Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) to OverweightA weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began on April 22nd, which is when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25 Compass) as the SPX was testing 5100-5120 support. We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below). Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge), where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). There is a strong possibility that 5700-5785 support holds, but our outlook will remain bullish as long as the SPX is above 5500.
Gap Supports Holding. The S&P 500 wasn't the only index testing gap support from May 12th at 5700-5785; the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) tested gap support at $493-$501 and the Russell 2000 (IWM) tested gap support at $202.
The Cheesecake Factory operates casual dining restaurants. The company operates Company-owned restaurants under: The Cheesecake Factory?, which provides menu including appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, sandwiches and omelettes, and gluten-free items; Grand Lux Cafe?, which provides American dishes and international favorites, including appetizers, pasta, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, salads, and desserts; and RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen?, which showcases the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and India. The company also produces desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.
Darden Restaurants is a restaurant company. The company owns and operates restaurants through subsidiaries in the U.S. and Canada under the Olive Garden?, LongHorn Steakhouse?, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen?, Yard House?, The Capital Grille?, Seasons 52?, Bahama Breeze?, and Eddie V's Prime Seafood? trademarks. The company has four reportable segments: Olive Garden; LongHorn Steakhouse; Fine Dining (which includes The Capital Grille and Eddie V's); and Other Business (which includes Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Yard House, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and results from its franchise operations).
Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.
Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and provides services related to its products. The company operates as two reportable segments: automotive, which includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits; and energy generation and storage, which includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, services related to such products, and sales of solar energy system incentives.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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