- Cash bond markets are materially overstating MDR's credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 5.929% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 3.809%, and an Intrinsic CDS of 190bps. Furthermore, Moody's is materially overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, treating them as a high-yield B1 credit, five notches lower than Valens' IG4 (Baa2) rating
- Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights positive signals for debt holders. MDR's compensation metrics should drive management to focus on all three value drivers, leading to UAFRS-based ROA expansion and increased cash flows available for servicing debt obligations
- MDR currently trades below historical averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.1x Uniform P/B. However, with valuations having rebounded materially in the past two years, the firm is no longer trading below book value, suggesting the potential for further equity upside driven by improving credit perceptions is limited
McDermott International is a provider of integrated engineering, procurement, construction and installation, front-end engineering and design and module fabrication services for upstream field developments worldwide. The company delivers fixed and floating production facilities, pipeline installations and subsea systems from concept to commissioning for offshore and subsea oil and gas projects. The company supports its activities with project management and procurement services, while utilizing its capabilities in both shallow water and deepwater construction. The company operates across the Americas, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia.
In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:
We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.
The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.
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