Report
Valens Research

MPWR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 15

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) currently trades above corporate and at a historical high relative to Uniform earnings, with a 79.7x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to a record-high of 89%, accompanied by 7% Uniform asset growth going forward.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to only improve to 24% by 2022, accompanied by 23% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $269, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their product initiatives and monetization.
Underlying
Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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