Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.83 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communications

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all holding above their respective short-term support levels and market dynamics remain positive. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe a “buy the dip” mentality is warranted.

· Key Support Levels To Watch. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 (IWM) are each testing short-term support levels of 3425, 11,606, and $159, respectively. As long as these support levels hold we believe a bullish outlook remains appropriate. Below 3425 on the S&P 500, additional support levels to watch include 3325 and 3200; a break below 3325 would lead us to shift to a more neutral stance, however we would likely stay constructive as long as 3200 holds. For the Nasdaq 100, additional support levels to watch below 11,606 include 11,225 and 10,700... see charts below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Utilities (XLU) to market weight with both price and RS bullishly inflecting -- add exposure. Additionally, we are downgrading Communications (XLC) to market weight due to its RS uptrend violation... see pages 2-3.

· Market Dynamics Remain Positive. High yield spreads are hitting multi-month lows; this is a risk-on signal that tells us recession concerns are slim looking out 3 to 6+ months. The 10-year Treasury yield is making another higher low and appears poised for another leg up, and higher yields is a sign of an improving economy. The US dollar index (DXY) remains below 94 which we view as a risk-on signal considering the current strong negative correlation between the DXY and S&P 500 Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity) and WTI crude oil are on the cusp of breakouts; bullish inflections would be a positive sign for the global economy as it would signal improving demand. ...
Underlyings
AECOM

AECOM designs, builds, finances and operates infrastructure assets for governments, businesses and organizations. The company provides: planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design services to commercial and government clients in transportation, facilities, environmental, energy, water and government markets; construction services, including building construction and energy, infrastructure and industrial construction; as well as program and facilities management and maintenance, training, logistics, consulting, technical assistance, and systems integration and information technology services, for agencies of the United States government and for other national governments.

AerCap Holdings NV

Aercap Holdings is an integrated global aviation company engaged in aircraft leasing. Co. acquires aviation assets at attractive prices, lease the assets to suitable lessees, and manage the funding and other lease related costs efficiently. Co. also provides aircraft management services. Co. operates its business on a global basis, providing aircraft to customers in every major geographical region. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. owned 980 aircraft and managed 113 aircraft.

AMERCO

AMERCO is a holding company. The company is engaged as a moving and storage operator through its subsidiary U-Haul International, Inc. (U-Haul). The company's segments include: Moving and Storage, which consists of the rental of trucks, trailers, portable moving and storage units, specialty rental items and self-storage spaces to the household mover as well as sales of moving supplies, towing accessories and propane; Property and Casualty Insurance, which provides loss adjusting and claims handling for U-Haul; and Life Insurance, which provides life and health insurance products to the senior market through the direct writing and reinsuring of life insurance, Medicare supplement and annuity policies.

American Electric Power Company Inc.

American Electric Power Company is a public utility holding company. The public utility subsidiaries of the company provide electric service, consisting of generation, transmission and distribution, on an integrated basis to their retail customers. The service areas of the company's public utility subsidiaries cover portions of the states of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Transmission networks are interconnected with distribution facilities in the territories served. The company's service company subsidiary provides accounting, administrative, information systems, engineering, financial, legal, maintenance and other services.

Avis Budget Group Inc.

Avis Budget Group is a provider of mobility solutions through its three brands, Avis, Budget and Zipcar, together with several other brands. The company has two segments: Americas, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and operates its car sharing business in certain of these markets; and International, which provides and licenses the company's brands to third parties for vehicle rentals and ancillary products and services in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Australasia, and operates the company's car sharing business in certain of these markets.

CAI International Inc.

CAI International is a transportation finance and logistics company. The company has three reportable segments: container leasing, rail leasing and logistics. The container leasing segment is engaged in ownership and leasing of containers under three main types of leases: long-term leases, short-term leases, and finance leases. The rail leasing segment is engaged in the ownership and leasing of railcars under three types of leases: full service leases, net operating leases and per diem leases. The logistics segment is engaged in the provision of logistics services including intermodal, truck brokerage, port drayage, warehousing, international ocean freight and freight forwarding, among others.

CenterPoint Energy Inc.

CenterPoint Energy owns interests in Enable Midstream Partners, LP. The company's subsidiaries own and operate electric transmission and distribution, electric generation and natural gas distribution facilities, supply natural gas to commercial and industrial customers and electric and natural gas utilities and provide underground pipeline construction and repair services, energy performance contracting and sustainable infrastructure services. The company's segments include: Houston Electric T&D, which consists of electric transmission and distribution services in the Texas Gulf Coast area; and Energy Services, which consists of non-rate regulated natural gas sales and services operations.

Collectors Universe Inc.

Collectors Universe provides third-party authentication, grading and related services for collectibles consisting of coins, trading cards, sports memorabilia and autographs. The company authenticates and grades the quality of such collectibles for dealers, collectors and retail buyers and sellers of these collectibles. The company also publishes magazines that provide market prices and information for certain collectibles and assets that are accessible on its websites. The company sells advertising on those websites, and sells advertising in the magazines that it publishes and owns the Certified Coin Exchange subscription business, which operates an online market for graded collectible coins for dealers.

Copart Inc.

Copart is a provider of online auctions and vehicle remarketing services. The company provides vehicle sellers with a range of services to process and sell vehicles primarily over the Internet through its Virtual Bidding Third Generation Internet auction-style sales technology. Vehicle sellers consist primarily of insurance companies, but also include banks, finance companies, charities, fleet operators, dealers and vehicles sourced directly from individual owners. The company sells the vehicles principally to licensed vehicle dismantlers, rebuilders, repair licensees, used vehicle dealers and exporters and, at certain locations, to the general public.

Dycom Industries Inc.

Dycom Industries is a provider of specialty contracting services. The company supplies telecommunications providers with a portfolio of specialty services, including program management; planning; engineering and design; aerial, underground, and wireless construction; maintenance; and fulfillment services for telecommunications providers. Additionally, the company provides underground facility locating services for various utilities, including telecommunications providers, and other construction and maintenance services for electric and gas utilities. The company supplies the labor, tools, and equipment necessary to provide these services to its customers.

EMCOR GROUP

EMCOR Group is an electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services firm. In addition, the company provides building services and industrial services. The company's services are provided to its customers through its operating subsidiaries and joint venture entities. The company engages in providing construction services relating to electrical and mechanical systems in various types of facilities and in providing various services relating to the operation, maintenance and management of facilities. The company also provides its construction services indirectly by acting as a subcontractor to general contractors, systems suppliers, construction managers, developers, property managers and other subcontractors.

Entergy Corporation

Entergy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an integrated energy company engaged mainly in electric power production and retail distribution operations. The company owns and operates power plants. The company has two segments: Utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and Entergy Wholesale Commodities, which includes the ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, located in the northern United States, the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers, and also provides services to other nuclear power plant owners.

Fluor Corporation

Fluor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, operations, maintenance and asset integrity, as well as project management services. The company serves a set of industries including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and manufacturing. The company is also a service provider to the U.S. federal government and governments abroad; and it performs operations, maintenance and asset integrity activities for industrial clients. The company has four segments: Energy & Chemicals; Mining, Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Diversified Services; and Government.

Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.

Jacobs Engineering Group provides services including consulting, technical, scientific and project delivery for the government and private sector. The company's lines of business are: Critical Mission Solutions, which provides cybersecurity, data analytics, software application development, enterprise and mission information technology, systems integration and other technical consulting solutions to government agencies as well as aerospace, automotive and telecom customers; and People and Places Solutions, which provides end-to-end solutions for its clients' projects, whether connected mobility, water, smart cities, manufacturing or the environment.

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation

Pinnacle West Capital is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, Arizona Public Service Company, the company provides either retail or wholesale electric service to most of the State of Arizona, with the exceptions of about one-half of the Phoenix metropolitan area, the Tucson metropolitan area and Mohave County in northwestern Arizona. The company's business segment is its regulated electricity segment, which consists of regulated retail and wholesale electricity businesses (primarily electric service to Native Load customers) and related activities, and includes electricity generation, transmission and distribution.

PNM Resources Inc.

PNM Resources is a holding company. Through its regulated utilities, the company provides electricity and electric services in New Mexico and Texas. The company's electric utilities are Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Texas-New Mexico Power Company (TNMP). PNM is an electric utility that provides electric generation, transmission, and distribution service to its rate-regulated customers in area of north central New Mexico, including the cities of Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, and Santa Fe, and certain areas of southern New Mexico. TNMP is a regulated utility that provides transmission and distribution services in Texas under the provisions of TECA and the Texas Public Utility Regulatory Act.

Quanta Services Inc.

Quanta Services is a provider of contracting services, delivering infrastructure solutions for the electric power, energy and communications industries in the United States, Canada, Australia, Latin America and select other international markets. The company has two segments: Electric Power Infrastructure Services, which provides network solutions to customers in the electric power industry and services that support the development of renewable energy generation; and Pipeline and Industrial Infrastructure Services, which provides infrastructure solutions to customers involved in the development, transportation, distribution, storage and processing of natural gas, oil and other products.

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers sells industrial equipment and other assets for the construction, agricultural, transportation, energy, mining, forestry, material handling, marine and real estate industries at its unreserved auctions and online marketplaces. The auction items are sold during live on site auctions without a minimum or reserve price. Through EquipmentOne (Co.'s online marketplace), equipment sellers are able to list their equipment on the online marketplace, receive and accept offers, and complete and settle their sale. Co.'s other services include Private Treaty, in which Co. acts as a private sales agent and conduct negotiated sales of equipment items between buyers and sellers.

Ryder System Inc.

Ryder System is engaged in transportation and supply chain management solutions. The company's segments include: Fleet Management Solutions, which provides full service leasing and leasing with maintenance options, commercial rental, contract or transactional maintenance services, and fleet support services such as vehicle administration and fuel service; Supply Chain Solutions, which provides logistics management services, including distribution management, transportation management and other services; and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, which combines equipment, maintenance, drivers, administrative services and additional services to provide a dedicated transportation solution.

Tawasol Group Holding

Willis Lease Finance Corp.

Willis Lease Finance with its subsidiaries is a provider of aviation services whose primary focus is providing operating leases of commercial aircraft, aircraft engines and other aircraft-related equipment to air carriers, manufacturers and overhaul/repair facilities worldwide. The company has two segments; Leasing and Related Operations, which leases aircraft engines and aircraft and provides related services to a group of commercial aircraft operators and maintenance, repair and overhaul organizations worldwide; and Spare Parts Sales, which engages in the sale of aircraft engine parts and materials through the acquisition or consignment of engines from third parties or from the leasing portfolio.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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