Report
Valens Research

MPC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 02 04

 Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC:USA) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.6x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, but management is confident about their opportunities to unlock value, oil production, and their run rate synergies
 Specifically, management is confident they are continuing to evaluate opportunities to unlock value in the midstream business and that they are looking at various segments to determine their values through Project Uplift. Moreover, they are confident they are bullish on the numbers and forecasts out of their Gulf of Mexico production, they are growing Speedway merchandise sales volume, and that they will exceed targeted run rate synergies for 2019. Finally, management is confident their St. Paul Park refinery was able to maintain maximum crude rates by exporting gas oil and that they are targeting an allocation of 75% of their capital to their Logistics & Storage business
Underlying
Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum is an independent petroleum refining and marketing, retail and midstream company. The company's segments include: Refining and Marketing, which refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries, purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products; Retail, which sells transportation fuels and convenience products in the retail market across the U.S.; and Midstream, which transports, stores, distributes and markets crude oil and refined products via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges, gathers, processes and transports natural gas, and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores and markets natural gas liquids.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch