Report
Valens Research

TDG - Valens Credit Report - 2023 11 10

Credit markets are overstating credit risk, with a YTW of 7.536% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 6.396% and an Intrinsic CDS of 157bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating TDG's fundamental credit risk with its B1 credit rating four notches below Valens' XO (Baa3) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly negative signals for credit holders. However, most management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual average compensation, indicating they are less likely to pursue a takeover or sale of the company, reducing event risk for creditors.
Underlying
TransDigm Group Incorporated

TransDigm Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, produces and supplies aircraft components for use on commercial and military aircraft. The company's segments are: Power and Control, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that provide power to or control power of the aircraft utilizing electronic, fluid, power and mechanical motion control technologies; Airframe, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that are used in non-power airframe applications utilizing airframe and cabin structure technologies; and Non-aviation, which develops, produces and markets products for non-aviation markets.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

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