Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 47.31 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Testing Key Support

In last Tuesday's Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&P 500's break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward. Should 3200-3230 fail to hold, 3130 (the 200-day MA) would be a key line in the sand for us. If this level holds we see the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, however a break below 3130 would signal a bearish trend change. While the election results are likely to bring a healthy dose of volatility, it will also provide some clarity to a topic that the market has been concerned about -- and the market craves clarity.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Aside from Energy, every Sector remains above major support. In fact, many Sectors bounced off support yesterday with authority (2-3%+ gains), something we view as a positive sign that increases the chances that 3200-3230 support will hold on the S&P 500... see pages 2-3.

· Banks, 10-Year Treasury Yield, Value vs. Growth. Banks' (KBE, KRE) price and RS show signs of bottoming alongside the 10-year Treasury yield; this is not something we would expect to see if the broad market was headed lower. The rising 10-year Treasury yield has also allowed value to continue gaining ground relative to growth across all market capitalizations as value vs. growth ratios show signs of bottoming. Still, we remain neutral on value vs. growth... see pages 4-5.

· Semiconductors, Emerging Markets/China At Multi-Month RS Highs. When banks and semiconductors (XSD) both look attractive, it is hard to be too negative on the broad market. Similarly, with EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, KWEB) near multi-month price and RS highs, how bad can things really be in the grand scheme of things?.
Underlyings
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES

Allegiance Bancshares is a bank holding company. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Allegiance Bank, the company provides a range of commercial banking services primarily to small to medium-sized businesses within the Houston region, professionals and individual customers. The company provides a range of commercial and retail lending services, including commercial loans, loans to small businesses guaranteed by the Small Business Administration, mortgage loans, home equity loans, personal loans and automobile loans, among others. The company provides a variety of deposit products and services, with an emphasis on small to medium-sized businesses.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ADR)

BGC Partners Inc. Class A

BGC Partners is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a brokerage and financial technology company servicing the financial markets. Through its financial service brands, including BGC, GFI, Sunrise Brokers, Besso, Poten and Partners and R.P. Martin, among others, the company focuses on the brokerage of a range of products, including fixed income (rates and credit), foreign exchange, equities, energy and commodities, insurance, and futures. The company also provides a range of services, including trade execution, broker-dealer services, clearing, trade compression, post trade, information, and other back-office services to a range of financial and non-financial institutions.

BOK Financial Corporation

BOK Financial is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides service banking in Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, Northwest Arkansas, Colorado, Arizona, and Kansas/Missouri. The company's principal lines of business are: Commercial Banking, which includes lending, treasury and cash management services and customer risk management products; Consumer Banking, which retail lending and deposit services, lending and deposit services; and Wealth Management, which provides fiduciary services, private bank services and investment advisory services, as well as underwrites state and municipal securities and engages in brokerage and trading activities.

Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a financial holding company and a bank holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of products and services throughout various Texas markets. The company provides commercial and consumer banking services, as well as trust and investment management, insurance, brokerage, mutual funds, leasing, treasury management, capital markets advisory and item processing services. The company serves a variety of industries including, among others, energy, manufacturing, services, construction, retail, telecommunications, healthcare, military and transportation. The company's reportable operating segments are: Banking and Frost Wealth Advisors.

Evercore Inc Class A

Evercore is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an investment banking advisory firm. The company's segments include: Investment Banking, which includes the advisory business through which it provides advice to clients on mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, shareholder activism and other corporate transactions, and the Evercore International Strategy and Investment business through which it provides macroeconomic, policy and fundamental equity research and agency-based equity securities trading for institutional investors; and Investment Management, which includes the wealth management business through which it provides investment advisory, wealth management and fiduciary services.

First Bancorp

First BanCorp is a financial holding company that provides financial services for retail, commercial and institutional clients. The company's segments are: Commercial and Corporate Banking, which provides commercial loans; Mortgage Banking, which provides residential mortgage loans; Consumer (Retail) Banking, which provides consumer lending, deposit-taking and insurance agency activities; Treasury and Investments, which provides treasury and investment management; United States Operations, which consists of banking activities in the United States mainland; Virgin Islands Operations, which consists of banking activities in the United States Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

HDFC Bank Limited Sponsored ADR

ICICI Bank Limited Sponsored ADR

INDEPENDENT BANK GROUP INC

Independent Bank Group is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, Independent Bank, the company provides a range of banking services to individual and corporate customers in the north, central and southeast Texas areas. The company is engaged in community banking activities, which include commercial and retail lending, deposit gathering, investment and liquidity management activities. The company's primary deposit products are demand deposits, money market accounts and certificates of deposit, and its primary lending products are commercial business and real estate, real estate mortgage and consumer loans.

KB Financial Group Inc. ADS

Mizuho Financial Group ADR

National Australia Bank Ltd. ADS

OFG Bancorp

OFG Bancorp is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides banking and financial services to its clients through a range of banking and financial solutions. The company's business segments include: Banking, which provides deposits and commercial, consumer and mortgage loans, and mortgage banking activities; Wealth Management, which include financial planning, money management, investment banking, brokerage services, insurance sales activity, corporate and individual trust, and retirement services, as well as retirement plan administration services; and Treasury, which encompasses all of the company's asset/liability management activities.

Popular Inc.

Popular is a financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a financial institution based in Puerto Rico. The company operates in two principal markets: Puerto Rico, which provides retail, mortgage, and commercial banking services through its principal banking subsidiary, Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, as well as auto and equipment leasing and financing, investment banking, broker-dealer and insurance services through various subsidiaries; and Mainland United States, which provides retail, mortgage and commercial banking services through its New York-chartered banking subsidiary, Popular Bank, which has branches in New York, New Jersey and Florida.

Raymond James Financial Inc.

Raymond James Financial is a bank holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in financial services activities. The company's segments include: Private Client Group, which provides financial planning and securities transaction services through a branch office network; Capital Markets, which conducts institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, investment banking and the syndication and management of investments that qualify for tax credits; Asset Management, which provides portfolio management and related administrative services for retail and institutional clients; and Raymond James Bank, N.A., which provides loans such as corporate loans.

Shinhan Financial Group Co. Ltd.

Southside Bancshares Inc.

Southside Bancshares is a bank holding company for Southside Bank. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and nonprofit organizations in the communities that it serves. These services include consumer and commercial loans, deposit accounts, wealth management and trust services, brokerage services and safe deposit services. The company provides a variety of deposit accounts with a range of interest rates and terms, including savings, money market, interest and noninterest bearing checking accounts and certificates of deposit.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (ADS)

Texas Capital Bancshares Inc.

Texas Capital Bancshares is a bank holding company. Through its subsidiary, Texas Capital Bank, National Association, the company serves commercial businesses and professionals and entrepreneurs located in Texas as well as operates several lines of business serving a regional or national clientele of commercial borrowers. The company is a lender, with most of its loans held for investment, excluding mortgage finance loans and other national lines of business, being made to businesses headquartered or with operations in Texas. The company's business deposit products include commercial checking accounts, lockbox accounts, cash concentration accounts and other treasury management services, including online banking.

Triumph Bancorp Inc.

Triumph Bancorp is a financial holding company. Through its bank subsidiary, TBK Bank, SSB, the company provides banking services, commercial finance product lines focused on businesses that require financial solutions. The company's banking offerings include a suite of lending and deposit products and services focused on its local market areas. The company originates a suite of commercial and retail loans including commercial real estate loans, construction and development loans, residential real estate loans, commercial agriculture, general commercial loans, and consumer loans primarily focused on customers in and around its community banking markets.

Westpac Banking Corp. ADS

Woori Bank ADR

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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