Report
Valens Research

MOH - Valens Credit Report - 2022 09 28

Credit markets are materially overstating MOH's credit risk with a YTW of 6.156% and a CDS of 228bps, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 4.536% and an Intrinsic CDS of 78bps. Furthermore, Moody's is grossly overstating MOH's fundamental credit risk with its highly speculative Ba3 credit rating eight notches below Valens' IG3+ (A1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. That said, most management members are material owners of MOH equity relative to their average annual compensation, indicating that they are well-aligned with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company.
Underlying
Molina Healthcare Inc.

Molina Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides managed healthcare services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, and through the state insurance marketplaces. The company has two segments: Health Plans and Other. The company's health plans are operated by its respective wholly owned subsidiaries in those states, each of which is licensed as a health maintenance organization. The company's business includes: Medicaid, which provides health care and long-term care services and support to low-income Americans; and Medicare, which provides eligible persons age 65 and over and some disabled persons with a variety of hospital, medical insurance, and prescription drug benefits.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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