Report
Valens Research

MEG:CAN - Valens Credit Report - 2018 03 14

While cash bond markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a YTW of 10.591% relative to an iCDS of 264bps and an iYTW of 5.301%, Moody's is materially overstating MEG:CAN's fundamental credit risk, with their high-yield B3 credit rating six notches lower than Valens' XO (Baa3) rating Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that MEG's management compensation framework is positive for credit holders, as it should incentivize them to improve margins, turns, and revenue growth. Also, with low change-in-control compensation, management is not incentivized to pursue a sale or accept a buyout of the business, limiting event risk. Furthermore, as CEO McCaffrey is a material holder of MEG equity relative to his annual compensation, he will likely be able to influence other members of management to act in line with shareholder interests, leading to long-term value creation MEG currently trades near historical lows relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Assets, with a 1.1x Uniform P/B. At these valuations, the market is pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to rebound from current 3% levels in 2017 to 11% by 2022, accompanied by 10% Uniform Asset shrinkage going forward

Underlying
MEG Energy Corp.

MEG Energy is engaged in a steam assisted gravity drainage oil sands development at its 80 section Christina Lake Regional Project. As of Dec 31 2010, Co. had total proved bitumen reserves of 605.9 gross thousand barrels (470.5 net thousand barrels).

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch