MRNA - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 13
Moderna (MRNA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 17.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 16%, accompanied by 12% Uniform asset growth.
Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to also compress to 12% in 2022, albeit with 818% Uniform asset growth.
These levels would imply significant potential equity upside for the firm. That said, this growth is likely unsustainable going forward as it is tied to the spike in demand for the firm's breakthrough COVID vaccine.
Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may be concerned about guidance, the COVID vaccine, and their non-COVID portfolio.
Moderna is creating a new generation of medicines based on messenger RNA to improve the lives of patients. The company uses its platform to identify and develop new mRNA medicines. When the company identifies a combination of platform technologies or programs across mRNA technologies, delivery technologies, and manufacturing processes that can enable shared product features across multiple potential mRNA medicines, it groups those programs as a modality. The company has created six modalities including prohylactic vaccines; cancer vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology; localized regenerative therapeuctics; systemic secreted therapeutics; and systemic intracellular therapeutics.
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