Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 45.90 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact

Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market. As discussed last week, 5-6% pullbacks to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market, and this pullback appears to be no different... see chart below.

Major Risk-On Developments. Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued over the past week, including the S&P 500 gapping-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above the key $434 and $199 levels, breakdowns for Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and key commodities (WTI crude oil and gasoline), Energy (XLE) with a bearish false breakout and RS breakdown, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) breaking out of a 2-year base, China (MCHI, KWEB) reversing 1+ year price and RS downtrends, semiconductors (SMH, SOXX) and biotechnology (XBI) breaking above their 2-month downtrends, and ARKW and ARKF breaking above their 1-month downtrends. This is all very clear evidence that supports our bullish overall outlook moving forward... see charts below and pages 3-6.
Downgrading Health Care to Underweight. We are downgrading Health Care to underweight due to RS on equal-weighted Health Care (RSPH) decisively breaking to multi-year lows – reduce exposure... see pages 2, 7, and 11-12.
S&P 500, Equal-Weighted S&P 500. 4920-4950 remains support on the S&P 500 as our expectation for a new (less-steep) uptrend plays out. Additionally, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) remains above major $158 support (the prior all-time high from January 2022, when adjusted for dividends). In order for there to be a deeper pullback, the S&P 500 and RSP would need to break below these levels first... see chart below.
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

Ardmore Shipping

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

Brookdale Senior Living is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an operator of senior living communities. The company's Community offerings include: independent living, which is for middle to upper income seniors; assisted living and memory care, which provides housing and assistance to mid-acuity frail and elderly residents; and continuing care retirement, which provides living arrangements and services to accommodate various physical ability and health. Through its Health Care Services segment the company provides home health, hospice and outpatient therapy services, and education and wellness programs, to residents of its communities and to seniors living outside of its communities.

Costamare Inc.

Costamare is an international owner of containerships. Co. is engaged in chartering vessels to many of the world's liner companies. As of Feb 23 2018, Co. has a fleet of 71 containerships with a total capacity in excess of 466,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs). Co.'s strategy is to time charter its containerships to a geographically diverse, financially strong and loyal group of liner companies. Co.'s containerships operate primarily under multi-year charters and therefore are not subject to the effect of seasonal variations in demand. Some of Co.'s customers are A.P. Moller-Maersk, MSC, Evergreen, Hapag Lloyd and COSCO.

Eagle Bulk Shipping

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Ensign Group Inc.

Ensign Group is a holding company. Through its operating subsidiaries, the company provides skilled nursing, senior living and rehabilitative services, as well as other ancillary businesses. In transitional and skilled services, the company provides short and long-term nursing care services for patients with chronic conditions, prolonged illness, and the elderly. The company's senior living companies provide residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support, but not the level of nursing care provided in a skilled nursing operation. The company's other business lines includes of mobile ancillary services.

FreightCar America Inc.

FreightCar America manufactures railcars and railcar components. The company designs and manufactures a variety of railcar types for transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America, including open top hoppers, covered hoppers, and gondolas along with intermodal and non-intermodal flat cars. The company's Manufacturing segment includes new railcar manufacturing, used railcar sales, railcar leasing and railcar rebuilds. The company's products and services include: VersaFlood Hopper Cars, Covered Hopper Cars, Dynastack Series, Steel Products Cars, Boxcars, Aluminum Coal Cars, Stainless Steel and Hybrid Stainless Steel/Aluminum Coal Cars, and Other Railcar Types.

GATX Corporation

GATX is a global railcar lessor. The Rail North America segment provides railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars, pays ad valorem taxes and property insurance, and provides other ancillary services. The Rail International segment leases railcars pursuant to full-service leases under which it maintains the railcars and provides services according to customer requirements. The Portfolio Management segment leases aircraft spare engines, as well as five liquefied gas-carrying vessels. The American Steamship Company segment provides waterborne transportation of dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal, limestone aggregates, and metallurgical limestone.

Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd.

Global Ship Lease Inc. Class A

Global Ship Lease is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the business of owning and chartering out containerships under fixed rate charters to container liner companies.

Greenbrier Companies Inc.

Greenbrier Companies is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company designs, manufactures and markets railroad freight car equipment in North America, Europe, the Gulf Cooperation Council and South America. The company has three segments: Manufacturing, which produces conventional railcars, tank cars, intermodal railcars, automotive and is involved in marine vessel fabrication; Wheels, Repair and Parts, which includes reconditioning of wheels and axles in addition to new axle machining and finishing and downsizing; and Leasing and Services, which includes railcar maintenance management, railcar accounting services, total fleet management, administration and railcar remarketing.

JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.

KBR Inc.

KBR provides services and technologies across the asset and program life-cycle within the government services and hydrocarbons industries. The company has three segments: Government Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions to defense, space, aviation and other programs and missions for military and other government agencies; Technology Solutions, which combines technologies, equipment and catalyst supply, digital solutions and associated knowledge-based services into a global business for refining, petrochemicals, inorganic and specialty chemicals; and Energy Solutions, which provides life-cycle support solutions across the upstream, midstream and downstream hydrocarbons markets.

Kirby Corporation

Kirby operates tank barge. The company's marine transportation segment provides marine transportation services, operating tank barges and towing vessels transporting bulk liquid products. The company transports petrochemicals, black oil, refined petroleum products and agricultural chemicals by tank barge. The company's distribution and services segment, sells genuine replacement parts, provides service mechanics to overhaul and repair engines, transmissions, reduction gears and related oilfield services equipment, rebuilds component parts or diesel engines, transmissions and reduction gears, and related equipment used in oilfield services, marine, power generation, on-highway and other industrial applications.

L.B. Foster Co.

L. B. Foster is a manufacturer and distributor of products and service provider for transportation and energy infrastructure. The company's business segments are: Rail Products and Services, which is comprised of several manufacturing, distribution, and service businesses that provide a variety of products and services for freight and passenger railroads and industrial companies throughout the world; Construction Products, which is composed of Piling and Fabricated Bridge Products and Precast Concrete Products business units; and Tubular and Energy Services, which is composed of Protective Coatings and Measurement Systems and Test, Inspection, and Threading Services business units.

MasTec Inc.

MasTec is an infrastructure construction company operating mainly throughout North America across a range of industries. The company's segments include: Communications, which performs engineering, construction, maintenance and customer fulfillment activities related to communications infrastructure; Oil and Gas, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance services on oil and natural gas pipelines and processing facilities; Electrical Transmission, which performs engineering, construction and maintenance of electrical transmission lines and substations; and Power Generation and Industrial, which performs installation and construction of power facilities.

Matson Inc.

Matson is a holding company engaged in the provision of ocean transportation and logistics services. The company's Ocean transportation segment business is conducted through Matson Navigation Company, Inc., which provides a lifeline of ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska and Guam, and to other island economies in Micronesia and operates an expedited service from China to Long Beach, CA, and provides services to Okinawa, Japan and various islands in the South Pacific. The company's Logistics business is conducted through Matson Logistics, Inc., an asset-light business that provides a variety of logistics services to its customers.

Navios Maritime Partners

Navios Maritime Partners L.P. is an international owner and operator of dry cargo and container vessels. The Company is engaged in the seaborne transportation services of a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer, and also containers, chartering its vessels under medium to long-term charters. It focuses on providing seaborne shipping services under long-term time charters. As of December 31, 2016, it controlled 12 Panamax vessels, nine Capesize vessels, three Ultra-Handymax vessels and seven container vessels. Panamax vessels are vessels capable of carrying a range of dry cargo commodities, including iron ore, coal, grain and fertilizer and being accommodated in various discharge ports. Capesize vessels are dedicated to the carriage of iron ore and coal. Ultra-Handymax vessels are similar to Panamax vessels although with less carrying capacity, and have self-loading and discharging gear on board to accommodate undeveloped ports.

NHC Communications, Inc.

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.

Star Bulk Carriers is an international company providing worldwide transportation solutions in the drybulk sector through its vessels-owning subsidiaries for a range of customers of major and minor bulk cargoes including iron ore, coal, grain, cement, fertilizer, along worldwide shipping routes. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. owned and operated a fleet of 73 vessels consisting primarily of Newcastlemax, Capesize as well as Kamsarmax, Ultramax and Supramax vessels with a carrying capacity between 52,055 dwt and 209,537 dwt. Co.'s vessels transport a range of major and minor bulk commodities, including ores, coal, grains and fertilizers, along worldwide shipping routes.

Trinity Industries Inc.

Trinity Industries is a provider of railcar products and services in North America. The company has the following reportable segments: Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, which provides operating leases for freight and tank railcars, as well as originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investors and provides fleet maintenance and management services to industrial shippers; Rail Products Group, which manufactures freight and tank railcars in North America used for transporting a variety of liquids, gases, and dry cargo, and also provides a range of maintenance services and solutions; and All Other, which includes the company's highway products business.

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation

Wabtec primarily serves the global freight rail and passenger transit industries. The company provides its products and services through two segments: Freight, which primarily manufactures and provides aftermarket parts and services for new locomotives; provides components for new and existing locomotives and freight cars; builds new commuter locomotives; and supplies rail control and infrastructure products, among others: and Transit, which primarily manufactures and services components for new and existing passenger transit vehicles, mainly regional trains, high speed trains, subway cars, light-rail vehicles and buses; and supplies rail control and infrastructure products, among others.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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