Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 220.60 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

The following synopsis provides Summary details of our current investment outlook:

• U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar had attempted a breakdown but has thus far held firm at the 96.61 level. However, the longer-term downtrend remains intact with the dollar unable to overtake its 200-day moving average at 97.70. A break to the downside will tip the scale in the direction of emerging markets and precious metals, while a break to the upside will likely foster another surge into growth related names.

• High yield spreads: Spreads continue to narrow and suggest a risk-on environment. The Fed remains accommodative to the current low rate environment.

• Defensive areas continue to underperform. Investor sentiment and appetites remain skewed in favor of cyclical Sectors; Consumer Staples and Utilities are RS laggards.

• Small-caps vs Large-caps: The Russell 2000 has not hit new lows vs large-caps but is also not showing signs of leadership. We believe this action is one thing missing from our bullish equation.

• Percentage of stocks above their respective 20-day and 200-day moving averages: Currently 84.10 % of S&P 500 constituents are above their 200-day moving average and, 82.18% are above their 50-day moving average. The Russell 2000 is reflecting 66.2% of constituents above their 200-day and 67.44% above their 50-day moving average. This certainly suggests that strength is coming from the large-cap equities at the expense of small-caps. Our concern would be that without the aid of the Materials Sector, Energy Sector, Transport Sector, and the Industrial Sectors the rally may not be able to sustain itself at current levels.

• Interest rates: Inflation continues to remain subdued and the Fed remains vigilant in its desire to sustain growth and avert any potential for a slowdown.

• Commodities: There is no real surprise in this area. Natural gas is suffering a washout and crude oil remains in a consolidation. Perhaps the one area that is intriguing on the long-term charts is precious metals. Gold, silver and platinum continue to carve out major bases and we believe any breakout to new highs could muster in a significant rally.

• Emerging markets and European markets: Emerging markets as defined by the EEM ETF continues to carve out a bullish base, however it is not outperforming U.S. markets and remains mired in a decade-long downtrend. The STOXX 600 is breaking to a new high and is breaking out of a 20-year base, but despite the strength, the U.S. markets continue to outperform.

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.

Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.
Underlyings
Ambarella Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services Inc.

Fidelity National Information Services is a provider of technology solutions for merchants, banks, and capital markets firms globally. The company's solutions include merchant acquiring solutions; payment solutions; global eCommerce solutions; processing and ancillary applications solutions; digital solutions; fraud, risk management and compliance solutions; electronic funds transfer and network services solutions; card and retail payment solutions; wealth and retirement solutions; item processing and output services solutions; securities processing and finance solutions; global trading solutions; asset management and insurance solutions; and corporate liquidity solutions.

iShares U.S. Home Construction

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc.

MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of analog semiconductor solutions that enable internet applications, the cloud connected apps economy and the networked battlefield across the radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeterwave and lightwave spectrum. The company's primary markets are: Telecom, which includes carrier infrastructure like long-haul/metro, 5G and fiber-to-the-X/passive optical network; Data Centers, enabled by a portfolio of analog ICs and photonic components for high speed optical module consumers; and Industrial and Defense, which includes military and commercial radar, RF jammers, electronic and countermeasures.

MASTERCARD INCORPORATED

Mastercard is a technology company in the global payments industry. The company's solutions enabling consumers to use electronic forms of payment instead of cash and checks. The company provides a range of payment solutions and services using its brands, including Mastercard?, Maestro? and Cirrus?. The company is a multi-rail network that provides customers one partner to turn to for their domestic and cross-border payment needs. The company has additional payment capabilities that include automated clearing house transactions. The company also provides offerings such as cyber and intelligence products, information and analytics services, consulting, loyalty and reward programs and processing.

Microchip Technology Incorporated

Microchip Technology develops, manufactures and sells semiconductor products. The company's product portfolio comprises general purpose and other eight-bit, 16-bit, 32-bit microcontrollers, 32-bit microprocessors, field-programmable gate array products, a range of linear, mixed-signal, power management, thermal management, discrete diodes, Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistors, radio frequency, timing, timing systems, safety, security, wired connectivity and wireless connectivity devices, serial Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory, Serial Flash memories, Parallel Flash memories, Serial Electrically Erasable Random Access Memory and serial Static Random Access Memory.

Micron Technology Inc.

Micron Technology provides memory and storage solutions. The company's portfolio of memory and storage technologies include Dynamic Random Access Memory, Not And, 3D XPoint? memory, and Not Or. The company's segments are: Compute and Networking Business, which includes memory products sold into client, cloud server, enterprise, graphics, and networking markets; Mobile Business, which includes memory products sold into smartphone and other mobile-device markets; Storage Business, which includes Solid-State Drives and component-level solutions sold into enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; and Embedded Business, which includes memory and storage products.

NICE Systems Ltd (ADR)

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company's combined payment solutions include its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and iZettle products and services. PayPal's payment solutions enable the company's customers to send and receive payments. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person. The company provides proprietary payment solutions accepted by merchants that enable the completion of payments on the company's Payments Platform on behalf of its customers.

RingCentral Inc. Class A

RingCentral is a provider of software-as-a-service solutions. The company's product portfolio, among others, includes: RingCentral Office, which provides a unified activity for communication and collaboration across multiple modes; RingCentral Meetings, which is a collaborative meetings solution that provides web meetings, video conferencing, and screen sharing integrated with team messaging; RingCentral Professional, which is a cloud based virtual telephone service offering designed for personnel who are on the go; and RingCentral Fax, which provides online fax capabilities that allow businesses to send and receive fax documents without the need for a fax machine.

ServiceNow Inc.

ServiceNow provides enterprise cloud computing services that define, structure, manage and automate digital workflows for global enterprises. The company markets its services to enterprises in a variety of industries, including consumer products, education, financial services, government, health care, information technology (IT) services and technology. The company sells its subscription services through direct sales and, to a lesser extent, through indirect channel sales. The company also provides a portfolio of personnel and other services, both directly and through its network of partners. The company's products include IT service management, IT operations management, IT business management, and security operations.

SHOPIFY INC.

Shopify provides a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants use its software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including web, tablet and mobile storefronts, social media storefronts, and brick-and-mortar and pop-up shops. Co. provides a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand and grow its business. Co.'s platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting.

Tower Semiconductor Ltd

Tower Semiconductor is a pure-play independent specialty foundry dedicated to the manufacturing of semiconductors. Typically, pure-play foundries do not offer products of their own, but focus on producing integrated circuits based on the design specifications of their customers. Co. manufactures semiconductors using advanced production processes for Co.'s customers primarily based on third party designs and Co.'s own proprietary designs. Co. offers the manufacture of integrated circuits with geometries ranging from 1.0 to 45-nanometers. Co. also provides design support and complementary technical services.

Visa Inc. Class A

Visa is engaged in digital payments. The company facilitates payments between consumers and businesses. The company is focused on its proprietary network, VisaNet, to provide products and services. The company provides a portfolio of business payment solutions, including small business, corporate (travel) cards, purchasing cards, virtual cards/digital credentials, non-card cross-border business-to-business payment options and disbursement accounts, covering various main industry segments around the world. The company also provides several capabilities and services, including fraud prevention and security, processing, loyalty, merchant and digital solutions, consulting and data solutions.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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