Report
Valens Research

WEC - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 04 12

WEC Energy Group (WEC) currently trades above corporate and near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 41.2x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to improve to 7%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to remain below cost-of-capital levels through 2023, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $28, representing significant potential equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their growth recovery, regulation, and pandemic impacts.
Underlying
WEC Energy Group Inc

WEC Energy Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides regulated natural gas and electricity, and nonregulated renewable energy. The company's segments include: Wisconsin, which generates and distributes electric energy and provides retail natural gas distribution service; Illinois, which includes the natural gas utility operations; Electric Transmission, which owns, maintains, monitors, and operates electric transmission systems in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota; and Non-Utility Energy Infrastructure, which owns and leases generating facilities to its Wisconsin Electric Power Company subsidiary and owns underground natural gas storage facilities in Michigan.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

The integrity of Valens Research is founded in our disciplined processes and analytics. No “star” analysts. No corporate advisory relationships. No-nonsense opinions and recommendations.

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