Report
Valens Research

MSFT - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 08 06

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT:USA) currently trades at historical highs relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 23.7x Uniform P/E. However, even at these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may be concerned about product demand, the sustainability of their market share, and revenue growth.

Specifically, management may be concerned about their ability to maintain their market position in commercial cloud, and they may lack confidence in the value LiveOps brings to software developers. Furthermore, they may be concerned about competition to their Power Platform and about the sustainability of recent Xbox Live MAU growth. Moreover, they may be concerned about the sustainability of tailwinds related to their termination of support for SQL and Windows 2008, and may lack confidence in their ability to meet Windows OEM revenue growth targets.
Underlying
Microsoft Corporation

Microsoft is a technology company. The company develops and supports software, services, devices, and solutions. The company provides an array of services, including cloud-based solutions as well as solution support and consulting services. The company also delivers relevant online advertising. The company's products include operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; and video games. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells devices, including personal computers, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, other devices, and related accessories.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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