Report
Valens Research

VGR - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 02 03

Vector Group Ltd. (VGR:USA) currently trades below corporate averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) earnings, with a 14.8x Uniform P/E. At these levels, the market has bearish expectations for the firm, and management may have concerns about the potential of Eagle 20, the Montego wholesale response, and revenue growth

Specifically, management may be overstating the long-term potential of Eagle 20, their satisfaction with the initial wholesale response to Montego, and their competitive advantages within the deep discount segment. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to sustain tobacco segment revenue growth and maintain the value of their market share exemption under the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA). Finally, they may have concerns about their pricing strategy in regard to Montego and Eagle 20
Underlying
Vector Group Ltd.

Vector Group is a holding company. The company is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the U.S. through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc. subsidiaries; and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC (New Valley) subsidiary. The company's business segments were Tobacco, and Real Estate. The Tobacco segment consists of the manufacture and sale of conventional cigarettes. The Real Estate segment includes the company's investment in New Valley, which includes Douglas Elliman, Escena, Sagaponack and investments in real estate ventures.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

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