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Valens Research

STZ - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2020 10 27

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ:USA) currently trades near recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 23.0x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, but management is confident about the hard seltzer market, their ability to reduce leverage, and operating margin growth

Specifically, management is confident in their ability to continue reducing leverage, become a top three company in the hard seltzer market, and grow the Corona Brand family. In addition, they are confident operating margins grew last quarter that their run rate is unchanged. Moreover, management is confident in Canopy Growth's ability to improve free cash flow and that they are prepared for disruptions to their harvest
Underlying
Constellation Brands Inc. Class A

Constellation Brands is an international beverage alcohol company. The company is a producer and marketer of beer, wine and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, Italy and Canada. The company has two segments: Beer, in which the company is engaged in the U.S. beer market that includes the imported, craft, domestic super premium, and alternative beverage alcohol categories and it has the right to import, market and sell these Mexican beer brands in the U.S.; and Wine and Spirits, in which its wine portfolio is supported by grapes purchased from independent growers, primarily in the U.S., New Zealand and Chile, and vineyard holdings in the U.S., New Zealand and Italy.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
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Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

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