Report
Valens Research

GPK - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 02 09

 Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK:USA) currently trades above historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 24.8x Uniform P/E, implying bullish expectations for the firm. However, management has concerns about costs, margins, and their planned partnership

 Specifically, management may be exaggerating their ability to redistribute the majority of the Santa Clara CRB into their Midwest CRB and CUK mills following the mill's closure, and may be concerned about the impact of increasing freight costs when shipping to the West Coast. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to increase their exposure to the growing foodservice market, and may also lack confidence in their claim that the partnership with International Paper has strong EBITDA margin potential
Underlying
Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding is a provider of paper-based packaging solutions for a range of products to food, beverage, foodservice and other consumer products companies. The company's segments are: Paperboard Mills, which produces primarily coated-recycled paperboard, coated unbleached kraft paperboard, and solid bleached sulfate paperboard; Americas Paperboard Packaging, which includes paperboard packaging, primarily folding cartons, sold to Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies, and cups, among others; and Europe Paperboard Packaging, which includes paperboard packaging, primarily folding cartons, sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets in Europe.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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