Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.59 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value

Note: This is an abbreviated report (no detailed Sector comments or Russell grids). We will return to our normal report structure next week.

While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500. Since late-February, we have discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500, and that as long as the S&P 500 is above 4983 that bulls remain in control; the selling last week has so far been limited to filling this gap. 4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows; in order to get a larger pullback to 4800, the 4920-4950 level would need to break. And, to reiterate, as long as the S&P 500 remains above 4800, we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

Sector Weighting Changes; Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value. We are downgrading Technology to market weight as semiconductors (SMH) finally pull back/consolidate -- reduce exposure. Additionally, we are upgrading Manufacturing to overweight, and also upgrading Utilities to market weight -- add exposure. This is all part of a larger shift from growth to value across the market cap spectrum... see chart below and pages 2-4.
Russell 2000, Equal-Weighted S&P 500. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has pulled back to test critical support at $187.50-$190 and 5+ month RS support. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) has pulled back to test major support at $158. As long as the IWM and RSP are above these levels, we view the pullback as a buying opportunity... see page 5.
Short-Term Oversold. The percentage of stocks above their 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 fell to the 5-7% and 10% level, respectively. These levels have coincided with short-term bounces over the past two years, though the rallies can be short-lived and can certainly lead to lower lows... see page 6.
Big Picture Trends. Certain market dynamics continue to lean bullish, including no significant widening from high yield spreads, RS for defensive Sectors still below their October 2023 lows for Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV), and Utilities (XLU), and several key commodities below critical resistances (WTI crude oil, gasoline, Bloomberg Commodity index). Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY) are testing important resistances from October/November 2023. We also continue to see far more constructive long-term price patterns (ACWI, ACWX, EFA, EEM, FM, KBE, IAI, ITB, ARKF, ARKW, XLE, IGV) than bearish ones (XBI)...
Underlyings
American Electric Power Company Inc.

American Electric Power Company is a public utility holding company. The public utility subsidiaries of the company provide electric service, consisting of generation, transmission and distribution, on an integrated basis to their retail customers. The service areas of the company's public utility subsidiaries cover portions of the states of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia. Transmission networks are interconnected with distribution facilities in the territories served. The company's service company subsidiary provides accounting, administrative, information systems, engineering, financial, legal, maintenance and other services.

Badger Meter Inc.

Badger Meter is an innovator, manufacturer and marketer of products incorporating flow measurement, control and communication solutions serving markets worldwide. The company's product lines fall into following categories: sales of water meters, radios and related technologies to municipal water utilities and sales of meters, valves and other products for industrial applications in water, wastewater, and other industries. The company provides flow measurement, control and communication portfolios in the market. This portfolio carries brand names including Recordall?, Hedland?, Dynasonics?, Blancett?, and Research Control?, and includes various primary flow meter technologies.

Charles Schwab Corporation

Charles Schwab is a savings and loan holding company. The company is engaged, through its subsidiaries, in wealth management, securities brokerage, banking, asset management, custody, and financial advisory services. The company provides financial services to individuals and institutional clients in two segments: Investor Services, which provides retail brokerage and banking services to individual investors and retirement plan services, as well as other corporate brokerage services, to businesses and their employees; and Advisor Services, which provides custodial, trading, banking and support services, as well as retirement business services to independent registered investment advisors and recordkeepers.

Citigroup Inc.

Citigroup is a financial services holding company whose businesses provide consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, trade and securities services and wealth management. The company operates via two primary business segments: Global Consumer Banking, which provides banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards and Citi retail services; and Institutional Clients Group, which includes banking and markets and securities services.

Duke Energy Corporation

Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.

Eaton Corp. Plc

Entergy Corporation

Entergy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an integrated energy company engaged mainly in electric power production and retail distribution operations. The company owns and operates power plants. The company has two segments: Utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and Entergy Wholesale Commodities, which includes the ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, located in the northern United States, the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers, and also provides services to other nuclear power plant owners.

Flowserve Corporation

Flowserve is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The company develops and manufactures flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customers' processes. The company's segments are: Flowserve Pump Division, which are for custom, pumps, pre-configured industrial pumps, pump systems, mechanical seals, auxiliary systems and replacement parts and related services; and Flow Control Division, which are for engineered and industrial valves, control valves, actuators and controls and related services.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Goldman Sachs Group is a bank holding company and financial holding company. The company is a global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a range of financial services to corporations, financial institutions, governments and individuals. The company operates in four business segments: Investment Banking, which serves public and private sector clients and provides financial advisory services; Global Markets, which serves its clients who come to the company to buy and sell financial products, raise funding and manage risk; Asset Management, which provides investment services; and Consumer & Wealth Management, which provides a range of wealth advisory and banking services.

Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Ingersoll Rand is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of flow control and compression equipment and associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services. The company's segments are: Industrials, which designs, manufactures, markets and services air compression, vacuum and blower products; Energy, which designs, manufactures, markets and services positive displacement pumps, liquid ring vacuum pumps, compressors and integrated systems, engineered fluid loading and transfer equipment and associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services; and Medical, which designs, manufactures and market gas, liquid and precision syringe pumps and compressors.

ITT Inc.

ITT is a manufacturer of engineered components and customized technology solutions for the transportation, industrial, and oil and gas markets. The company's segments are: Motion Technologies, which manufactures brake pads, shims, shock absorbers, energy absorption components, and sealing technologies; Industrial Process, which provides a portfolio of industrial pumps, valves, and plant optimization systems and services; and Connect and Control Technologies, which designs and manufactures a range of connectors and products for applications supporting various markets including aerospace and defense, industrial, transportation, medical, and oil and gas.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.

JPMorgan Chase is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company's segments include: Consumer and Community Banking, which provides services through bank branches, ATMs, digital (including mobile and online) and telephone banking; Corporate and Investment Bank, which consists of Banking and Markets and Securities Services, provides a suite of investment banking, market-making, prime brokerage, and treasury and securities products and services; Commercial Banking, which provides financial solutions, including lending, treasury services, investment banking and asset management products; and Asset and Wealth Management, which is engaged in investment and wealth management.

NextEra Energy Inc.

NextEra Energy is a holding company, engaged in electric power and energy infrastructure. The company has two principal businesses, Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) and NextEra Energy Resources, LLC (NEER). FPL is a rate-regulated electric utility engaged primarily in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electric energy in Florida. FPL provides service to its electric customers through a transmission and distribution system that links its generation facilities to its customers. NEER, through its subsidiaries, owns, develops, constructs, manages and operates electric generation facilities in wholesale energy markets primarily in the United States and Canada.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Parker Hannifin is a manufacturer of motion and control technologies and systems, providing engineered solutions for a variety of mobile, industrial and aerospace markets. The company has two reporting segments: Diversified Industrial and Aerospace Systems. The company's Diversified Industrial segment products consist of a range of motion-control and fluid systems and components, which are categorized into the following groups: Engineered Materials, Filtration, Fluid Connectors, Instrumentation, and Motion Systems. The company's Aerospace Systems Segment products are used in commercial and military airframe and engine programs and include control actuation systems and components and pneumatic control components.

Raymond James Financial Inc.

Raymond James Financial is a bank holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in financial services activities. The company's segments include: Private Client Group, which provides financial planning and securities transaction services through a branch office network; Capital Markets, which conducts institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, investment banking and the syndication and management of investments that qualify for tax credits; Asset Management, which provides portfolio management and related administrative services for retail and institutional clients; and Raymond James Bank, N.A., which provides loans such as corporate loans.

Southern Company

Southern is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Alabama Power Company, Georgia Power Company, and Mississippi Power Company, the company is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution, and purchase of electricity and the sale of electric service in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. The company's Southern Power Company subsidiary develops, constructs, acquires, owns, and manages power generation assets, including renewable energy projects, and sells electricity at market-based rates in the wholesale market. The company's Southern Company Gas subsidiary is an energy services holding company whose primary business is the distribution of natural gas in Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee.

Trane Technologies plc

Ingersoll-Rand provides products, services and solutions to enhance air in homes and buildings, transport and protect food. Co.'s segments are: Climate. which includes Trane® and American Standard® Heating & Air Conditioning, providing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, and commercial and residential building services, parts, support and controls, energy services and building automation as well as transport temperature control solutions; and Industrial, which includes compressed air and gas systems and services, power tools, material handling systems, ARO® fluid management equipment, as well as Club Car ® golf, utility and rough terrain vehicles.

Xylem Inc.

Xylem is water technology company. The company designs, manufactures and services engineered solutions ranging across a variety of applications primarily in the water sector, but also in electric and gas. The company's business segments are: water infrastructure, which serves the water infrastructure sector with pump systems, filtration, ultraviolet and ozone systems and pumping solutions; Applied Water, which serves the usage applications sector with water pressure boosting systems; and Measurement and Control Solutions, which serves the utility infrastructure solutions and services sector by delivering communications, smart metering, measurement and control technologies and infrastructure technologies.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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