Report
Valens Research

UAA - Valens Credit Report - 2023 01 27

Credit markets are overstating credit risk with a YTW of 6.324%andaCDSof248bps relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.570% and an Intrinsic CDS of 167bps.Furthermore, Moody's is overstating UAA's fundamental credit risk with its Ba2credit rating four notches below Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.

Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mixed signals for credit holders. Executive Chairman Plank and COO Browne are material owners of UAA equity relative to their annual compensation, indicating they could persuade other NEOs to align with shareholders to pursue long-term value creation for the company. Furthermore, most management members have low change-in-control compensation relative to their annual average compensation, indicating they are less likely to pursue a takeover or sale of the company, reducing event risk for creditors.

Earnings Call Forensics™ of the firm's Q2 2023 earnings call (11/3) highlights that management is confident they can compete in the athletic wear space and execute the strategic shift to see more sustainable and profitable growth. Furthermore, they are confident they can produce designs with clean aesthetics and cultural style as they develop more casual wear and can expand their current customer base. Lastly, they are confident they have invested in improving order management and point-of-sales systems at physical locations, that FX rates are becoming more favorable, and that declining air freight utilization will become a tailwind for the business in the third quarter.
Underlying
Under Armour Inc. Class A

Under Armour is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The company provides HEATGEAR?, which is designed to be worn in warm to hot temperatures under equipment or as a single layer; and COLDGEAR?, which is designed to wick moisture from the body while circulating body heat from hot spots to help maintain core body temperature. The company's footwear products include running, basketball, cleated sports, slides, training, and outdoor. The company provides digital fitness subscriptions, along with digital advertising through its MapMyFitness, MyFitnessPal and Endomondo applications.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

Analysts
Valens Research

Other Reports on these Companies
Other Reports from Valens Research

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch