Report
Valens Research

PG - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 02 04

Procter & Gamble (PG) currently trades above corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 30.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 49%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to maintain 35% levels through 2023, accompanied by immaterial Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $95, representing approximately 42% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about margins, brand strategy, and acquisitions.
Underlying
Procter & Gamble Company

Procter & Gamble provides consumer packaged goods. The company's products are sold primarily through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, wholesalers, baby stores, beauty stores, other stores and pharmacies. The company has five reportable segments: Beauty, which includes hair care, and skin and personal care products; Grooming, which includes shave care products; Health Care, which includes oral care and personal health care products; Fabric and Home Care, which includes fabric care and home care products; and Baby, Feminine and Family Care, which includes baby care, feminine care and family care products.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch