Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.37 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom

While panic selling has occurred during a few sessions over the past month (back-to-back 80%+ NYSE downside volume days, and two other 90%+ downside volume days), we maintained that buying demand, or panic buying, was needed before we could signal that a bottom had been made. We finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE. There is hope that this panic buying could signal that a major bottom is in place, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in. Additionally, if last week's low of 3858 on the S&P 500 does not hold, then all bets are off and we would go back to a bearish outlook.

Waiting for Confirmation. A 90%+ NYSE upside volume day was one of three things we wanted to see in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. The other two that we have yet to see are (1) bullish price inflections on the major averages, and (2) steep RS uptrend violations on the Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) Sectors. We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); a break above the 6-week downtrend (currently $314-$315) would indicate a meaningful bounce and potential major bottom... see chart below and page 3.
US Dollar, 10-Year Treasury Yield, High Yield Spreads. The perpetually strong US dollar (DXY), rapidly rising Treasury yields, and widening high yield spreads have been major risk-off signals for global equities. We will want to see the US dollar fall to, and stay below, $104, the 10-yr Treasury yield stay below 3.0%, and high yield spreads get and stay below 375 bps, in order to have further confirmation that the broad equity market is bottoming... see page 4.
Big Picture Trends. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has pulled back to 4-year base support at $170, a critical line in the sand moving forward. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is attempting to hold at $297, an important level from 2020-2021. Value displays a major long-term reversal; remain overweight value relative to growth. ARKK is testing long-term support at $35. Bitcoin and Ethereum are testing key supports as well, at 29,000 and 1700, respectively... see charts below and pages 5-6.
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Asbury Automotive Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an automotive retailer. The company's stores provide automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; parts and service, including vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts and collision repair services; and finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection debt cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. The company's new vehicle franchise retail network is made up of dealerships operating under locally-branded dealership groups.

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

Campbell Soup Company

Campbell Soup is a manufacturer and marketer of food and beverage products. The company's reportable segments are: Meals and Beverages, which includes the retail and foodservice businesses in the United States and Canada, and the meals and shelf-stable beverages business in Latin America; Snacks, which consists of Pepperidge Farm cookies, crackers, fresh bakery and frozen products in United States retail, including Milano cookies and Goldfish crackers, and Snyder's of Hanover pretzels, Lance sandwich crackers, Cape Cod and Kettle Brand potato chips, Late July snacks, Snack Factory Pretzel Crisps, Pop Secret popcorn, Emerald nuts, and other snacking products in the United States and Canada.

Conagra Brands Inc.

Conagra Brands is a packaged goods food company. The company's segments are: Grocery and Snacks, which includes branded, shelf stable food products sold in various retail channels; Refrigerated and Frozen, which includes branded, temperature controlled food products sold in various retail channels; International, which includes branded food products sold in retail and foodservice channels outside of the U.S.; Foodservice, which includes customized food products for sale to restaurants and other foodservice establishments; Pinnacle Foods, which includes and private-label food products; and Commercial Foods, which included commercially branded and private label food and ingredients, among others.

General Mills Inc.

General Mills manufactures and markets branded consumer foods. The company's segments are: North America Retail, which provides cereals, refrigerated yogurt, soup, meal kits, dessert and baking mixes, frozen pizza and pizza snacks, grain, fruit and savory snacks, and organic products, among others; Convenience Stores and Foodservice, which provides snacks, yogurt, frozen meals and frozen dough products, and baking mixes, among others; Europe and Australia, which includes retail and foodservice businesses in the Europe and Australia region; Asia and Latin America, which consists of retail and foodservice businesses in the Asia and South America regions; and Pets, which includes pet food products.

Genuine Parts Company

Genuine Parts is engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts, and business products. The company's reportable business segments are: Automotive, which distributes automotive parts and accessory items and provides inventory, cataloging, marketing, training and other programs to the automotive aftermarket; Industrial, which distributes industrial replacement parts and related supplies such as bearings, mechanical and electrical power transmission products, industrial automation, and hose, among others; and Business Products, which is engaged in the wholesale distribution of a line of office and other business-related products through a customer base of resellers.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.

Group 1 Automotive is an operator in the automotive retail industry. Through its dealerships, the company sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges related vehicle financing, sells service and insurance contracts, provides automotive maintenance and repair services, and sells vehicle parts. The company sells retail used vehicles directly to its customers at its dealerships or via its internet sites and wholesale used vehicles at auctions. The company sells replacement parts and provides both warranty and non-warranty maintenance and repair services, as well as provides collision repair services at the collision centers that the company operates. The company also sells parts to wholesale customers.

Hormel Foods Corporation

Hormel Foods is primarily engaged in the production of meat and food products and the marketing of those products throughout the United States and internationally. The company's segments are: Grocery Products, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of shelf-stable food products; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken, and turkey products; Jennie-O Turkey Store, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products; and International and Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation that manufactures, markets, and sells the company's products internationally.

Kellogg Company

Kellogg is engaged in the manufacture and marketing of ready-to-eat cereal and convenience foods. The company's principal products are snacks, such as crackers, savory snacks, toaster pastries, cereal bars, granola bars and bites; and convenience foods, such as, ready-to-eat cereals, frozen waffles, veggie foods and noodles. The company's snacks brands are marketed under brands such as Kellogg's, Cheez-It, Pringles, Austin, Parati, and RXBAR. The company's cereals and cereal bars are generally marketed under the Kellogg's name, with some under the Kashi and Bear Naked brands. The company's frozen foods are marketed under the Eggo and Morningstar Farms brands.

Kraft Heinz Company

Kraft Heinz is a food and beverage company. The company manufactures and markets food and beverage products, including condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products throughout the world. The company has three reportable segments defined by geographic region: United States, Canada, and Europe, Middle East, and Africa. The company's remaining businesses are combined and disclosed as Rest of World. Rest of World comprises two operating segments: Latin America and Asia Pacific.

Lakes Oil N.L.

Lakes Oil is engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and investment. Co. has two reportable segments. Co.'s first segment is engaged in the exploration for hydrocarbon reserves, principally in on-shore regions of Victoria, Australia. Co.'s second segment is engaged in the investment in entities engaged in exploration for energy reserves.

Mondelez International Inc. Class A

Mondelez International sells food and beverage products. The company makes and sells primarily snacks, including biscuits (cookies, crackers and salted snacks), chocolate, gum and candy, as well as various cheese and grocery and powdered beverage products. The company's portfolio includes snack brands such as Cadbury, Milka and Toblerone chocolate; Oreo, belVita and LU biscuits; Halls candy; Trident gum and Tang powdered beverages. The company's operations and management structure are organized into four operating segments: Latin America; Asia, Middle East and Africa; Europe; and North America. The company sells its products to supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, value stores and other retail food outlets.

Penske Automotive Group Inc.

Penske Automotive Group is a transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships and distributes commercial vehicles, diesel engines, gas engines, power systems and related parts and services. The company has four segments: Retail Automotive, consisting of its retail automotive dealership operations; Retail Commercial Truck, consisting of its retail commercial truck dealership operations in the United States and Canada; Other, consisting of its commercial vehicle and power systems distribution operations and other non-automotive consolidated operations; and Non-Automotive Investments, consisting of its equity method investments in non-automotive operations.

SM Energy Company

SM Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, gas, and natural gas liquids in the state of Texas. The company's operations are concentrated in the Midland Basin and South Texas.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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