Report
Valens Research

POST - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 10 11

Post Holdings Inc. (POST:USA) is currently trading near corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 21.4x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, but management is confident about their pricing model, growth, and earnings.

Specifically, management is confident they were able to somewhat offset their revenue headwinds by realizing some opportunities, and they are confident they repatriate their UK earnings at rates in excess of the spot rate. Moreover, they are confident they experienced robust growth in their egg and potato product categories and that their foodservice egg profit performance was strong despite low egg market prices. Furthermore, they are confident the Michael Foods pricing model is reliable in various market conditions.
Underlying
Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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