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Valens Research

UNH - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 05 14

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH:USA) currently trades above corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 23.3x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has expectations for profitability to remain stable, but management may be concerned about their OptumCare platform, digital solutions, and the potential disruption of their Change Health acquisition

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to sustain adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth, maintain patient growth under their managed Medicaid programs, and increase fully capitated programs, particularly among OptumCare and Medicare Advantage (MA) plan patients. Moreover, they may have concerns about increases in behavioral health needs during the pandemic, Change Health's possible disruption on OptumInsight, and the collaborative capabilities of OptumCare and UnitedHealthcare. Furthermore, management may lack confidence in their ability to design innovative products for the commercial space, enhance their telehealth capabilities and digital solutions, and replicate patient experience from a physical environment to Optum Virtua
Underlying
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

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