Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Bullish Inflections Around The World

Our previous Int'l Compass (11/5/20) outlined our constructive outlook, with the caveat that $77 support needed to hold on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and that we would shift to a bullish stance on a breakout above $84. Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Staying true to our word and considering market dynamics remain positive, our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips.

· Staggering Number Of Countries With Bullish Inflections. With broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) breaking above major resistance, it is no wonder that several countries are doing the same. Among others, countries with breakouts or bullish reversals include: Japan (Nikkei, TOPIX), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), the UK (FTSE 100), France (CAC 40), Italy (FTSE MIB), Austria (ATX), Norway (Oslo OBX), Spain (IBEX 35), Brazil (Bovespa), Greece (ATHEX), and Mexico (S&P/BMV IPC). New highs around the world is supportive of our bullish outlook... see chart below & pages 2-3.

· Rotations Are The Lifeblood Of Bull Markets. Sector rotations are the lifeblood of any healthy bull market, and right now we are seeing flows coming into left-for-dead value Sectors (namely Financials and Energy), and some consolidation in growth Sectors (esp. Technology). Shift to neutral between global ex-US value vs. growth.

· Actionable Theme: Value Sectors, Financials & Energy. Value has closed the gap on growth in the global ex-US equities arena, and we are now neutral on value vs. growth (we were previously overweight growth). Two important Sectors behind the resurgence for value are Financials and Energy, and we see price and RS as going through a bottoming process for these Sectors -- add exposure... see pages 6-16.

· Actionable Theme: Autos & Auto Parts. Global autos (CARZ-US) have been a major focus for us in recent months and we continue to recommend an overweight to the space. Two new attractive and actionable ideas include: Renault SA (RNO-FR) and Huizhou Desay SV Automotive (002920-CN) -- add exposure.
Underlyings
Allgemeine Gold- Und Silberscheideanstalt AG

Allgemeine Gold- und Silberscheideanstalt is engaged in the recovery of precious metals and the manufacture of precious metal products. Co. acts as a refinery, receiving refining materials, such as scraps, sweeps and solutions of precious metals from precious metal consuming industries. Co. refines these materials into other products, including sheets and strips, wires, tubes, solder core, casting grain, pre-alloys, gold and silver solders, special alloys, anodes and gold and silver salts for electroplating that are used in jewelry production and industrial applications.

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Co. Ltd.

Bangkok Commercial Asset Management PCL. Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based asset management company. The Company operates Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and Non-Preforming Assets (NPAs). The Company offers investment in real estate sector, as well as offers properties for auction and selling. The Company operates through two divisions: non-performing asset management and property foreclosed property management. The Company manages property foreclosed, which are real estate, such as vacant land (including agricultural real estate), hotels and commercial buildings.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co. Ltd. Class H

Dai-ichi Life Holdings Inc.

Dai-ichi Life Holdings is a holding company. Co., through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates in three business segments: domestic life insurance, overseas insurance, and other. Co.'s principal insurance products include "Junpu Life" for whole term insurance, "Shiawase Monogatari" for annuity insurance, "Medical Yell" for medical insurance, and "Yuyu Jinsei" for nursing care insurance. Co. also provides insurance for children, endowment insurance, group insurance policies for employees' accident compensation, as well as funds for housing loans and education loans. In addition, Co. is engaged in the investment and risk management as well as asset management services.

First Majestic Silver Corp.

First Majestic Silver is engaged in the business of silver production, development, exploration, and acquisition of mineral properties with a focus on silver production in Mexico.

Great-West Lifeco Inc.

Great-West Lifeco is a financial services holding company with interests in the life insurance, health insurance, retirement savings, investment management and reinsurance businesses. Co. has operations in Canada, the United States, Europe and Asia through The Great-West Life Assurance Company, London Life Insurance Company, The Canada Life Assurance Company, Great-West Life & Annuity Insurance Company and Putnam Investments, LLC. Co., through its operating subsidiaries, provides protection and savings products that are distributed through multiple sales channels. Products are marketed under the Great-West Life, London Life and Canada Life brands.

HANWHA LIFE INSURANCE Co. Ltd.

Hanwha Life Insurance Co. is engaged in providing life insurance services and other related insurance services. Co.'s insurance products consist of survival insurance, death insurance, life and death mixed insurance, and group insurance. Co. also provides loan services. Co. has 7 supporting groups, 67 branches and 707 business offices throughout the Republic of Korea (South Korea).

Hiscox Ltd

Hiscox is a holding company. Co. has four primary business segments: Hiscox Retail, which brings together the results of the U.K. and Europe, and the Hiscox International division being the US, Guernsey and Asia retail business divisions; Hiscox London Market, which comprises the internationally traded insurance business written by Co. and its subsidiaries' London-based underwriters via Syndicate 33; Hiscox Re, which is the reinsurance division of the Co. and its subsidiaries; as well as Corporate Centre, which comprises the investment return, finance costs and administrative costs associated with Co. and its subsidiaries' management activities.

KB Financial Group Inc.

KB Financial Group is a financial holding group based in South Korea. Co.'s subsidiaries collectively engage in a broad range of businesses, including commercial banking, credit cards, asset management, life insurance, capital markets activities and international banking. Co. provides credit and related financial services to individuals and small and medium sized enterprises and, to a lesser extent, to large corporate customers. Co. maintains a combined banking network of 1,193 branches. As of Dec 31 2012, Co. had total assets of SKW282 trillion and total deposits of SKW194.4 trillion.

Manulife Financial Corporation

Manulife Financial is a provider of financial protection and wealth management products and services, including individual life insurance, group life and health insurance, long-term care insurance, pension products, annuities and mutual funds to individual and group customers in Asia, Canada and the United States. Co. also provides investment management services with respect to Co.'s general fund assets, segregated fund assets, mutual funds, and to institutional customers. Co. also offers reinsurance services, specializing in property and aviation catastrophe risk reinsurance products.

Power Corporation of Canada

Power is a holding company with interests in companies that are active in the financial services, communications and other business sectors. Co. operates in four segments: Great-West Lifeco Inc., which offers a range of life insurance, retirement and investment products, as well as reinsurance and specialty general insurance products; IGM Financial Inc., which offers financial planning services and investment products to its client base; Parjointco N.V., which holds interests in companies based in Europe active in various sectors, including specialty minerals, water, waste services, energy, and wines and spirits; and Other, which is made up of corporate activities of Co.

Swiss Life Holding AG

Swiss Life is a holding company, engaged in providing life insurance and pension solutions and services. Co.'s segments include: Switzerland, France, Germany, International, Asset Managers, and Other. Co.'s Switzerland, France, Germany and International segments primarily consist of life insurance operations and distribution units. The life insurance operations provides a range of life, pension, health, annuity and investment-type policies to both groups and individuals, including disability coverage. Co. focuses primarily on life and pensions in Switzerland, France and Germany and on cross-border business from Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Singapore.

Swiss Re AG

Swiss Re is engaged in wholesale reinsurance, insurance and risk transfer solutions. Co.'s clients include insurance companies, corporations, the public sector and policyholders. Co.'s business units include: Property & Casualty Reinsurance, which includes the business lines property and casualty (including motor); Life & Health Reinsurance, which includes the life and health line of business; Corporate Solutions, which serves mid-sized and large corporations, with product offerings ranging from property and casualty insurance to customised solutions; and Admin Re®, which provides risk and capital management solutions.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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