Report
Valens Research

MIDD - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 02

The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) currently trades near historical and corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 22.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to recover to only slightly below pre-COVID levels of 32%, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to expand to 35% by 2022, accompanied by 15% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $290, representing approximately 70% equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about performance sustainability, demand, and supply chain issues.
Underlying
Middleby Corporation

Middleby is engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and service of a line of foodservice equipment, food preparation, cooking, baking, chilling and packaging equipment, and kitchen equipment. The company's segments are: the Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group, which provides foodservice equipment to serve cooking, warming, refrigeration, freezing and beverage application within a commercial kitchen or foodservice operation; the Food Processing Equipment Group, which provides processing solutions for customers producing pre-cooked meat products; and the Residential Kitchen Equipment Group, which manufactures, sells and distributes kitchen equipment for the residential market.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch