Report
Valens Research

HLT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 03 15

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) currently trades above corporate but below historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 34.3x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 116%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 65% in 2022, accompanied by 85% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $1101, representing significant potential equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about demand, growth, and margins.
Underlying
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc

Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in hospitality with operations organized in two operating segments: management and franchise, which includes all of the hotels the company manages for third-party owners, as well as all franchised hotels operated or managed by someone other than the company; and Ownership, which includes hotels that the company owned or leased or that are owned or leased by entities in which the company owns a noncontrolling financial interest. Hilton Honors is the company's guest loyalty program that rewards guests with points for each stay at nearly all of its properties, which are then redeemable for free nights and other goods and services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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