Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Materials To Overweight

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. Throw in new developments which include a decisive breakdown in the US dollar, price and RS breakouts for the Materials Sector, and a bullish RS reversal for small-caps, and we continue to believe the positives heavily outweigh the negatives.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are upgrading Materials from market weight to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections on the cap-weighted Materials Sector (XLB) and also due to a bullish RS inflection on the equal-weighted Vermilion Materials Sector... see pages 2-4.

· US Dollar (DXY) Breakdown, Emerging Markets Outperforming. Last week we got the decisive weekly close below 96 that we have been looking for on the DXY. We continue to believe a weaker dollar will be bullish for global risk sentiment and will add a further tailwind to both foreign/EM equities and commodity prices. Not only do emerging markets (EEM) remain in a short-term RS uptrend, but we also see strengthening commodity prices as likely continuing to support the Materials Sector... see page 5.

· High Yield Spreads, Treasury Yields, Copper vs. Gold. High yield spreads have narrowed to levels last seen in March. Considering this is arguably the best “fast-moving” recession indicator, this tells us the current probability of a recession looking out several months is low. On the other hand, Treasury yields are near their 2020 lows, a sign that the economy is not likely to be booming any time soon. Additionally, the copper vs. gold ratio appears to be breaking down, something we noted was possible last week. This suggests the 10-year Treasury yield may be poised to move even lower; ultimately we will continue to watch the key 0.57% support level on the 10-year.... see page 6.
Underlyings
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited

Agnico-Eagle Mines is a gold mining company with mining operations in Canada, Mexico and Finland. Co. earns a proportion of its revenues from the production and sale of gold in both dore bar and concentrate form. The remainder of revenue and cash flow is generated by the production and sale of byproduct metals. The revenue from byproduct metals is mainly generated by production at the LaRonde mine in Canada (silver, zinc, copper and lead) and the Pinos Altos mine in Mexico (silver).

Alamos Gold Inc.

Alamos Gold is engaged in the exploration, mine development, and the mining and extraction of precious metals, primarily gold. Co.'s s primary asset is the Mulatos Mine and holds the mineral rights to the Salamandra group of concessions in the State of Sonora, Mexico, which includes several known satellite gold occurrences.

Barrick Gold Corporation

Barrick Gold is engaged in the production and sale of gold, as well as related activities such as exploration and mine development. Co. also produces copper and hold interests in oil and gas properties located in Canada. Co.'s mining operations are concentrated in three regional business units: North America, South America and Australia Pacific. Co. also hold a 73.9% equity interest in African Barrick Gold plc that owns gold mines and exploration properties in Africa. Co.'s copper business unit contains producing copper mines located in Chile and Zambia; and a mine under construction located in Saudi Arabia.

Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

Coeur Mining Inc.

Coeur Mining is a gold and silver producer, as well as a zinc and lead producer, with mines located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and exploration projects in North America. The company operates the Palmarejo complex, and the Rochester, Kensington, Wharf and Silvertip mines. The company's dore, as well as the concentrate product produced by the Wharf mine, is refined into gold and silver bullion and then sells to multi-national banks, bullion trading houses, and refiners across the globe. The company's gold concentrate products from the Kensington mine and the zinc and lead concentrates from the Silvertip mine are sold under a variety of agreements with smelters and traders.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA Sponsored ADR

Eldorado Gold Corp.

Eldorado Gold is engaged in the exploration, development, mining and production of gold and other mining resources in Brazil, China, Turkey and Greece.

Energy Fuels

Energy Fuels is engaged in uranium mining, milling, development, and exploration with operating uranium mines, mines on standby, development projects and exploration properties located in the United States. Co.'s assets include its 100% ownership of the White Mesa Mill in Utah. Co. also produces vanadium as a co-product from some of its mines in Colorado and Utah. In addition, Co. recycles uranium-bearing waste materials, referred to as "alternate feed materials", for the recovery of uranium, alone or in combination with other metals, at its White Mesa Mill.

First Majestic Silver Corp.

First Majestic Silver is engaged in the business of silver production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver production in Mexico.

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

Fortuna Silver Mines is engaged in the mining, exploration, extraction and processing of silver, gold and zinc mine properties in southern Peru and Mexico.

Franco-Nevada Corporation

Franco-Nevada is a gold-focused royalty and stream company with additional interests in silver, platinum group metals, oil and gas and other resource assets located in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile and Africa. Co.'s portfolio includes 340 mineral and oil and gas assets covering properties at various stages from production to early stage exploration.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a mining company. The company operates assets with proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum, and the company is a publicly traded copper producer. The company's portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, copper and gold deposits; and mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. The company has organized its mining operations into four primary divisions: North America copper mines, South America mining, Indonesia mining and Molybdenum mines.

Hannibal Lease

HG Metal Manufacturing

HG Metal Manufacturing Limited is an investment holding company engaged in the business of trading of steel products. The Company has two operating segments: trading segment, which is engaged in the supplying of steel products and includes the holding of investments in subsidiaries in the business of steel distribution and provision of industrial steel services, and manufacturing segment, which produces construction steel products and provides related engineering services. Its business units include HG Distribution, which provides services, including wholesale activities, retailing, trading, sourcing and distribution of steel products; HG Construction Steel, which offers packages that cater to production for various forms of construction steel requirements, and HG Industrial Steel & Services, which offers a range of value-added services and solutions that cater to industries, such as marine, transportation and electronics.

IA Financial Corporation Inc.

Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services is a life and health insurance company. Together with its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged mainly in the development, marketing and distribution of individual and group insurance and annuity products, savings and retirement plans, mutual and segregated funds, publicly-traded securities, auto and home insurance, mortgage loans, and other financial products and services. Co. also operates mutual fund, securities and trust companies. The operations of the life and health insurance business extend throughout Canada and certain regions of the U.S., while the general insurance operations are concentrated mainly in the province of Quebec.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.

Kirkland Lake Gold is a Canadian gold mining and exploration company with three producing mines in Australia: the Fosterville Gold Mine and the Stawell Gold Mine in the State of Victoria and the Cosmo Gold Mine in the Northern Territory. Co. also has a portfolio of development opportunities on its significant land package, including the Big Hill Project at Stawell and various projects in the Northern Territories. In addition, Co. owns title to a mining lease located in north-central Newfoundland, Canada.

MAG Silver Corp.

MAG Silver is an exploration company conducting work on mineral properties it has staked or acquired by way of option agreement, principally in Mexico. Co. has not yet determined whether the properties on which it is conducting exploration contain any ore reserves that are economically recoverable. The recoverability of these amounts is dependent upon the existence of economically recoverable reserves, Co.'s ability to obtain the necessary financing to complete the development of the interests, and future profitable production, or alternatively, upon Co.’s ability to dispose of its interests on a profitable basis.

New Gold Inc.

New Gold is a gold producer engaged in gold mining and related activities including acquisition, exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation.

Newmont Corporation

Newmont is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. The company is also engaged in the production of copper, silver, lead and zinc. The company's operations are organized in five geographic regions; North America, South America, Australia, Africa and Nevada.

NovaGold Resources Inc.

NovaGold Resources is a mineral exploration company engaged in the exploration and development of gold and copper mineral properties. Co.'s primary focus is on the Donlin Gold project in Alaska. The Donlin Gold project is owned and operated by Donlin Gold LLC, a limited liability company that is owned equally by wholly owned subsidiaries of Co. and Barrick Gold Corporation. Co. also has an interest in the Galore Creek copper-gold-silver project in British Columbia, Canada. The Galore Creek project is held by a partnership owned equally by NOVAGOLD Canada Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Co., and by Teck Resources Limited.

Pan American Silver Corp.

Pan American Silver is engaged in the production and sale of silver, gold and other base metals including copper, lead and zinc as well as other related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. Co.'s primary product (silver) is produced in Peru, Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia. Additionally, Co. has project development activities in Peru, Mexico and Argentina, and exploration activities throughout South America and Mexico.

Seabridge Gold

Seabridge Gold is a development stage company engaged in the acquisition and exploration of gold properties located in North America.

Silvercorp Metals

Silvercorp Metals is engaged in the operation and development of and in the acquisition and exploration for high-grade silver-related mineral properties in the People's Republic of China. The Ying Mining District consists of four mines (SGX, HPG, TLP, and LM) and is Co.'s primary source of production.

Southern Copper Corporation

Southern Copper is a copper producer. The company's mining, smelting and refining facilities are located in Peru and Mexico and the company conducts exploration activities in those countries and in Argentina, Chile and Ecuador. The company's Peruvian copper operations involve mining, milling and flotation of copper ore to produce copper concentrates and molybdenum concentrates, the smelting of copper concentrates to produce blister and anode copper, and the refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes. The company's Mexican operations are conducted through its subsidiary, Minera Mexico, S.A. de C.V., which engages primarily in the mining and processing of copper, molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold and lead.

SSR Mining Inc

SSR Mining is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and operation of silver-dominant resource properties located in the Americas. Co.'s strategic focus is to optimize the production of silver from its Pirquitas mine in Argentina, and to advance other principal development and exploration projects including San Luis in Peru, Diablillos in Argentina, and Pitarrilla and San Agustin in Mexico. In addition to its principal projects, Co. holds a geologically-diverse portfolio of other predominantly silver projects in various stages of exploration.

Taranis Resources Inc.

Taranis Resources is an exploration stage company. Co. is in the process of acquiring and exploring its mineral properties and has not yet determined whether the properties contain ore reserves that are economically recoverable.

Taseko Mines Limited

Taseko Mines is engaged in the exploration, acquisition, development and sale of gold copper, molybdenum, niobium and other related mines within the province of British Columbia, Canada.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp

Wheaton Precious Metals is engaged in the silver mining business.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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