Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.25 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

The good outweighs the bad

Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish. At the same time, biotech has succumbed to weakness within Health Care -- a point for the bears as it is one aspect that puts a damper on risk sentiment. Overall the good outweighs the bad and our positive outlook remains intact.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are contemplating a downgrade of Health Care to underweight and an upgrade of Services to overweight. We delve into what it would take in order for us to make these changes and highlight two actionable Services stocks: FIS and NCR... see pages 2-4.

• Several key risk-on areas join the breakout party. Several important cogs critical to the health of the economy and equity market are breaking out, including equal-weighted Financials, global Financials, global autos, and Dow Transports. Such developments are characteristic of bull markets and improves our overall outlook... see page 5.

• Small vs. Large. Despite virtually identical gains for small- and large-caps off of the December 24th lows, small-caps remain below key resistance. Nonetheless, the small- vs. large-cap ratio is back at logical support... see page 6.

• Gold losing its luster. Gold prices have broken below $1,280 support and gold miners (GDX, GDXJ) are similarly breaking down... see page 6.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: CD-04 Auto Dealers, FN-24 Asset Management & Custody Banks, Large-Cap, FN-25 Asset Management & Custody Banks, Mid-Cap, and MF-12 Auto Parts, Large-Cap... see pages 13-30.
Underlyings
Adient plc

Affiliated Managers Group Inc.

Affiliated Managers Group is a global asset management company with equity investments in boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The company provides centralized capabilities to its Affiliates, including strategy, marketing and distribution, and product development. Through its Affiliates, the company provides strategies designed to assist institutional, retail and clients worldwide in achieving their investment objectives. The company provides boutique investment management services to retail investors through advisory and sub-advisory services to return-oriented mutual funds, Undertakings for the Collective Investment of Transferable Securities, collective investment trusts and other retail products.

America's Car-Mart Inc.

America's Car-Mart is an automotive retailer focused on the Integrated Auto Sales and Finance segment of the used car market. The company's operations are principally conducted through its two operating subsidiaries, America's Car Mart, Inc. and Colonial Auto Finance, Inc. The company primarily sells older model used vehicles and provides financing for substantially all of its customers. The company purchases vehicles primarily from wholesalers, new car dealers, individuals and auctions. The company provides financing to substantially all of its customers who purchase a vehicle at one of its dealerships. A majority of the company's customers make their payments in person at the dealership where they purchased their vehicle.

Ameriprise Financial Inc.

Ameriprise Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of products and services to individual and institutional clients. The company's segments are: Advice and Wealth Management, which provides financial planning and advice, as well as brokerage services, to retail clients through its advisors; Asset Management, which provides investment management, advice and products to clients through the Columbia Threadneedle Investments? brand; Annuities, which provides variable and fixed annuity products to clients; and Protection, which provides products to address the protection and risk management needs of the company's retail clients including life, disability income insurance.

Apollo Global Management Inc. Class A

Apollo Global Management is an alternative investment manager. The company's primary business is to raise, invest and manage credit, private equity and real assets funds as well as strategic investment accounts. The company has three business segments: Credit, which invests in non-control corporate and structured debt instruments including performing, stressed and distressed investments across the capital structure; Private equity, which invests in control equity and related debt instruments, convertible securities and distressed debt investments; and Real assets, which invests in real estate equity and infrastructure equity for the acquisition and recapitalization of real estate and infrastructure assets.

Aptiv PLC

Ares Capital Corporation

Ares Capital is a finance company that is a closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to generate both current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. The company invests primarily in United States middle-market companies. The company invests primarily in first lien senior secured loans (including unitranche loans, which are loans that combine both senior and mezzanine debt, generally in a first lien position), second lien senior secured loans and mezzanine debt, which in some cases includes an equity component. To a lesser extent, the company also make preferred and/or common equity investments.

Autoliv Inc.

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

BLACKROCK INC.

BlackRock is an investment management firm. The company provides a range of investment and technology services to institutional and retail clients worldwide. Products are provided directly and through intermediaries in a variety of vehicles, including open-end and closed-end mutual funds, iShares? exchange-traded funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts and other pooled investment vehicles. The company also provides technology services, including the investment and risk management technology platform, Aladdin?, Aladdin Wealth, eFront, Cachematrix and FutureAdvisor, as well as advisory services and solutions to a base of institutional and wealth management clients.

Blackstone Group Inc.

Blackstone Group, together with its subsidiaries, is a global manager of private capital. The alternative asset management business includes the management of private equity funds, real estate funds, real estate investment trusts, funds of hedge funds, hedge funds, credit-focused funds, collateralized loan obligation vehicles, separately managed accounts and registered investment companies (collectively referred to as the Blackstone Funds). The company's business is organized into four segments: Real Estate, Private Equity, Hedge Fund Solutions and Credit.

BorgWarner Inc.

BorgWarner is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global product provider in technology solutions for combustion, hybrid and electric vehicles. The company manufactures and sells these products worldwide, primarily to original equipment manufacturers of light vehicles (passenger cars, sport-utility vehicles, vans and light trucks). The company's segments are: Engine, which provides turbochargers, eBoosters, timing systems, emissions systems, thermal systems, gasoline ignition technology, cabin heaters, battery heaters and battery charging; and Drivetrain, which provides rotating electrical components, power electronics, clutching systems, control modules and all-wheel drive systems.

CarMax Inc.

CarMax is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a retailer of used vehicles. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers; and CarMax Auto Finance, which consists of finance operation that provides vehicle financing to customer buying retail vehicles from the company The company's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans, reconditioning and service, and customer credit.

Eaton Corp. Plc

Federated Hermes Inc. Class B

Federated Hermes is a provider of investment management products and related financial services. The company sponsors, markets and provides investment-related services to various investment products, including sponsored investment companies and other funds (Federated Funds) and Separate Accounts. The company markets these funds to banks, broker/dealers and other financial intermediaries who use them to meet the needs of customers and/or clients, including retail investors, corporations and retirement plans. The company also provides a range of services to support the operation and administration of the Federated Funds. These services include administrative services and shareholder servicing.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services is a provider of technology solutions for merchants, banks, and capital markets firms globally. The company's solutions include merchant acquiring solutions; payment solutions; global eCommerce solutions; processing and ancillary applications solutions; digital solutions; fraud, risk management and compliance solutions; electronic funds transfer and network services solutions; card and retail payment solutions; wealth and retirement solutions; item processing and output services solutions; securities processing and finance solutions; global trading solutions; asset management and insurance solutions; and corporate liquidity solutions.

First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund

Group 1 Automotive Inc.

Group 1 Automotive is an operator in the automotive retail industry. Through its dealerships, the company sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges related vehicle financing, sells service and insurance contracts, provides automotive maintenance and repair services, and sells vehicle parts. The company sells retail used vehicles directly to its customers at its dealerships or via its internet sites and wholesale used vehicles at auctions. The company sells replacement parts and provides both warranty and non-warranty maintenance and repair services, as well as provides collision repair services at the collision centers that the company operates. The company also sells parts to wholesale customers.

Invesco Ltd.

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Financials ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF

iShares Global Financials ETF

iShares U.S. Healthcare Provid

Janus Henderson Group PLC

Janus Henderson Group is a global investment manager. Co. manages a range of investment products for institutional and retail investors, across five capabilities, being European Equities, Global Equities, Global Fixed Income, Multi-Asset and Alternatives, including Private Equity and Property. Management operates across product lines, distribution channels and geographic regions. All investment product types are sold in most, if not all, of these regions and are managed in various locations. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had total assets under management of £101.00 billion.

Johnson Controls International plc

Lear Corporation

Lear is a supplier to the automotive industry. The company supplies seating, electrical distribution systems and electronic modules, as well as related sub-systems, components and software, to automotive manufacturers. The company has two segments: Seating, which consists of the design, development, engineering, just-in-time assembly and delivery of seat systems, and the design, development, engineering and manufacture of seat components; and E-Systems, which consists of the design, development, engineering and manufacture of electrical distribution systems, and electronic control modules, electrification products, connectivity products and software solutions for the cloud, vehicles and mobile devices.

Legg Mason Inc.

Legg Mason is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an asset management company that provides investment management and related products and services. The company's investment advisory services include discretionary and non-discretionary management of separate investment accounts for institutional and individual investors. The company's investment products include proprietary mutual funds ranging from money market and other liquidity products to fixed income, equity and alternative funds managed in various investment styles. The company also provides other domestic and offshore funds to both retail and institutional investors, privately placed real estate funds, hedge funds, and funds-of-hedge funds.

Lithia Motors Inc. Class A

Lithia Motors is a providers of personal transportation solutions. The company's segments are Domestic, Import and Luxury. The company's Domestic segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured by Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. The company's Import segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Volkswagen. The company's Luxury segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. The franchises in each segment also sell used vehicles, parts and automotive services, and automotive finance and insurance products.

LPL Financial Holdings Inc.

LPL Financial Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the retail financial advice market and independent broker-dealer. The company's product and solution access includes: Commission-Based Products, which include variable and fixed annuities, mutual funds, equities, and insurance, among others; Fee-Based Advisory Platforms and Support, which include wrap-fee programs, mutual fund asset allocation programs, financial planning services, and retirement plan consulting services; and Cash Sweep Programs, which manage their clients' cash balances through a money market sweep vehicle involving money market fund providers and insured sweep vehicles involving banks.

Magna International Inc.

Magna is a global automotive supplier whose product capabilities include producing body, chassis, exterior, seating, powertrain, electronic, vision, closure and roof systems and modules, as well as vehicle engineering and contract manufacturing. Co.'s operations are segmented on a geographic basis. Co.'s segments consist of North America, Europe, Asia and Rest of World.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF

NCR Corporation

NCR is a software- and services-led enterprise provider in the financial, retail, hospitality and telecommunications and technology industries. The company is an enterprise provider selling a portfolio of digital first software, services, hardware and payments. The company's segments include: Banking, which includes automated teller machines and payment processing hardware and software; Retail, which provides solutions that primarily include retail-oriented technologies, such as point of sale (POS) terminals and POS software; Hospitality, which provides solutions that include POS hardware and software solutions; and Other, which includes telecommunications and technology solutions.

SEI Investments Company

SEI Investments is holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of investment processing, investment management and investment operations solutions. The company's segments are: private banks, which provides outsourced investment processing and investment management platforms; investment advisors, which provides investment management and investment processing platforms; institutional investors, which provides investment management and administrative outsourcing platforms; investment managers, which provides investment operations outsourcing solutions; and investments in new businesses, which focuses on providing investment management solutions to families residing in the U.S.

Select Sector SPDR-Health Care

State Street Corporation

State Street is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial products and services to institutional investors. The company's clients include mutual funds, collective investment funds and other investment pools, corporate and public retirement plans, insurance companies, foundations, endowments and investment managers. The company's Investment Servicing line of business performs custody and related functions, such as providing institutional investors with clearing, settlement and payment services. The company's Investment Management line of business, through State Street Global Advisors, provides a range of investment management strategies and products for its clients.

Stratex Oil & Gas Holdings

T. Rowe Price Group

T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company that provides global investment management services. The company provide a range of United States mutual funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other T. Rowe Price products. The company also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; and trust services. The company also provide non-discretionary advisory planning services to fund shareholders and potential investors.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

UnitedHealth Group is a health care company. The company has four reportable segments across its two business platforms, UnitedHealthcare and Optum: UnitedHealthcare, which provides health care benefits to an array of customers and markets through its UnitedHealthcare Employer & Individual, UnitedHealthcare Medicare & Retirement, UnitedHealthcare Community & State and UnitedHealthcare Global; OptumHealth, which serves the physical, emotional and health-related financial needs of individuals; OptumInsight, which provides services, technology and health care knowledge to main participants in the health care industry; and OptumRx, which provides pharmacy care services and programs.

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

W. P. Carey Inc.

W. P. Carey is an internally-managed diversified real estate investment trust (REIT). The company's business operates in two segments: Real Estate, in which the company invests in commercial real estate properties that are net-leased to tenants, primarily located in the U.S. and Northern and Western Europe; and Investment Management, in which the company manages tjhe portfolios of certain non-traded investment programs through its investment management business, non-traded REITs that have invested in lodging and lodging-related properties, and a private limited partnership formed for the purpose of developing, owning, and operating student housing properties and similar investments in Europe.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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