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Valens Research

GM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 06 15

General Motors Company (GM:USA) currently trades near historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 17.4x Uniform P/E, implying somewhat bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about margins, autonomous vehicles, and costs

Specifically, management may lack confidence in the sustainability of EBIT adjusted margin at current levels, and may have concerns about their negative free cash flow resulting from incremental capital spending to support their new truck launches and GEM vehicles. Additionally, they may be concerned about their AV testing in New York and San Francisco, and may also be concerned about higher-than-expected commodity headwinds
Underlying
General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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