Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.41 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Mixed Signals Continue

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish, with the 50-day moving average serving to prevent more severe selloffs on seven occasions since February. The 50-day MA remains major support at 4289; as long as the 50-day MA holds, we expect to see rallies to 4480 followed by 4600. Should the 50-day MA (4289) fail to hold we expect more sideways to downward price action, as it would likely kickstart a 5-15% pullback, wherein our next support levels to watch would be 4257, 4233, 4164, and 4140... see page 3.
High Yield Spreads; 10-Yr Treasury Yield. There continues to be an extensive list of concerning market dynamics, with some getting worse in the past week. This includes high yield spreads which continue to display signs of a new widening trend, and the 10-year Treasury yield which is back near 6-month lows. Both of these trends are clear risk-off signals and a big reason why we are near-term cautious on the broad market... see chart below and page 3.
Not Much Breaking Down. The list of areas of the market that are breaking below critical long-term support is relatively small, but does include Emerging Markets (EEM) and Regional Banks (KRE). If the EEM remains below $52 and the KRE remains below $64 it is likely to weigh on the broad market. Alternatively, the ability for the EEM and KRE to reclaim these levels (i.e., false breakdowns) would be very bullish patterns. Outside of these areas, not even the weakest Sectors (Energy, Transportation) are breaking down. Additionally, the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $208 support, the S&P 500 is above its 50-day MA, the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) is above $109, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is above $146; as long as these support levels hold, we cannot be negative on the overall market... see pages 4-5.
Underlyings
Ares Management Corporation

Ares Management is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an alternative asset manager. The company provides its investors a range of investment strategies. The company's three complementary investment groups are: the Credit Group, which provides solutions for investors seeking to access a range of credit assets, including syndicated loans, bonds, alternative credit products and direct lending markets; the Private Equity Group, which categorizes its investment activities into four strategies consisting of Corporate Private Equity, Infrastructure and Power, Special Opportunities and Energy Opportunities; and the Real Estate Group, which manages equity and debt strategies.

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Asbury Automotive Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an automotive retailer. The company's stores provide automotive products and services, including new and used vehicles; parts and service, including vehicle repair and maintenance services, replacement parts and collision repair services; and finance and insurance products, including arranging vehicle financing through third parties and aftermarket products, such as extended service contracts, guaranteed asset protection debt cancellation, prepaid maintenance, and credit life and disability insurance. The company's new vehicle franchise retail network is made up of dealerships operating under locally-branded dealership groups.

ASE Technology Holding

AutoNation Inc.

AutoNation, through its subsidiaries, is an automotive retailer. The company provides a range of automotive products and services, including new vehicles, used vehicles, parts and service, which includes automotive repair and maintenance services as well as wholesale parts and collision businesses, and automotive finance and insurance products, which include vehicle service and other protection products, and the arranging of financing for vehicle purchases through third-party finance sources. The company owns and operates new vehicle franchises from stores located in the United States, in main metropolitan markets in the Sunbelt region. The company has three segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury.

BLACKROCK INC.

BlackRock is an investment management firm. The company provides a range of investment and technology services to institutional and retail clients worldwide. Products are provided directly and through intermediaries in a variety of vehicles, including open-end and closed-end mutual funds, iShares? exchange-traded funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts and other pooled investment vehicles. The company also provides technology services, including the investment and risk management technology platform, Aladdin?, Aladdin Wealth, eFront, Cachematrix and FutureAdvisor, as well as advisory services and solutions to a base of institutional and wealth management clients.

Blackstone Group Inc.

Blackstone Group, together with its subsidiaries, is a global manager of private capital. The alternative asset management business includes the management of private equity funds, real estate funds, real estate investment trusts, funds of hedge funds, hedge funds, credit-focused funds, collateralized loan obligation vehicles, separately managed accounts and registered investment companies (collectively referred to as the Blackstone Funds). The company's business is organized into four segments: Real Estate, Private Equity, Hedge Fund Solutions and Credit.

BrightSphere Investment Group Inc.

BrightSphere Investment Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a global asset management business with interests in a group of boutique investment management firms (Affiliates). The company provides investment management services globally to predominantly institutional investors, in asset classes that include U.S. and global equities, fixed income, real estate, timber and secondary Affiliates' sponsored investment entities. The company's affiliates includes: Acadian Asset Management LLC; Barrow, Hanley, Mewhinney & Strauss, LLC; Campbell Global, LLC; Copper Rock Capital Partners LLC; Investment Counselors of Maryland, LLC; Landmark Partners, LLC; and Thompson, Siegel & Walmsley LLC.

Carlyle Group Inc

Carlyle Group is an asset management firm. The company's Corporate Private Equity segment advises its buyout and middle market and growth capital funds. The company's Real Assets segment advises its active carry funds focused on real estate, energy and infrastructure. The company's Global Credit segment advises a group of funds that pursue investment strategies that span the credit spectrum of liquid credit, illiquid credit, and real assets credit. The company's Investment Solutions segment provides investment opportunities and resources for its investors and clients to build private equity and real estate portfolios through fund of funds, secondary purchases of existing portfolios and managed co-investment programs.

CarMax Inc.

CarMax is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged as a retailer of used vehicles. The company operates in two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers; and CarMax Auto Finance, which consists of finance operation that provides vehicle financing to customer buying retail vehicles from the company The company's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans, reconditioning and service, and customer credit.

Carmit Candy Industries Ltd.

Carmit Candy Industries Ltd. is an Israel-based confectionary manufacturer. The Company distributes its products in the local market and exports worldwide, both under its own brand and under private labels. Carmit Candy Industries Ltd. also exclusively distributes the Cadbury's products in Israel. The Company's products are all kosher and include marshmallows, lollypops, toffees, chocolate, sticker coins, bars, sugar-free chips and wafers, as well as dairy-free and gluten-free, dietetic, and organic confectionary. Carmit Candy Industries Ltd. manufactures its products in Rishon Lezion and in Gush Segev, Israel.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.

Group 1 Automotive is an operator in the automotive retail industry. Through its dealerships, the company sells new and used cars and light trucks, arranges related vehicle financing, sells service and insurance contracts, provides automotive maintenance and repair services, and sells vehicle parts. The company sells retail used vehicles directly to its customers at its dealerships or via its internet sites and wholesale used vehicles at auctions. The company sells replacement parts and provides both warranty and non-warranty maintenance and repair services, as well as provides collision repair services at the collision centers that the company operates. The company also sells parts to wholesale customers.

Lithia Motors Inc. Class A

Lithia Motors is a providers of personal transportation solutions. The company's segments are Domestic, Import and Luxury. The company's Domestic segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured by Chrysler, General Motors and Ford. The company's Import segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by Honda, Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Volkswagen. The company's Luxury segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles manufactured primarily by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus. The franchises in each segment also sell used vehicles, parts and automotive services, and automotive finance and insurance products.

Manning & Napier

Manning & Napier is an independent investment management firm that provides its clients with a range of financial solutions and investment strategies. The company serves a client base of individuals and institutions, including 401(k) plans, pension plans, Taft-Hartley plans, endowments and foundations. The company provides equity, fixed income and a range of blended asset portfolios by employing various approaches. The company's investment management offerings include distinct separate account composites and mutual funds and collective investment trusts.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd.

Marvell Technology Group is a semiconductor provider of application-specific products. The company is focused on the development of System-on-a-Chip devices, utilizing its technology portfolio of intellectual property in the areas of analog, mixed-signal, digital signal processing, and embedded and standalone integrated circuits. The company develops integrated hardware platforms along with software that incorporates digital computing technologies. In storage, the company is engaged in fibre channel products and data storage controller solutions spanning cloud, enterprise, edge and personal computing markets. The company's networking products include ethernet solutions, embedded processors and WiFi connectivity solutions.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc.

Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless semiconductor company. The company designs, develops and markets power solutions for systems found in consumer, computing and storage, automotive, industrial, communications and consumer applications. The company's primary product families include the following: Direct Current (DC) to DC products, which are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems such as portable electronic devices, wireless Local Area Network access points, computers, and monitors, automobiles and medical equipment; and Lighting Control Products, which include lighting control integrated circuits that are used in backlighting and general illumination products.

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON Semiconductor is engaged in energy efficient electronics. The company is organized into three segments: Power Solutions Group, which provides a range of discrete, module and integrated semiconductor products; Analog Solutions Group, which designs and develops analog, mixed-signal, and advanced logic application specific integrated circuits and Application Specific Standard Product, and power solutions; and Image Sensor Group, which designs and develops complementary metal oxide semiconductor and charge-coupled device image sensors, as well as proximity sensors, image signal processors and actuator drivers for autofocus and image stabilization for automotive and industrial markets, among others.

PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

Penske Automotive Group is a transportation services company that operates automotive and commercial truck dealerships and distributes commercial vehicles, diesel engines, gas engines, power systems and related parts and services. The company has four segments: Retail Automotive, consisting of its retail automotive dealership operations; Retail Commercial Truck, consisting of its retail commercial truck dealership operations in the United States and Canada; Other, consisting of its commercial vehicle and power systems distribution operations and other non-automotive consolidated operations; and Non-Automotive Investments, consisting of its equity method investments in non-automotive operations.

Skyworks Solutions Inc.

Skyworks Solutions is a provider of analog semiconductors that connect people, places, and things, spanning a number of applications within the aerospace, automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. The company's product portfolio consists of various solutions, including: amplifiers, antenna tuners, attenuators, circulators/isolators, wireless analog system on chip, direct current (DC)/DC converters, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, diversity receive modules, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, light emitting diode drivers, low noise amplifiers, mixers, and modulators.

Sonic Automotive Inc. Class A

Sonic Automotive is an automotive retailer in the United States. The company has two reportable segments: the Franchised Dealerships Segment and the EchoPark Segment. The Franchised Dealerships segment is comprised of retail automotive franchises that sell new vehicles and buy and sell used vehicles, sell replacement parts, perform vehicle maintenance, warranty and repair services, and arrange finance and insurance products. The EchoPark segment is comprised of pre-owned vehicle retail locations that provide customers an opportunity to search the company's nationwide inventory, purchase a pre-owned vehicle, select finance and insurance products and sell their vehicle to the company

Stabilus SA

Stabilus SA, formerly Servus HoldCo SARL is a Luxembourg-based company. The Company is the automotive and industrial supplier. It develops and produces electromechanical drives, gas springs and dampers. Its products in the automotive segment are used in a broad range of applications such as tailgates, hoods, doors and convertible tops. In addition, Stabilus SA supplies industrial customers, for example in medical and rehab technology (operating tables, hospital beds, wheelchairs), transportation and traffic (flaps and lids for luggage, loading and maintenance), furniture (cabinet lids, beds, tables) and house and building technology (skylights, smoke exhaust vents, awnings).

T. Rowe Price Group

T. Rowe Price Group is a financial services holding company that provides global investment management services. The company provide a range of United States mutual funds, subadvised funds, separately managed accounts, and other T. Rowe Price products. The company also provides certain investment advisory clients with related administrative services, including distribution, mutual fund transfer agent, accounting, and shareholder services; participant recordkeeping and transfer agent services for defined contribution retirement plans; brokerage; and trust services. The company also provide non-discretionary advisory planning services to fund shareholders and potential investors.

Virtus Investment Partners Inc.

Virtus Investment Partners is a provider of investment management and related services to individuals and institutions. The company's retail investment management services are provided to individuals through products consisting of United States 1940 Act mutual funds and Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, exchange traded funds, closed-end funds and retail separate accounts. Institutional investment management services are provided through separate accounts and pooled or commingled structures to a variety of institutional clients. The company also provides subadvisory services to other investment advisers and serves as the collateral manager for structured products.

Westwood Holdings Group Inc.

Westwood Holdings Group is a holding company. The company manages investment assets and provides services for its clients through its subsidiaries, Westwood Management Corp. and Westwood Advisors, L.L.C. (referred to hereinafter together as Westwood Management), Westwood International Advisors Inc. (Westwood International Advisors) and Westwood Trust. Westwood Management provides investment advisory services include corporate retirement plans, public retirement plans, endowments and foundations. Westwood International Advisors provides investment advisory services to large institutions and pooled investment vehicles, as well as subadvisory services to the NBI Westwood Emerging Markets Fund.

Xilinx Inc.

Xilinx designs and develops programmable devices and associated technologies, including: integrated circuits (ICs) in the form of programmable logic devices (PLDs), including programmable System on Chips and three-dimensional ICs; Adaptive Compute Acceleration Platform, a multi-core heterogeneous compute platform; software design tools to program the PLDs; software development environments and embedded platforms; targeted reference designs; printed circuit boards; and intellectual property (IP), which consists of the company and third-party verification and IP cores. In addition to its programmable platforms, the company provides design services, customer training, field engineering and technical support.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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