Report
Valens Research

UHS - Valens Credit Report - 2020 09 10

Cash bond markets are grossly overstating credit risk with a cash bond YTW of 4.115% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 1.505%, while CDS markets are slightly understating credit risk with a CDS of 68bps relative to an Intrinsic CDS of 120bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating UHS's fundamental credit risk, with its Ba1 rating three notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) rating

Incentives Dictate Behaviorâ„¢ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. Although a lack of leverage metrics may drive management to take on excess debt, UHS's compensation framework incentivizes them to focus on all three value drivers: growth, margins, and asset turnover, which should lead to Uniform ROA expansion
Underlying
Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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