Report
Valens Research

WSO - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 20

Watsco, Inc. (WSO) currently trades near corporate yet above historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 1.9x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to fade to 2%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to compress to 22% by 2023, accompanied by 6% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $340, representing approximately 15% equity upside for the firm.

However, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about profitability and emission regulations.
Underlying
Watsco Inc.

Watsco is a distributor of air conditioning, heating and refrigeration equipment and related parts and supplies in North America. The products the company distributes consist of: equipment, including residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, gas, electric, and oil furnaces, commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems, and other equipment; parts, including replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; supplies, including thermostats, insulation material, refrigerants, ductwork, grills, registers, sheet metal, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tape, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies; and plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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Valens Research

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