Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.38 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading cap-weighted Communications to overweight; 10 to 2's Treasury spread breaking out

We continue to move increasingly toward the bullish camp and we believe equities are poised for higher prices moving forward. Below we highlight several developments which help lead us to this conclusion.

• 10 to 2's Treasury yield spread widening & breaking out. The 10 to 2's spread is quietly breaking out to YTD highs and breaking above a ~2.5-year downtrend. This steepening yield curve is good for Financials/banks and also the economy as recession concerns are subsiding... see chart below.

• Communications upgrade. We are upgrading cap-weighted Communications to overweight -- add exposure. Relative strength for the Communication Services Sector SPDR ETF (XLC) is breaking out following a prolonged basing pattern and the price uptrend is intact. Actionable Communications stocks highlighted: TWTR, DISCA, ATUS, RDFN, NPSNY, AABA, YNDX, CETV, GLIBA, DISH, SPGI, and MCO... see pages 2-5 for additional comments and charts.

• Small-caps and banks poised to break out. Breakouts in the Russell 2000 small-cap index and the KBW Bank index are two bullish developments that have eluded us thus far. We believe that is about to change as both of these risk-on areas of the market are on the cusp of breakouts... see page 6.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Financials, Services, Technology and Manufacturing: FN-27 Credit Card Issuers, SV-23 Education Services, China, TE-39 Solar Energy, and MF-30 Industrial Rental Equipment... see pages 13-23.
Underlyings
Altaba Inc Registered Ex. First and Final Liquidating Distribution

Altaba is a publicly traded, non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The company's investment objective is to seek to increase the price per share at which it trades relative to then-existing values of its principal underlying assets (the Alibaba Group Holding Limited (Alibaba) ordinary shares and American Depositary Shares and Yahoo Japan Corporation (Yahoo Japan) shares of common stock). In addition to the Alibaba shares and Yahoo Japan shares, the company also owns investments in certain additional companies Excalibur IP, LLC, which owns a portfolio of patent assets and short-term investments.

Altice USA Inc. Class A

Altice USA is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides broadband communications and video services and markets its services primarily under two brands: Optimum, in the New York metropolitan area, and Suddenlink, principally in markets in the south-central United States. The company delivers broadband, video, and telephony services to the residential and business customers. The company also provides fiber connectivity, bandwidth and managed services to enterprise customers through its Lightpath business (also marketed as Altice Business) and the company provides advertising time and services to advertisers. The company has launched Altice Mobile, a mobile offering, to consumers across its footprint.

American Express Company

American Express is a payments company. The company is engaged in providing credit and charge cards to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and corporations. The company's reportable operating segments are: Global Consumer Services Group, which provides services to consumers, including travel and lifestyle services; Global Commercial Services, which provides payment and expense management services, as weel as commercial financing products; and Global Merchant and Network Services, which operates a global payments network that processes and settles card transactions, acquires merchants and provides multi-channel marketing programs and capabilities, and services and data analytics.

Bright Scholar Education Holdings Limited Sponsored ADR Class A

Canadian Solar Inc.

Capital One Financial Corporation

Capital One Financial is a financial services holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company provides an array of financial products and services. The company's segments are: Credit Card, which consists of the company's domestic consumer and small business card lending, and international card businesses in Canada and the United Kingdom.; Consumer Banking, which consists of the company's deposit gathering and lending activities for consumers and small businesses, and national auto lending; and Commercial Banking, which consists of the company's lending, deposit gathering, capital markets and treasury management services to commercial real estate and commercial and industrial customers.

Central European Media Enterprises Ltd. Cl A

DISCOVER FINANCIAL SERVICES

Discover Financial Services is a bank holding, as well as a financial holding company. The company manages its business activities in two segments: Direct Banking, which includes consumer banking and lending products, specifically Discover-branded credit cards issued to individuals on the Discover Network and other consumer banking products and services, including student loans, personal loans, home equity loans, and deposit products; and Payment Services, which includes the PULSE network, Diners Club International and its Network Partners business, which provides payment transaction processing and settlement services on the Discover Network.

Discovery Inc. Class A

Discovery, through its subsidiaries, is a media company that provides content across distribution platforms, including pay-television, free-to-air and broadcast television, and direct-to-consumer subscription products. The company's portfolio of networks includes nonfiction television brands such as Discovery Channel, HGTV, Food Network, TLC, Animal Planet, Science Channel, and MotorTrend . The company's portfolio includes Eurosport, a sports entertainment provider. The company classifies its operations in two segments: U.S. Networks, consisting of domestic television networks and digital content services, and International Networks, consisting of international television networks and digital content services.

DISH Network Corporation Class A

DISH Network is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates two business segments: Pay-TV and Wireless. The company provides pay-TV services under: the DISH? brand, which consists of, among other things, Federal Communications Commission licenses authorizing the company to use direct broadcast satellite and Fixed Satellite Service spectrum, the company's owned and leased satellites, and certain other assets utilized in the company's operations; and the Sling? brand, which consists of, among other things, live-linear streaming over-the-top Internet-based domestic, international and Latino video programming services. In addition, the company invests to acquire certain wireless spectrum licenses and related assets.

Enphase Energy Inc.

Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on one platform. The company's semiconductor-based microinverter converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. The Enphase Home Energy Solution with IQ consists of four primary components: Enphase microinverters, the AC Battery?, an Envoy gateway, and Enlighten cloud-based software.

First Solar Inc.

First Solar is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology, and also develops and sells PV solar power systems that mainly use the modules it manufactures. The company also provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners. The company's modules segment involves the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The company's second segment is its systems segment, through which it provides power plant solutions, which include project development, engineering, procurement, and construction services and O&M services.

GCI Liberty Inc. Class A

GCI Liberty is a holding company. Through its GCI Holdings, LLC (GCI Holdings) subsidiary, the company owns and operates a statewide network providing voice and data services to the urban and rural communities of Alaska. The company provides a range of wireless, data, video, voice, and managed services to residential customers, businesses, governmental entities, and educational and medical institutions primarily in Alaska under its GCI brand. GCI Holdings serves rural and remote Alaska locations solely via satellite communications. Its statewide wireless network provides 4G LTE data service, EVDO, 3G UMTS/HSPA+, 2G CDMA, and 2G GSM/EDGE service.

H&E Equipment Services Inc.

H&E Equipment Services is an equipment services company focused on heavy construction and industrial equipment. The company rents, sells and provides parts and services support for four main categories of equipment: hi-lift or aerial work platform equipment; cranes; earthmoving equipment; and industrial lift trucks. The company engages in five principal business activities in these equipment categories which include equipment rentals; new equipment sales; used equipment sales; parts sales; and repair and maintenance services. In addition to its principal business activities, the company provides ancillary equipment support activities including transportation, hauling, parts shipping and loss damage waivers.

Herc Holdings Inc.

Herc Holdings is an equipment rental supplier. The company conducts its operations through subsidiaries, including Herc Rentals Inc. Operations are conducted under the Herc Rentals brand in the U.S. and Canada and under the Hertz Equipment Rental brand in other international locations. The company sells used equipment and contractor supplies such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment and safety supplies; provides repair, maintenance and equipment management services and safety training to certain of its customers; provides equipment re-rental services and provides on-site support to its customers; and provides ancillary services such as equipment transport, cleaning, refueling and labor.

JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR

Moody's Corporation

Moody's is a provider of credit ratings and assessment services; credit, capital markets and economic research, data and analytical tools; software solutions that support financial risk management activities; quantitatively derived credit scores; learning solutions and certification services; and company information and business intelligence products. The company's segments are: Moody's Investors Service, which publishes credit ratings on a range of debt obligations and the entities that issue such obligations in markets worldwide; and Moody's Analytics, which provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to assist businesses in making decisions.

Naspers Ltd. ADS

New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. Sponsored ADR

Redfin Corporation

Redfin is a residential real estate brokerage, representing customers in over various markets throughout the U.S. and Canada. The company operates an online real estate marketplace and provides real estate services, including assisting individuals in the purchase or sale of their residential property. The company also provides title and settlement services, originates and sells mortgages, and buys and sells residential property. The company has operations located in various states nationwide.

S&P Global Inc.

S&P Global is a provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The company's segments include: S&P Global Ratings, which provides credit ratings, research and analytics; S&P Global Market Intelligence, which provides multi-asset-class data, research and analytical capabilities that integrate cross-asset analytics and desktop services; S&P Global Platts, which provides information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets; and S&P Dow Jones Indices, which provides a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.

SunPower Corporation

SunPower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy company that delivers solar solutions to residential, commercial, and power plant customers worldwide. The company has two segments: SunPower Energy Services, which refers to sales of solar energy solutions in the North America including direct sales of turn-key engineering, procurement and construction services, and sales to resellers, among other; and SunPower Technologies, which refers to its technology development, worldwide solar panel manufacturing operations, equipment supply to resellers, commercial and residential end-customers outside of North America, and worldwide power plant project development and project sales.

Sunrun Inc.

Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company's main solar service offerings are provided through its lease and power purchase agreements, which it refers to as its Customer Agreements. While homeowners have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from the company, a majority of its customers choose to buy solar as a service through its Customer Agreements. With its solar service offerings, the company installs solar energy systems on its customers' homes and provides them the solar power produced by those systems. In addition, the company monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract.

Synchrony Financial

Synchrony Financial is a savings and loan holding company and financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company delivers a range of financing programs, as well as consumer banking products, across key industries including digital, retail, home, auto, travel, health and pet. The company provides a range of credit products through its financing programs which it has established with a group of national and regional retailers, local merchants, manufacturers, buying groups, industry associations and healthcare service providers, which it refers to as its partners. Through its partners, the company provides their customers a variety of credit products to finance the purchase of goods and services.

TAL Education Group Sponsored ADR Class A

Twitter Inc.

Twitter provides products and services for people, organizations, advertisers, developers and platform and data partners. The company's product, Twitter, is a global platform for public self-expression and conversation in real time. The company's mobile application, Periscope, lets anyone broadcast and watch video live with others. The company's products and services for advertisers include Promoted Products such as Promoted Tweets, Promoted Accounts, and Promoted Trends. The company's products for developers and data partners provide tools and public application programming interfaces to build applications and other products that utilize Twitter data and syndicate and distribute Twitter content across their properties.

United Rentals Inc.

United Rentals is an equipment rental company that operates throughout the United States and Canada, and Europe. The company's general rentals segment includes the rental of construction, aerial and industrial equipment, general tools and light equipment, and related services and activities. This segment's customers include construction and industrial companies, manufacturers, utilities, municipalities and homeowners. The company's trench, power and fluid solutions segment includes the rental of construction products and related services. This segment consist of: Trench Safety region, Power and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning region; and Fluid Solutions and Fluid Solutions Europe regions.

Yandex NV Class A

Yandex is an internet and technology company that operates an internet search engine in Russia. Co. builds intelligent products and services powered by machine learning. Co.'s products and services are based on complex, unique technologies that are not easily replicated. Co. generates substantially all of its revenues from online advertising. Co. also generates revenues from its e-commerce offerings, classifieds and e-hailing service. Co.'s businesses are organized in the following operating segments: Search and Portal; E-commerce; Taxi; Classifieds and Experimental businesses.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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