Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.69 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

More Room To Run; Downgrading Utilities

Ongoing bullish market dynamics and an absence of breakdowns for major indexes and Sectors continue to support our bullish outlook. As we explain below, new risk-on signals coming from emerging market equities, commodities, and Treasuries continue to be of the bullish variety. We believe this suggests equities have plenty of room to run higher; buy dips.

· S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000. Key support levels we are watching on the S&P 500 include short-term support at 3770, with the next important support levels coming in at the uptrend (~3730), 3635, 3588, and 3550. As long as 3550 holds, we believe a bullish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate. As for the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $314 is short-term support; if that fails to hold we will be watching for support at the uptrend (~$308) followed by $303.50-$305 and $298. The small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) broke to new price and RS highs following the Democrats sweeping the Georgia runoffs, a bullish risk-on signal for the broad market. Continue to overweight small-caps relative to large-caps, and watch for short-term support at $201 on the IWM... see chart below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. We are downgrading Utilities to underweight; RS is breaking below major support and hitting all-time lows on the cap- and equal-weighted S&P 500 Sectors (XLU and RYU) -- reduce exposure. Of course, new RS lows for a defensive Sector such as Utilities is typical in bull markets, so this is a welcomed sight for our bullish outlook... see pages 2-3.

· New Risk-On Signals From EM Equities, Treasuries, and Commodities. Emerging markets (EEM) display major long-term bullish price and RS inflections and are decisively breaking out to new highs. The 10-year Treasury yield is breaking above 0.96-0.97% resistance and is hitting 9.5-month highs. The Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) is breaking above its 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull market in commodities led by crude oil and base metals. These are clear signs of strong risk appetites and is not something we would expect to see if US equities were about to have a meaningful correction... see pages 4-5.
Underlyings
Alcoa Corporation

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting, casting, and rolling), and energy generation. Through direct and indirect ownership, the company has 30 operating locations in nine countries around the world, situated primarily in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and United States.

Alumina Ltd ADS

Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd.

Archrock Inc.

Archrock is an energy infrastructure company with a pure-play focus on midstream natural gas compression. The company is the provider of natural gas compression services to customers in the oil and natural gas industry and a supplier of aftermarket services to customers that own compression equipment. The company has two primary business segments: Contract Operations, which provides contract operations services, including the personnel, equipment, tools, materials and supplies to meet its customers' natural gas compression needs; and Aftermarket Services, which sells parts and components and provides operation, maintenance, overhaul and reconfiguration services to customers who own compression equipment.

Cactus Inc

Cactus is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is primarily engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of wellhead and pressure control equipment. In addition, the company maintains a fleet of frac valves and ancillary equipment for short-term rental. The company's products are sold and rented principally for onshore unconventional oil and gas wells and are utilized during the drilling, completion and production phases of its customers' wells. The company also provides field services for all of its products and rental items to assist with the installation, maintenance and handling of the wellhead and pressure control equipment as well as provides repair and refurbishment services.

Century Aluminum Company

Century Aluminum is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company produces primary aluminum and operates aluminum reduction facilities in the U.S. and Iceland. The company's principal subsidiaries are: Century Kentucky, Inc., which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Hawesville, KY; Nordural ehf, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Grundartangi, Iceland; Century Aluminum Sebree LLC, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Robards, KY; Century Aluminum of South Carolina, which operates a primary aluminum reduction facility in Goose Creek, SC; and Nordural Helguvik ehf, which owns a greenfield primary aluminum project in Helguvik, Iceland.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

ChampionX Corporation

Constellium SE Class A

Constellium N.V. designs and manufactures a range of innovative specialty rolled and extruded aluminum products, serving primarily the aerospace, packaging and automotive end-markets. Co. has a strategic footprint of manufacturing facilities located in the United States, Europe and China. Co.'s product portfolio commands higher margins as compared to less differentiated, more commoditized fabricated aluminum products, such as common alloy coils, paintstock, foilstock and soft alloys for construction and distribution. Co. organizes its business around three operating segments: Aerospace & Transportation, Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products, and Automotive Structures & Industry.

Forum Energy Technologies

Howmet Aerospace, Inc.

ICL Group Ltd.

Israel Chemicals, through its subsidiaries, extracts raw materials and utilizes processing and product formulation technologies to add value to customers in the areas of agriculture, electronics, food, fuel and gas exploration, water purification and desalination, detergents, cosmetics, medicines and vehicles. Co. operates two segments: Essential Minerals and Specialty Solutions. The Essential Minerals segment includes the ICL Potash & Magnesium, ICL Phosphate and ICL Specialty Fertilizers business lines. The Specialty Solutions segment includes four business lines: ICL Industrial Products; ICL Specialty Fertilizers; ICL Advanced Additives and ICL Food Specialties.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

Kaiser Aluminum manufactures and sells semi-fabricated specialty aluminum mill products. The company's aerospace and high strength products include heat treat plate and sheet, hard alloy extruded shapes, cold finish rod and bar, drawn tube and billet used for a variety of end uses in the aerospace and defense industries. Automotive Extrusions consist of extruded aluminum products for several North American automotive applications. The company's general engineering products consists of 6000-series alloy plate, sheet, rod, bar, tube, wire and standard extruded shapes. Other products consist of extruded, drawn and cast billet aluminum products for a range of North American industrial end uses.

Matrix Service Company

Matrix Service provides engineering, fabrication, infrastructure, construction, and maintenance services. The company's segments are: Electrical Infrastructure, which consists of power delivery services provided to investor owned utilities; Oil Gas and Chemical, which serves customers who are engaged in refining crude oil and processing, fractionating, and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids; Storage Solutions, which consists of work related to aboveground storage tanks and terminals; and Industrial, which consists of work for integrated iron and steel companies, main mining and minerals companies engaged in the extraction of copper, as well as companies in other industries.

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

Newpark Resources Inc.

Newpark Resources is engaged in providing products, rentals, and services primarily to the oil and natural gas exploration and production (E&P) industry. The company has two reportable segments: Fluids Systems, which provides customized drilling, completion, and stimulation fluids solutions to E&P customers; and Mats and Integrated Services, which provides composite mat rentals utilized for temporary worksite access, along with related site construction services to customers in various markets including E&P, electrical transmission & distribution, pipeline, solar, petrochemical, and construction industries across North America and Europe. The company also sells composite mats to customers around the world.

NexTier Oilfield Solutions Inc.

NexTier Oilfield Solutions is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a land oilfield focused service company, with a set of well completion and production services across active basins. The company provides its services through its operating subsidiaries to exploration and production customers. Also, the company provides its services in several active basins in the United States, including the Permian, the Marcellus Shale/Utica, the Eagle Ford and the Bakken/Rockies. The company is organized into two segments: Completion Services, which includes Hydraulic Fracturing and Wireline Technologies; and Well Construction and Intervention Services, which includes Cementing and Coiled Tubing.

Norsk Hydro ASA ADS

Nucor Corporation

Nucor manufactures steel and steel products. The company's operations include international trading and sales companies that buy and sell steel and steel products. The company's segments are: steel mills, which produces sheet steel, plate steel, structural steel, and bar steel; steel products, which produces hollow structural section steel tubing, electrical conduit, steel joists and joist girders, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel fasteners, metal building systems, and wire and wire mesh; and raw materials, which produces direct reduced iron (DRI), brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron, hot briquetted iron and DRI, supplies ferro-alloys, and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap metal.

Olympic Steel Inc.

Olympic Steel is a metals service center that operates in three segments; carbon flat products, specialty metals flat products, and tubular and pipe products. The company's carbon flat products segment's focus is on the direct sale and distribution of large volumes of processed carbon and coated flat-rolled sheet, coil and plate products and fabricated parts. The company's specialty metals flat products segment's focus is on the direct sale and distribution of processed aluminum and stainless flat-rolled sheet and coil products, flat bar products and fabricated parts. The company distributes metal tubing, pipe, bar, valves and fittings and fabricate pressure parts through its tubular and pipe products segment.

ProPetro Holding Corp.

ProPetro Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, the company is engaged as an oilfield services company providing hydraulic fracturing and other services to upstream oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of North American unconventional oil and natural gas resources. The company's operations are primarily focused in the Permian Basin. In addition to its core hydraulic fracturing operations, the company provides complementary well completion and production services, including cementing, coiled tubing, flowback services and drilling. The company conducts its business through five segments: hydraulic fracturing (inclusive of acidizing), cementing, coil tubing, flowback and drilling.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum is a metals service center company. The company provides metals processing services and distributes a line of metal products, including alloy, aluminum, brass, copper, carbon steel, stainless steel, titanium and specialty steel products, to its customers in a range of industries, including general manufacturing, non-residential construction (including infrastructure), transportation (rail, truck trailer and shipbuilding), aerospace and defense, energy (oil and gas), electronics and semiconductor fabrication, and heavy industry (agricultural, construction and mining equipment). The company also services the auto industry, primarily through its toll processing operations.

Rio Tinto PLC ADS (Mexico)

Ryerson Holding Corporation

Ryerson Holding is a metals service center, a processor and distributor of industrial metals. The company provides flat and long metals products. The company also provides processing and fabrication services such as bending, beveling, blanking, blasting, burning, cutting-to-length, drilling, embossing, flattening, forming, grinding, laser cutting, machining, notching, painting, perforating, polishing, punching, rolling, sawing, scribing, shearing, slitting, stamping, tapping, threading, welding, or other techniques to process materials to a specified thickness, length, width, shape, and surface quality pursuant to specific customer orders. The company operates across North America and in China.

Schindler Holding AG

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Class A

Scotts Miracle-Gro is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer lawn and garden products in North America. The company's segments are: United States Consumer, which consists of the company's consumer lawn and garden business located in United States; Hawthorne, which consists of the company's indoor, urban and hydroponic gardening business; and Other, which consists of the company's consumer lawn and garden business in geographies other than the United States and the company's product sales to nurseries, greenhouses and other customers. The company manufactures, markets and sells lawn and garden products in the following categories: lawn care, gardening and landscape, hydroponics, and controls.

Sims Metal Management Ltd. ADS

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of supply chain management and logistics solutions for the oil and natural gas industry. The company's offerings include: system rental, which manufactures and rents equipment to manage the delivery, handling and storage of proppant and chemicals at the well site; field services, which provides trained personnel to maintain and support its systems, train its customers to operate the systems and assist in the transportation of its systems; and transloading services, which provides manifest and unit-train transloading services, as well as provides forward staging storage of regional and local proppant.

Steel Dynamics Inc.

Steel Dynamics is a steel producer and metal recycler. The company manufactures and sells steel products, processes and sells recycled ferrous and nonferrous metals, and fabricates and sells steel joists and deck products. The company's segments are: Steel, which produces steel from ferrous scrap and scrap substitutes, utilizing casting, automated rolling mills and several downstream steel coating and bar processing lines, and Iron Dynamics; metals recycling, which involves the purchase, processing, and resale of ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades; and steel fabrication, which produces steel building components, including steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck.

TETRA Technologies Inc.

TETRA Technologies is an oil and gas services company, focused on completion fluids and associated products and services, water management, frac flowback, production well testing and offshore rig cooling services, and compression services and equipment. The company has three divisions: Completion Fluids & Products, which manufactures and markets clear brine fluids, additives, and associated products and services as well as markets liquid and dry calcium chloride products; Water and Flowback Services, which provides water management services; Compression, which provides compression services and equipment for natural gas and oil production, gathering, transportation, processing, and storage.

TimkenSteel Corp

TimkenSteel manufactures alloy steel, carbon and micro-alloy steel. The company's portfolio includes special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubing, solutions such as precision steel components, and billets. In addition, the company supplies machining and thermal treatment services, and the company manages raw material recycling programs. The company's products and services are used in the following market sectors: oil and gas; oil country tubular goods; automotive; industrial equipment; mining; construction; rail; aerospace and defense; heavy truck; agriculture; and power generation. The company's products include: SBQ Steel Bar, Seamless Mechanical Steel Tubes, and Billets; and Precision Products and Services.

Triple-S Management Corporation Class B

Triple-S Management is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a portfolio of managed care and related products in the Commercial, Medicare, and the Government health insurance plan markets. The company's operations are conducted through three segments: Managed Care, which provides a range of managed care products, including Health Maintenance Organization plans, Preferred Provider Organization plans, Medicare Supplement, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid plans; Life Insurance, which provides a variety of life, accident, disability and health and annuity products in Puerto Rico; and Property and Casualty Insurance, which provides a range of property and casualty insurance products.

United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel is a steel producer of flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in the United States and Europe. The company is also engaged in railroad services and real estate operations. The company's segments are: North American Flat-Rolled, which produces slabs, strip mill plates, sheets and tin mill products; U. S. Steel Europe, which produces and sells slabs, strip mill plate, sheet, tin mill products and spiral welded pipe, as well as heating radiators and refractory ceramic materials; and Tubular Products, which produces and sells electric resistance welded steel casing and tubing (known as oil country tubular goods), and standard and line pipe and mechanical tubing.

USA Compression Partners LP

Worthington Industries Inc.

Worthington Industries is a metals manufacturing company, focused on steel processing and manufactured metal products. The company operates three segments: Steel Processing, which buys coils of steel from integrated steel mills and mini-mills and processes them to customer specifications; Pressure Cylinders, which manufactures and sells filled and unfilled pressure cylinders, tanks, hand torches, well water and expansion tanks, and oil and gas equipment with accessories and related products for end-use market applications; and Engineered Cabs, which designs and manufactures custom-engineered open and enclosed cabs and operator stations and custom fabrications and packaging for mobile equipment.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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