Report
Valens Research

HCC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2019 08 14

Warrior Met Coal Inc, (HCC:USA) currently trades well below market average valuations relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings with a 3.8x Uniform P/E, implying bearish expectations for the firm. Also, management is concerned about sales guidance and volumes, steel prices, expenses, and future cash flow.

Valens' qualitative analysis of the firm's Q2 2019 earnings call highlights that management may be overstating their confidence in the trend in met coal sales volumes and revenue guidance.

Additionally, management may be downplaying concerns regarding steel index prices falling and the impact on demand. Also, management may be concerned with expense trends and FCF conversion trends going forward.
Underlying
Warrior Met Coal Inc.

Warrior Met Coal is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a producer and exporter of met coal. The company sells its coal product to steel producers in Europe and South America. The company's mining operations consist of two underground met coal mines in Southern Appalachia's coal seam (Mines No. 7 and No. 4) and other surface met and thermal coal mines. The company's natural gas operations remove and sell natural gas from the coal seams owned or leased by the company and others as a byproduct of coal production. The company's degasification operations improve mining operations and safety by reducing natural gas levels in its mines. The company also owns mineral rights for recoverable reserves at its Blue Creek Energy Mine.

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Valens Research
Valens Research

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