Report
Valens Research

HES - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 05 18

Hess Corporation (HES) currently trades below corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 14.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve to 8%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to expand to 15% in 2023, along with 5% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, this level of performance is likely unsustainable going forward given the highly cyclical nature of oil and gas pricing.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about profitability, production levels, and oil field projects.
Underlying
Hess Corporation

Hess is a global exploration and production company engaged in exploration, development, production, transportation, purchase and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquid (NGL), and natural gas with production operations located primarily in the United States, Guyana, the Malaysia/Thailand Joint Development Area, Malaysia and Denmark. The company's Midstream operating segment provides fee-based services, including gathering, compressing and processing natural gas and fractionating NGL; gathering, terminaling, loading and transporting crude oil and NGL; storing and terminaling propane, and water handling services primarily in the Bakken shale play in the Williston Basin area of North Dakota.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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