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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
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Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins

The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives, and this is the ideal time to do so. Tops are processes; 2000 and 2007 tops consolidated for 5 to 6 months before ultimately breaking down. We initially discussed expectations for a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) in late-July (7/30/24 Compass), but as discussed last week (9/10/24 Compass) it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from the 7/17/24 starting point, until the market decides which way this consolidation resolves. For now, we remain neutral on the SPX, preferring to sell near 5670-5783 resistance and buy near 5100-5200 support until there is a break in either direction.

FOMC Rate Cut Cycle Begins Today. Since our 7/30/24 Compass we have made it clear that we believe the Fed is behind the curve on rate cuts. Therefore, we expect a 50bps cut (63% odds) to be well-received, while a 25bps cut (37% odds) could be seen as the Fed "not doing enough." What it will ultimately come down to in terms of SPX continuing higher or suffering a larger correction, is whether or not this rate cutting cycle is accompanied by a recession or not. Rate of change recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator recently moved even deeper into "recession zone," but most economic data remains non-recessionary on an absolute basis. We continue to be open-minded.
Big Picture Trends. The Dow, RSP, XLB, and XLI are back to test YTD highs as they likely await today's FOMC announcement for direction; last week we discussed how they looked like failed breakouts, but they are really just consolidating. Defensive Sectors (Utilities, Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate) continue to be leadership, a clear risk-off signal; we have not seen defensive Sectors outperform like this at any other time in over two years. Additional concerns: WTI crude oil displays a major breakdown below $71 (a recessionary signal) and most indexes are below resistance with many forming potential head-and-shoulders tops (e.g., SPX, QQQ, SMH, XLK, IGV, IPO, XLC, ARKW, VXF, IJH, IJR, IWM, XRT, XLY, XBI, PSCH, XLB, KBE, and EEM)... see chart below and pages 2-5.
Underlyings
Aflac Incorporated

Aflac, through its subsidiaries, provides financial protection to people worldwide. The company's principal business is supplemental health and life insurance products. The company's insurance business consists of two reporting segments: Aflac Japan, which are designed to help consumers pay for medical and nonmedical costs that are not reimbursed under Japan's national health insurance system; and Aflac U.S., which the insurance products to provide supplemental coverage for people who already have primary medical or primary insurance coverage. The Aflac Japan's insurance products includes of cancer insurance, and medical insurance; and Aflac U.S. products includes of accident insurance, among others.

Canlan Ice Sports

Canlan Ice Sports is engaged in the development, lease, acquisition and operation of multi-purpose recreation and entertainment facilities. Co. operates in five core business segments: Ice Sales consists of contract rental of ice-time, team registration for leagues, tournament, ice programmes and youth camps; Restaurant and Lounge Operations operates restaurants, sports bars, and concession outlets; Sports Store Operations operates stores that sell hockey and skating equipment and apparel; Advertising and Other Operations engaged in the advertising, vending and space rental; and Management and Consulting Services manages recreation facilities owned by third parties.

Cboe Global Markets Inc

Cboe Global Markets is an exchange holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides trading and investment solutions to investors. The company provides trading across a range of products in various asset classes and geographies, such as options, futures, United States and European equities, exchange-traded products, global foreign exchange and multi-asset volatility products based on the Cboe Volatility Index exchange-traded options and futures products. In addition to its exchanges providing a marketplace and listing venue for the trading of securities and derivatives the company calculates proprietary indices that are used as the basis for proprietary products or licensed for use by third parties.

CME Group Inc. Class A

CME Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company exchanges provides a range of global benchmark products across asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange (FX), agricultural, energy and metal commodities. The company provides futures and options on futures trading across asset classes through its subsidiary, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) Globex platform, cash and repo fixed income trading via BrokerTec, and cash and OTC FX trading via EBS. In addition, the company operates central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing, a division of CME. The company also provides optimization, reconciliation and processing services through TriOptima, Traiana and Reset.

Community Health Systems Inc.

Community Health Systems is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates general acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities. The company provides healthcare services through the hospitals that it owns and operates and affiliated businesses in non-urban and selected urban markets. Services provided through the company's hospitals and affiliated businesses include general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery, critical care, internal medicine, obstetrics, diagnostic, psychiatric and rehabilitation services. The company also provides additional outpatient services at urgent care centers, occupational medicine clinics, imaging centers, cancer centers and ambulatory surgery centers.

Equitable Holdings Inc.

Equitable Holdings is a holding company. The company provides financial services. The company's Individual Retirement segment provides a range of variable annuity products which are sold to affluent and individuals saving for retirement or seeking retirement income. The company's Group Retirement segment provides tax-deferred investment and retirement plans sponsored by educational entities, municipalities and not-for-profit entities as well as small and medium-sized businesses. The company's Investment Management and Research segment provides investment management, research and related solutions. The company's Protection Solutions segment includes the company's life insurance and group employee benefits businesses.

HCA Healthcare Inc

HCA Healthcare is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, the company owns and operates hospitals and related health care entities. Most of the company's general, acute care hospitals provide medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic services and emergency services. The general, acute care hospitals also provide outpatient services such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology and physical therapy. The company's psychiatric hospitals provide therapeutic programs including child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling.

Interactive Brokers Group Inc. Class A

Interactive Brokers Group is a holding company. The company together with its subsidiary, IBG LLC, is an automated global electronic broker engaged in executing and clearing trades in securities, futures, foreign exchange instruments, bonds and mutual funds on various electronic exchanges and market centers and providing custody, prime brokerage, securities and margin lending services to customers. The company's principal business segment is electronic brokerage. The company conducts its electronic brokerage business through certain Interactive Brokers subsidiaries. As an electronic broker, the company executes, clears and settles trades globally for both institutional and individual customers.

Manulife Financial Corporation

Manulife Financial is a provider of financial protection and wealth management products and services, including individual life insurance, group life and health insurance, long-term care insurance, pension products, annuities and mutual funds to individual and group customers in Asia, Canada and the United States. Co. also provides investment management services with respect to Co.'s general fund assets, segregated fund assets, mutual funds, and to institutional customers. Co. also offers reinsurance services, specializing in property and aviation catastrophe risk reinsurance products.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc.

MarketAxess Holdings operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments using its patented technology. Through its Open Trading? protocols, the company executes trades in certain bond between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients. The company also provides trading-related products and services, including: Composite+ pricing and other market data products to assist clients with trading decisions; auto-execution and other execution services for clients requiring specialized workflow solutions; connectivity solutions that facilitate straight-through processing; and technology services.

MetLife Inc.

MetLife, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides insurance, annuities, employee benefits and asset management. The company's segments include: United States; Asia; Latin America; Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and MetLife Holdings. In the United States, the company provides a variety of insurance and financial services products, including life, dental, disability, property and casualty, guaranteed interest, stable value and annuities to both individuals and groups. Outside the United States, the company provides life, medical, dental, credit and other accident and health insurance, as well as annuities, endowment and retirement and savings products to both individuals and groups.

Nasdaq Inc.

Nasdaq is a holding company. Nasdaq is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company manages, operates and provides its products and services in business segments: Market Services, which includes equity derivative trading and clearing, cash equity trading, fixed income and commodities trading and clearing and trade management services businesses; Corporate Services, which includes listing services and corporate solutions businesses; Information Services, which includes market data, index, and investment data and analytics; and Market Technology, which provides and delivers solutions across the trade lifecycle via the Nasdaq Financial Framework.

Principal Financial Group Inc.

Principal Financial Group is an insurance holding company, engaged in investment management. The company provides businesses, individuals and institutional clients a range of financial products and services, including retirement, asset management and insurance through its financial services companies. The company provides long-term investment strategies to institutional, retirement, high net worth and retail clients by providing a range of capabilities including equity, fixed income, real estate and other alternative investments, as well as fund offerings. The company's segments include: retirement and income solutions; principal global investors; principal international; and United States insurance solutions.

Prudential Financial Inc.

Prudential Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries and affiliates, the company provides a range of financial products and services, including life insurance, annuities, retirement-related products and services, mutual funds and investment management. The company provides these products and services to individual and institutional customers. The company's principal operations are comprised of PGIM (its global investment management business), its United States Businesses (consisting of its United States Workplace Solutions, United States Individual Solutions, and Assurance IQ divisions), its International Businesses, the Closed Block division and its Corporate and Other operations.

Select Medical Holdings Corporation

Select Medical Holdings is managed through four business segments: critical illness recovery hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve the needs of patients recovering from critical illnesses; rehabilitation hospital, which consists of hospitals designed to serve patients that require intensive physical rehabilitation care; outpatient rehabilitation, which consists of clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation services; and the company's subsidiary, Concentra Inc. segment, which consists of occupational health centers that provide workers' compensation injury care, physical therapy, and consumer health services and onsite clinics.

StoneX Group Inc

Surgery Partners Inc.

Surgery Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a healthcare services company. The company operates in three reporting segments : Surgical Facility Services, which consists of the operation of ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) and surgical hospitals; Ancillary Services, which consists of a diagnostic laboratory and multi-specialty physician practices; and Optical Services, which consists of an optical laboratory and an optical products group purchasing organization. As of Dec 31 2017, the company owned or operated primarily in partnership with physicians, a portfolio of 124 surgical facilities comprised of 106 ASCs and 18 surgical hospitals across 32 states.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation

Tenet Healthcare is a healthcare services company. Through its subsidiaries, partnerships and joint ventures, including USPI Holding Company, Inc., the company operates hospitals, surgical hospitals and outpatient centers. In addition, the company's Conifer Holdings, Inc. (Conifer) subsidiary provides healthcare business process services in the areas of hospital and physician revenue cycle management and care solutions to healthcare systems, as well as individual hospitals, physician practices, self-insured organizations, health plans and other entities. The company has three reportable segments: Hospital Operations and other; Ambulatory Care; and Conifer.

Universal Health Services Inc. Class B

Universal Health Services owns and operates, through its subsidiaries, acute care hospitals and outpatient facilities and behavioral health care facilities. The company owns and/or operates inpatient facilities and outpatient and other facilities located in several states including, Washington, D.C., the United Kingdom, and Puerto Rico. Services provided by the company's hospitals include general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic care, coronary care, pediatric services, pharmacy services and/or behavioral health services. The company's reportable operating segments consist of acute care hospital services and behavioral health care services.

Virtu Financial Inc. Class A

Virtu Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a financial firm. The company has two operating segments: Market Making, which principally consists of market making in the cash, futures, and options markets across global equities, options, fixed income, currencies and commodities; and Execution Services, which provides agency execution services and trading venues that provide transparent trading in global equities, ETFs, fixed income, currencies, and commodities to institutions, banks and broker dealers, as well as provides soft dollar and commission recapture programs.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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