Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 43.91 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight

Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. We will remain cautious and we will continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 is below its 200-day MA (currently 5750) or 5785 level. There have been substantial trading opportunities in both directions, and we expect that to continue; we discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass that a logical spot for a local bottom to develop was at then-current levels of 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. After a historic rally, we then discussed last week (4/15/25 Compass) how we were looking for the SPX rally to fizzle, "either *here* at 5490-5500 and the 20-day MA, the 200-day MA, or 5785 level." The SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower, and is testing 5100-5120 support, which has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against. If the SPX breaks below 5100, a test of the YTD lows would be likely in the 4800-4820 range, and we could easily see a break to new lows.

Big Picture Trends. Market dynamics continue to suggest more pain is likely. Nothing makes that more clear than RS for Consumer Staples (XLP) breaking to new YTD highs above crucial 1.5-year resistance -- and we are upgrading Staples to overweight. We continue to watch the steep 2-3-month uptrends on high yield spreads and RS for Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU); it is a clear risk-off environment if these uptrends are intact. U.S. interest rate volatility (MOVE index) remains at 2-year highs. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is breaking below $100 support as investors price-in higher political risk. 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are rising, but are still below crucial resistance levels... see below and pages 2-3.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remain above long-term support at prior highs from 2021, 2022, and 2023, and the lows from 2024, at 4800-4820 and $402-$412. It cannot be overstated how crucial this support is (bottom potential), all while knowing a breakdown would be very concerning. Resistance remains at 5490-5500, the 20-day MA, the 200-day MA (currently 5750), and 5785. If 4800 fails to hold on SPX, the next logical support area would be the 200-week MA (currently 4690) followed by 4600-4605; the 200-week MA has provided ideal buy opportunities since 2011 (it held as support during other 15-30% pullbacks in 2011, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022). Of course, we will want to see other market dynamics (discussed above) also line-up when attempting to pinpoint a major bottom... see page 4.
Underlyings
AKORA RESOURCES LTD

ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP PFD

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings

BJ's Wholesale Club holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, the company is a warehouse club operator. The company delivers value to its members, consistently providing 25% or more savings on a representative basket of manufacturer-branded groceries compared. The company provides a curated assortment focused on perishable products, continuously refreshed general merchandise, gasoline and other ancillary services to deliver a shopping experience. The company operates warehouse club in New York, Florida, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, Georgia, Delaware, Maine, Rhode Island and South Carolina.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

Coca-Cola Femsa SAB de CV (ADR)

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao Grupo Pao de Acucar Pref ADS

Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in the operation of membership warehouses based on the concept of providing its members low prices on a selection of nationally branded and private-label products. The company's merchandise are: food and sundries, which include dry foods, packaged foods, and groceries, snack foods, candy, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, and cleaning supplies; hardlines, which include appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, and garden and patio; fresh food, which include meat, produce, deli, and bakery; softlines, which include apparel and small appliances; and ancillary, which include gas stations and pharmacy businesses.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Dollar Tree Inc.

Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. ADS

ICL Group Ltd.

Israel Chemicals, through its subsidiaries, extracts raw materials and utilizes processing and product formulation technologies to add value to customers in the areas of agriculture, electronics, food, fuel and gas exploration, water purification and desalination, detergents, cosmetics, medicines and vehicles. Co. operates two segments: Essential Minerals and Specialty Solutions. The Essential Minerals segment includes the ICL Potash & Magnesium, ICL Phosphate and ICL Specialty Fertilizers business lines. The Specialty Solutions segment includes four business lines: ICL Industrial Products; ICL Specialty Fertilizers; ICL Advanced Additives and ICL Food Specialties.

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

Nutrien Ltd.

Nutrien Ltd is Canada-based crop nutrient producer and distributer of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial and feed customers worldwide. The Company is focused on retail, potash, nitrogen and phosphate mining and processing operations. The Company's retail operations serve growers in a number of countries across the United States, Canada, South Africa, Australia and South America. The Company operates six potash mines in Saskatchewan and has a mine in New Brunswick in care-and-maintenance mode. The Company operates integrated phosphate mining and processing facilities, as well as a number of smaller upgrading plants in the United States.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is a holding company. The company and its subsidiaries buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers. The company's product offerings include: cooking utensils, dishes, appliances, plastic containers, cutlery, storage and garbage bags, detergents and cleaning supplies; packaged food including coffee, bottled non-carbonated beverages and salty snacks; household goods including bedding and towels; books and stationery; floor coverings including laminate flooring, commercial and residential carpeting, area rugs and floor mats; and electronics, including air conditioners, home electronics and cellular accessories.

PriceSmart Inc.

PriceSmart owns and operates United States style membership shopping warehouse clubs in Central America, the Caribbean and Colombia. The company also functions as a wholesale supplier to a retailer in the Philippines. The company sells brand name and private label consumer products to individuals and businesses. The company provides three types of memberships: Business, Diamond and Platinum. Businesses qualify for Business membership. The Diamond membership is targeted at individuals and families. The Platinum membership provides members with a 2% rebate on several items, up to an annual maximum of $500.

SAVERS VALUE VILLAGE INC

Walmart Inc.

Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.

Winmark Corp.

Winmark is a franchisor of retail store concepts that buy, sell, and trade used merchandise. Each of the company's retail store brands provide used merchandise at savings from the price of new merchandise. The company's concepts also provide some new merchandise to customers. The company has two reportable business segments, franchising and leasing. The franchising segment franchises retail store concepts that buy, sell, trade and consign merchandise as well as provides consulting services related to franchising. The leasing segment includes Winmark Capital Corporation, its middle-market equipment leasing business and Wirth Business Credit, Inc., its small-ticket financing business.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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