NOVN-CHE - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 09 10
Novartis AG (NOVN:CHE) currently trades below corporate averages relative toUAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 13.8x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Moreover, management has concerns about the progression of their MS, Canakinumab and BAF312 studies, and their manufacturing capabilities
Specifically, management may be concerned about upcoming label negotiations with the FDA to characterize secondary progressive MS, and they may be exaggerating the differentiation between their EXPAND MS study and other relapsing MS studies. Additionally, they may lack confidence in their ability to reduce disability progression in a SPMS population in their BAF312 study, and they may be exaggerating advancements in their therapy programs. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to find single-agent activity to progress their immune-oncology portfolio, and to target a patient subpopulation that would advance their Canakinumab study. Finally, they may lack confidence in their ability to build long-term manufacturing capabilities
Novartis is a multinational healthcare group based in Switzerland. Co. provides healthcare solutions that address the evolving needs of patients and societies worldwide. Co.'s broad portfolio includes innovative medicines, eye care products and cost-saving generic pharmaceuticals. Co.'s operations are organized along three operating divisions: Innovative Medicines Division; Sandoz Division; and Alcon Division. Co.'s operations are supported by the Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research and Novartis Business Services.
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