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Valens Research

HCA - Valens Credit Report - 2021 03 09

CDS markets are slightly overstating credit risk with a CDS of 115bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 72bps, while cash bond markets are overstating credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 2.332% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.452%. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating HCA's fundamental credit risk with its Ba1 rating two notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) rating

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. HCA's compensation framework should drive management to focus on top-line growth and margin expansion. Moreover, management members are significant holders of HCA equity, indicating they are likely well-aligned with shareholders for long-term value creation. In addition, management members are not well-compensated in a change-in-control, suggesting they may not be incentivized to accept a takeover or pursue a buyout of the firm, limiting event risk

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q4 2020 earnings call (02/07) highlights that management is confident their technology initiatives will yield profitability over time, their capital growth projects achieve a high percentage of their expected returns, and that lowering their leverage ratio is a focus of their current capital budgeting
Underlying
HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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