Report
Valens Research

MSM - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 11 18

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) currently trades near historical and below corporate averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 16.8x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to expand to 19% by 2023, accompanied by 4% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $123, representing approximately 44% equity upside for the firm.

That said, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their e-commerce channel, margins, and supply chain.
Underlying
MSC Industrial Direct Co. Inc. Class A

MSC Industrial Direct Co. is a distributor of metalworking and maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) products and services. The company provides stock-keeping units through its eCommerce channels, including its website, mscdirect.com; its inventory management solutions; catalogs and brochures; and call-centers and branches. The company's range of MRO products includes cutting tools, measuring instruments, tooling components, metalworking products, fasteners, flat stock, raw materials, abrasives, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
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  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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