Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 44.69 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Lockout Rally Continues

As discussed for the past two weeks, we are seeing more and more signs that lead us to believe the S&P 500 (SPX) made a major bottom at 4800-4820, which is where we initially discussed in our 4/8/25 Compass to look for a local bottom to develop. We have been short-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass -- when the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support -- but now we are upgrading our intermediate-term outlook to bullish as well. We titled last week's 5/6/25 Compass "Lockout Rally in Full Swing," and that very much remains the case. We are monitoring for potential resistance at 5860-5910 on the SPX as a spot where it could pull back. However, we would view any pullbacks as buying opportunities, and our short- and intermediate-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500.

Three Sector Weighting Changes. We are upgrading Technology to market weight, downgrading Consumer Staples to market weight, and downgrading Health Care to underweight... see pa
Underlyings
Alarm.com Holdings Inc.

Alarm.com is a platform for the intelligently connected property. The company provides a suite of cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties. The company's service provider partners can deploy its interactive security, video monitoring, intelligent automation and energy management solutions as stand-alone offerings or as combined solutions to address the needs of a range of customers. The company's subscribers can connect to their property through the company's family of mobile apps, websites, and engagement platforms like voice control through Amazon Echo and Google Home, wearable devices like the Apple Watch and TV platforms such as Apple TV and Amazon Fire TV.

AMERICAN INTL GROUP INC MITT NIK225

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

Domo Incorporated

Domo provides a platform that digitally connects people, data and systems in an organization, giving them access to real-time data and insights and allowing them to manage their business from their smartphones. The company's platform provides access to data through a set of connection options, including connectors. The company's data warehouse, Adrenaline, stores data from across the business. Fusion is the company's data transformation engine that sorts customer data. The company's Explorer analytics suite allows users to analyze, display, share and interact with data through visualizations. With the Domo Appstore, APIs and developer tool kits, the company enables an ecosystem of partners to build applications on the platform.

GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC.

Guidewire Software provides a technology platform, composed of software, services, and a partner ecosystem, for the property and casualty insurance industry. Guidewire InsurancePlatform? consists of cloud and on-premise applications to support core operations, data management and analytics, and digital engagement and is connected to various data sources and third party applications. The company's operational platforms include: Guidewire InsuranceSuite, which comprises of PolicyCenter, BillingCenter, and ClaimCenter applications; and Guidewire InsuranceNow, which provides policy, billing and claims management functionality to insurers that prefer to subscribe to a cloud-based, all-in-one solution.

ICL Group Ltd.

Israel Chemicals, through its subsidiaries, extracts raw materials and utilizes processing and product formulation technologies to add value to customers in the areas of agriculture, electronics, food, fuel and gas exploration, water purification and desalination, detergents, cosmetics, medicines and vehicles. Co. operates two segments: Essential Minerals and Specialty Solutions. The Essential Minerals segment includes the ICL Potash & Magnesium, ICL Phosphate and ICL Specialty Fertilizers business lines. The Specialty Solutions segment includes four business lines: ICL Industrial Products; ICL Specialty Fertilizers; ICL Advanced Additives and ICL Food Specialties.

Magic Software Enterprises Ltd.

Magic Software Enterprises is a provider of: proprietary application development and business process integration platforms; selected packaged vertical software solutions; as well as a vendor of software services and Internet Technology outsourcing software services. Co.'s software technology is used by customers to develop, deploy and integrate on-premise, mobile and cloud-based business applications. Co. provides a portfolio of services in the areas of infrastructure design and delivery, application development, technology consulting planning and implementation services, support services, cloud computing for deployment of applications and API's and supplemental outsourcing services.

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

Nutrien Ltd.

Nutrien Ltd is Canada-based crop nutrient producer and distributer of potash, nitrogen and phosphate products for agricultural, industrial and feed customers worldwide. The Company is focused on retail, potash, nitrogen and phosphate mining and processing operations. The Company's retail operations serve growers in a number of countries across the United States, Canada, South Africa, Australia and South America. The Company operates six potash mines in Saskatchewan and has a mine in New Brunswick in care-and-maintenance mode. The Company operates integrated phosphate mining and processing facilities, as well as a number of smaller upgrading plants in the United States.

Pegasystems Inc.

Pegasystems develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports enterprise software applications that help organizations transform the way they engage with their customers and process work across their enterprise. The company also licenses its low-code Pega Platform? for application development to clients to build and extend their own business applications. Pega Infinity? helps connect enterprises to their customers in real-time across channels, streamline business operations, and adapt to meet changing requirements. The company's applications and platform intersect with and encompass several software markets, including: customer engagement, digital process automation, and robotic process automation.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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