Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.38 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Treasury yields tell the tale

As Treasury yields began moving off the lows on 9/5/19 due to a variety of factors, investors took profits from large-caps, growth, and defensives and migrated to small-caps, value, and cyclicals. This was a shift from areas of obvious leadership to areas that had been left for dead, something that, if it can continue, would greatly improve the prospects of a broad-based move higher. However, a primary concern of ours is whether this shift has staying power. As we highlight below, we believe the jury is still out, leaving our overall neutral outlook intact.

• Treasury yields are paramount. The move into small-caps & deep value cyclicals and the S&P 500's breakout topside its 50-dma coincided with a meaningful lift off of the lows in the 10-year Treasury yield. So is the bottom in for Treasury yields?... see chart below.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Despite some sharp RS movements over the past two weeks, defensive Sectors including Utilities and cap-weighted Communications & Staples remain at the top of our rankings, evidence that investors are still erring on the side of caution... see pages 2-3.

• Positive Developments. The small- vs. large-cap ratio shows early signs of bottoming and the uptrend in the growth vs. value ratio is breaking down, both of which have historically been positive indicators for economic growth and a risk-on environment. These are undoubtedly encouraging signals -- but can they continue? We examine... see page 3.

• Small-cap Banks improving, joins other cyclicals at logical price resistance. With value closing the gap on growth, it is no surprise to see banks beginning to improve - especially for the most vulnerable small-caps. Still, banks and several other key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market remain below important resistance levels, suggesting the broad market is not yet out of the woods... see pages 3-4.

In today's report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Technology: CD-06 Homebuilding, Large-Cap, CD-07 Homebuilding, Small-Cap, TE-04 Semiconductor Equip,. Large/Mid-cap, and TE-39 Solar Energy... see pages 13-31.
Underlyings
Applied Materials Inc.

Applied Materials provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the semiconductor, display and related industries. The company's segments are: Semiconductor Systems, which develops, manufactures and sells a range of manufacturing equipment used to fabricate semiconductor chips; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to support equipment and fab performance and productivity; and Display and Adjacent Markets, which is comprised of products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices.

ASML Holding N.V.

Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Cavco Industries Inc.

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through a network of independent and the company-owned retailers, planned community operators and residential developers, marketed under a variety of brand names including Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle and Lexington. The company is also a producer of park model RVs, vacation cabins and systems-built commercial structures, as well as modular homes built under the Nationwide Homes brand. Each home contains a living room, dining area, kitchen, one to five bedrooms and one or more bathrooms, is equipped with central heat and hot water systems, kitchen appliances, floor coverings and window treatments.

Century Communities Inc.

Century Communities is engaged in the development, design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. The company builds and sells homes under its Century Communities and Wade Jurney Homes brands. The company's Century Communities brand targets a range of buyer profiles including: first time, first and second time move up, and lifestyle homebuyers, and provides its homebuyers with the ability to personalize their homes through certain option and upgrade selections. The company's Wade Jurney Homes brand targets first time homebuyers, primarily sells homes through retail studios and over the internet and provides no option or upgrade selections.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Enphase Energy Inc.

Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on one platform. The company's semiconductor-based microinverter converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. The Enphase Home Energy Solution with IQ consists of four primary components: Enphase microinverters, the AC Battery?, an Envoy gateway, and Enlighten cloud-based software.

First Solar Inc.

First Solar is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology, and also develops and sells PV solar power systems that mainly use the modules it manufactures. The company also provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners. The company's modules segment involves the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The company's second segment is its systems segment, through which it provides power plant solutions, which include project development, engineering, procurement, and construction services and O&M services.

JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. Sponsored ADR

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

KLA Corporation

KLA is a supplier of process control and yield management solutions for the semiconductor and related nanoelectronics industries. The company provides process control and process-enabling solutions for manufacturing and testing wafers and reticles, integrated circuits, packaging, light emitting diodes, power devices, compound semiconductor devices, microelectromechanical systems, data storage, printed circuit boards (PCBs), and flat and flexible panel displays, as well as general materials research. The company has four reportable segments which include Semiconductor Process Control; Specialty Semiconductor Process; PCB, Display and Component Inspection; and Other.

Lam Research Corporation

Lam Research is a supplier of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. The company's customer base includes semiconductor memory, foundry, and integrated device manufacturers that make products such as non-volatile memory, dynamic random-access memory, and logic devices. The company's services include customer service, spares, improvement, and refurbishment of its deposition, etch, and clean products. The company sells its products and services to companies in the United States, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan.

Lennar Corp. Cl B

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

M.D.C. Holdings Inc.

M.D.C. Holdings is engaged in the homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations consist of its subsidiaries that purchase finished or develop lots to the extent necessary for the construction and sale primarily of single-family detached homes to first-time and first-time move-up homebuyers. The company's financial services operations include: HomeAmerican Mortgage Corporation, which originates mortgage loans for its homebuyers; American Home Insurance Agency, Inc., which provides third-party insurance products to its homebuyers; and American Home Title and Escrow Company, which provides title agency services to its homebuilding subsidiaries and its customers in certain states.

M/I Homes Inc.

M/I Homes is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family residential homes. The company designs, sells and builds single-family homes on developed lots, which it develops or purchases ready for home construction. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for future construction of single-family homes and, on a limited basis, for sale to others. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations have two reporting segments: the Northern and Southern regions. The company's financial services operations support its homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations.

Meritage Homes Corporation

Meritage Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in designing and building single-family homes. The company provides homes that are designed with a focus on first-time and first move-up buyers. The company also operates a title company, Carefree Title Agency, Inc. (Carefree Title). Carefree Title's core business includes title insurance and closing/settlement services the company provides to its homebuyers. The company operates an insurance broker, Meritage Homes Insurance Agency (Meritage Insurance). Meritage Insurance works in collaboration with insurance companies to provide homeowners insurance and other various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where the company builds homes.

MKS Instruments Inc.

MKS Instruments is a provider of instruments, subsystems and process control solutions. The company has two segments: Vacuum & Analysis, which provides instruments, components, subsystems and software which are derived from its knowledge in pressure measurement and control, flow measurement and control, gas and vapor delivery, gas composition analysis, residual gas analysis, leak detection, control and information technology, ozone generation and delivery, radio frequency and data communication power, reactive gas generation and vacuum technology; and Light & Motion, which provides instruments, components and subsystems which are derived from its knowledge in lasers, photonics and optics.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Skyline Champion Corporation

Skyline Champion is a producer of factory-built housing in the United States and Canada. The company serves as a solution provider across complementary and vertically integrated businesses including manufactured construction, company-owned retail locations, and transportation logistics services. The company produces a range of manufactured and modular homes under a variety of brand names and in a variety of floor plans and price ranges. While most of the homes the company builds are single-family, multi-section, ranch-style homes, it also builds two-story, single-section, and Cape Cod style homes as well as multi-family units such as town homes, apartments, duplexes, and triplexes.

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.

SunPower Corporation

SunPower is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy company that delivers solar solutions to residential, commercial, and power plant customers worldwide. The company has two segments: SunPower Energy Services, which refers to sales of solar energy solutions in the North America including direct sales of turn-key engineering, procurement and construction services, and sales to resellers, among other; and SunPower Technologies, which refers to its technology development, worldwide solar panel manufacturing operations, equipment supply to resellers, commercial and residential end-customers outside of North America, and worldwide power plant project development and project sales.

Sunrun Inc.

Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company's main solar service offerings are provided through its lease and power purchase agreements, which it refers to as its Customer Agreements. While homeowners have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from the company, a majority of its customers choose to buy solar as a service through its Customer Agreements. With its solar service offerings, the company installs solar energy systems on its customers' homes and provides them the solar power produced by those systems. In addition, the company monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Taylor Morrison Home is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a residential homebuilding business and is a developer of lifestyle communities. The company provides a variety of homes across a range of price points. The company operates under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brand names. The company also provides financial services to customers through its mortgage subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Home Funding, LLC, title insurance and closing settlement services through its title company, Inspired Title Services, LLC, and homeowner's insurance policies through its insurance agency, Taylor Morrison Insurance Services, LLC. The company's segments are: East, Central, West and Financial Services.

Teradyne Inc.

Teradyne is a global supplier of automation equipment for test and industrial applications. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells automatic test systems used to test semiconductors, wireless products, data storage and electronics systems in the consumer electronics, wireless, automotive, industrial, computing, communications, and aerospace and defense industries. The company's automatic test equipment and industrial automation products and services include: semiconductor test systems; defense/aerospace test instrumentation and systems, storage test systems, and circuit-board test and inspection systems; industrial automation products; and wireless test systems.

Toll Brothers Inc.

Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for residential single-family detached, attached home, master planned resort-style golf, and urban communities. The company also designs, builds, markets, and sells urban condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living?. The company operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, golf course development, and landscaping subsidiaries. The company also operates its own security company, TBI Smart Home Solutions, which provides homeowners with home automation and technology options. In addition, the company operates its own lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations.

Tri Pointe Homes Inc.

TRI Pointe Group is engaged in the design, construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes through its portfolio of six brands across 10 states, including Maracay in Arizona, Pardee Homes in California and Nevada, Quadrant Homes in Washington, Trendmaker Homes in Texas, TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado and the Carolinas and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. The company has two businesses: homebuilding, in which the company acquires and develops land and constructs and sells single-family detached and attached homes; and financial services, which consists of mortgage financing, title and escrow services, and property and casualty insurance agency operations.

Vivint Solar

Vivint Solar is engaged in providing distributed solar energy, which is electricity generated by a solar energy system installed at or near customers' locations, to residential customers through a direct-to-home sales model. The company's product offering include: Power Purchase Agreements, in which the company charges customers a fee per kilowatt hour based on the electricity production of the solar energy system, which is billed monthly; Legal-form Leases, in which the company charges customers a fixed monthly payment to lease the solar energy system; and Solar Energy System Sales, in which the company provides its customers the option to purchase solar energy systems for cash or through third-party financing.

William Lyon Homes Class A

Lyon (William) Homes is a regional homebuilder. The company is primarily engaged in the design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family detached and attached homes in California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Texas. The company's primary markets include Orange County, Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, the San Francisco Bay Area, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, Seattle, Portland, Austin and San Antonio. The company builds and sells across a range of product lines at a variety of price points with sales to entry-level, first-time move-up and second-time move-up homebuyers, as well as a luxury brand and an active adult target segment.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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