Report
Valens Research

TDG - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 23

TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) currently trades near both corporate and recent averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 25.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 61%, accompanied by 5% Uniform asset growth.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 59% in 2023, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $584, representing marginal equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about EBITDA, demand, M&A activity, and debt.
Underlying
TransDigm Group Incorporated

TransDigm Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, produces and supplies aircraft components for use on commercial and military aircraft. The company's segments are: Power and Control, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that provide power to or control power of the aircraft utilizing electronic, fluid, power and mechanical motion control technologies; Airframe, which develops, produces and markets systems and components that are used in non-power airframe applications utilizing airframe and cabin structure technologies; and Non-aviation, which develops, produces and markets products for non-aviation markets.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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