Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.06 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Indexes Testing Critical Supports
The false breakout in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and subsequent break below $230 tells us that the mixed market environment is back, and we no longer see a broad-based bull market. While there continues to be attractive pockets of strength, we are neutral overall. Market dynamics have deteriorated along with the major averages, and many are testing critical supports; as long as supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead.
Major US and Global Indexes Testing Critical Supports. Critical support levels we are watching include 4545 and the 50-day MA on the S&P 500, $383 and the 50-day MA on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $208 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), $135 on Russell Micro Caps (IWC), $76.50 on MSCI EAFE (EFA), and $54 on MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX). If supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. However, if supports start to break we would turn bearish as we would expect a more significant correction... see charts below and pages 2-3.
Concerning Developments in Crude Oil, High Yield Spreads, and Treasury Yields. Market dynamics have deteriorated alongside the major averages. (1) WTI crude oil broke below $76 long-term support. (2) High yield spreads have widened to levels last seen in February. (3) Treasury yields are flirting with breakdowns below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield... see pages 5-6.
Semiconductors & Homebuilders Bullish, Airlines Bearish. Semiconductors (SOXX, XSD) and homebuilders (ITB, XHB) remain near multi-month price and RS highs; this tells us any pullback in the broad market is likely to be of the "normal" 5-10% variety. On the other hand, global airlines (JETS) have broken below the major $21.50 support level, a concerning sign for reopening stocks -- avoid... see page 7.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish as long as it remains above supports at 4500-4545, which coincides with the 50-day MA. If there is a break below 4500, the next supports to watch include 4450 followed by 4350.
In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary: CD-01 Major Auto Manufacturers, CD-05 Retailers, Auto Parts, CD-06 Homebuilding, Large-Cap, and CD-39 Manufactured Housing... see pages 14-25.
Underlyings
Advance Auto Parts Inc.

Advance Auto Parts is an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional), and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers as well as independently owned operators. The company's stores and branches provide a range selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. Through its integrated operating approach, the company serves its Professional and DIY customers through a variety of channels ranging from brick and mortar store locations to self-service e-commerce sites.

AutoZone Inc.

AutoZone is a retailer and a distributor of automotive replacement parts and accessories. The company operates stores in the United States, including Puerto Rico and Saint Thomas, Mexico, and Brazil. Each store carries a product line for cars, sport utility vehicles, vans and light trucks, including new and remanufactured automotive hard parts, maintenance items, accessories and non-automotive products. In addition, the company has a commercial sales program that provides commercial credit and delivery of parts and other products to local, regional and national repair garages, dealers, service stations and public sector accounts. The company also sells the ALLDATA brand automotive diagnostic and repair software.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Daimler AG

Daimler provides a range of transportation products, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles, and also financial services. Co. operates in five segments. Mercedes-Benz Cars sells passenger cars and off-road vehicles under the Mercedes-Benz brand and small cars under the smart brand. The Daimler Trucks distributes its trucks (Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner, FUSO, Western Star, Thomas Built Buses and BharatBenz). The vans of the Mercedes-Benz Vans segment are sold under the brand name Mercedes-Benz and Freightliner. Daimler Buses sells completely built-up buses (Mercedes-Benz and Setra). The Daimler Financial Services division supports sales of Co.'s automotive brands.

Ferrari NV

Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor designs, manufactures, markets, and services a line of Ford cars, trucks, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln vehicles, as well as provides financial services through its subsidiary, Ford Motor Credit Company LLC. The company is engaged in electrification; mobility solutions, including self-driving services; and connected vehicle services. The company has three operating segments: Automotive, which includes the sale of Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories; Mobility, which includes its autonomous vehicles and its investment in mobility through Ford Smart Mobility LLC; and Ford Credit, which includes vehicle-related financing and leasing activities.

General Motors Company

General Motors designs, builds and sells trucks, crossovers, cars and automobile parts. The company also provides automotive financing services through its subsidiary, General Motors Financial Company, Inc. (GM Financial). GM Financial provides retail loan and lease lending across the credit spectrum. GM Financial provides commercial lending products to dealers including new and used vehicle inventory floorplan financing and dealer loans, which are loans to finance improvements to dealership facilities, to provide working capital, and to purchase and/or finance dealership real estate. Other commercial lending products include financing for parts and accessories, dealer fleets and storage centers.

Genuine Parts Company

Genuine Parts is engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts, and business products. The company's reportable business segments are: Automotive, which distributes automotive parts and accessory items and provides inventory, cataloging, marketing, training and other programs to the automotive aftermarket; Industrial, which distributes industrial replacement parts and related supplies such as bearings, mechanical and electrical power transmission products, industrial automation, and hose, among others; and Business Products, which is engaged in the wholesale distribution of a line of office and other business-related products through a customer base of resellers.

Lakes Oil N.L.

Lakes Oil is engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and investment. Co. has two reportable segments. Co.'s first segment is engaged in the exploration for hydrocarbon reserves, principally in on-shore regions of Victoria, Australia. Co.'s second segment is engaged in the investment in entities engaged in exploration for energy reserves.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

O'Reilly Automotive Inc.

O'Reilly Automotive is a retailer of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories, selling its products to both do-it-yourself and service provider customers. The company's stores carry a product line, including: new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting, oil and wiper blades; and accessories, such as floor mats, seat covers and truck accessories.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Skyline Champion Corporation

Skyline Champion is a producer of factory-built housing in the United States and Canada. The company serves as a solution provider across complementary and vertically integrated businesses including manufactured construction, company-owned retail locations, and transportation logistics services. The company produces a range of manufactured and modular homes under a variety of brand names and in a variety of floor plans and price ranges. While most of the homes the company builds are single-family, multi-section, ranch-style homes, it also builds two-story, single-section, and Cape Cod style homes as well as multi-family units such as town homes, apartments, duplexes, and triplexes.

Tata Motors Limited Sponsored ADR

Tesla Inc

Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.

TOL Gases Limited

Toyota Motor ADS

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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