Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 234.63 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

It took a couple of days following the Treasury yield breakout for the market to really react, and what we got was a full-blown derailment, as the 6+ month S&P 500 uptrend broke down. With numerous major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today's report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.

• Key levels to monitor on major indexes. Though the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials (DJI), and Nasdaq 100 are all flirting with their respective 200-day moving averages, there has yet to be a decisive breakdown as markets try to find an equilibrium. On the S&P 500 we are monitoring for potential support at 2,690-2,695 and also the recent low of 2,710.50. On the DJI, notable support levels we are watching include 25,000 and the 200-day moving average... see charts below.

• Semiconductors, large-cap Financials (XLF) at critical support. Breakdowns in semis and large-cap Financials would likely have serious negative implications for the broad market... see page 2.

• Big picture trends. The steep ascent for Treasury yields is a major concern for the broad market, and has led to some deterioration in growth's leadership status. With that said, the cyclicals (XLY) vs. staples (XLP) ratio remains above horizontal support. The gold (GLD) vs. stocks (SPX) ratio is inflecting near-term in favor of gold... see pages 3-4.

• Sector Relative Strength Rankings (RSRs) & Weighting Recommendations. Cap-weighted Health Care remains at the top of our rankings, while defensive Utilities and Staples outperformed last week... see page 5.

• In today's report we highlight attractive Groups within Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples... see pages 10-19.
Underlyings
Atmos Energy Corporation

Atmos Energy is engaged in the regulated natural gas distribution and pipeline and storage businesses. The company delivers natural gas through regulated sales and transportation arrangements to residential, commercial, public-authority and industrial customers. The company's segments are: Distribution, which is comprised of its regulated natural gas distribution and related sales operations; and Pipeline and Storage, which consists of the pipeline and storage operations of its Atmos Pipeline-Texas Division (APT) and its natural gas transmission operations in Louisiana. APT has intrastate pipeline operations in Texas with a focus on the natural gas-producing areas of central, northern and eastern Texas.

CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF Industries Holdings is a global fertilizer and chemical company. The company's principal nitrogen fertilizer products are anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution and ammonium nitrate. The company's other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to its industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products, which are solid granular fertilizer products for which the nutrient content is a combination of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. The company serves its customers in North America through its production, storage, transportation and distribution network.

Clorox Company

Clorox is a manufacturer and marketer of consumer products. The company sells its products through mass retailers, grocery outlets, warehouse clubs, dollar stores, home hardware centers, drug, pet and military stores, third-party and owned e-commerce channels, and distributors. The company has four reportable segments: Cleaning, which consists of laundry, home care and other products; Household, which consists of charcoal, bags, wraps and containers, cat litter, and digestive health products; Lifestyle, which consists of food products, water-filtration systems and filters, natural personal care products, and dietary supplements; and International, which consists of products sold outside the United States.

CVR Partners LP

CVR Partners owns, operates, and grows its nitrogen fertilizer business. The company produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products, which are used by farmers to improve the yield and quality of their crops. The company's main products are ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), an aqueous solution of urea and ammonium nitrate used as a fertilizer. The company's products are sold on a wholesale basis. The company produces nitrogen fertilizer products at two manufacturing facilities, which are located in Coffeyville, KS and East Dubuque, IL. The company primarily markets UAN products to agricultural customers and ammonia products to agricultural and industrial customers.

Duke Energy Corporation

Duke Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company operates as an energy company. The company's segments include: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, which provides retail electric service through the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity to customers within the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States; Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, which conducts natural gas operations, as well as owns, operates and has investments in various pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities; and Commercial Renewables, which acquires, develops, builds, operates and owns wind and solar renewable generation throughout the continental United States.

Energen Corporation

Energen is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company engaged in the exploration, development and production of oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas. The company's operations are conducted through its subsidiary, Energen Resources Corporation and primarily occur within the Midland Basin, the Delaware Basin and the Central Basin Platform areas of the Permian Basin in west Texas and New Mexico. The company's operations focus on increasing production and adding proved reserves through the development of oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas properties. In addition, the company explores for and develops new reservoirs, primarily in areas in which it has an operating presence.

Entergy Corporation

Entergy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an integrated energy company engaged mainly in electric power production and retail distribution operations. The company owns and operates power plants. The company has two segments: Utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric power to retail and wholesale customers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas; and Entergy Wholesale Commodities, which includes the ownership, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power plants, located in the northern United States, the sale of the electric power produced by its operating plants to wholesale customers, and also provides services to other nuclear power plant owners.

ICL-Israel Chemicals Ltd.

Mosaic Company

Mosaic is a producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. The company is organized into three reportable business segments: Phosphates, which owns and operates mines and production facilities in Florida that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients, and processing plants in Louisiana that produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients; Potash, which mines and processes potash in Canada and the United States and sells potash in North America and internationally; and Mosaic Fertilizantes, which produces and sells concentrated phosphates crop nutrients, phosphate-based animal feed ingredients and potash fertilizer.

OGE Energy Corp.

OGE Energy is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is an energy and energy services provider providing physical delivery and related services for both electricity and natural gas primarily in the south central United States Co. conducts these activities through two business segments: electric utility, which generates, transmits, distributes and sells electric energy in Oklahoma and western Arkansas; and natural gas midstream operations, which consist of the company's investment in Enable Midstream Partners, LP, which is primarily engaged in the business of gathering, processing, transporting and storing natural gas.

Procter & Gamble Company

Procter & Gamble provides consumer packaged goods. The company's products are sold primarily through mass merchandisers, e-commerce, grocery stores, membership club stores, drug stores, department stores, distributors, wholesalers, baby stores, beauty stores, other stores and pharmacies. The company has five reportable segments: Beauty, which includes hair care, and skin and personal care products; Grooming, which includes shave care products; Health Care, which includes oral care and personal health care products; Fabric and Home Care, which includes fabric care and home care products; and Baby, Feminine and Family Care, which includes baby care, feminine care and family care products.

SCANA Corporation

SCANA is a holding company. Through its regulated subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity in South Carolina and in the purchase, transmission and sale of natural gas in North Carolina and South Carolina. Through its non-regulated subsidiary, the company markets natural gas to retail customers in Georgia and to wholesale customers in the southeast. In addition, the company's subsidiary, SCANA Services, Inc. provides primarily administrative and management services to the company's other subsidiaries.

Vistra Corp.

Vistra Energy operates an integrated retail and generation business in markets throughout the U.S. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in electricity market activities, including electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management and retail sales of electricity. The company has six segments: Retail, ERCOT, PJM, NY/NE (comprising NYISO and ISO-NE), MISO and Asset Closure. The Retail segment is engaged in retail sales of electricity and related services. The ERCOT, PJM, NY/NE and MISO segments are engaged in electricity generation, among others. The Asset Closure segment is engaged in the decommissioning and reclamation of retired plants and mines.

WD-40 Company

WD-40 is engaged in developing and selling products that solve problems in workshops, factories and homes. The company markets its maintenance products and its homecare and cleaning products under the following brands: WD-40?, 3-IN-ONE?, GT85?, X-14?, 2000 Flushes?, Carpet Fresh?, no vac?, Spot Shot?, 1001?, Lava? and Solvol?. The WD-40 brand includes the WD-40 Multi-Use Product and the WD-40 Specialist? and WD-40 BIKE? product lines. The company's brands are sold in various locations. Maintenance products are sold in markets in North, Central and South America, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Homecare and cleaning products are sold in North America, the United Kingdom and Australia.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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