Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 45.95 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Breaking To All-Time Highs

We have said it before and we will say it again; new highs are not a sell signal. This time we are referring to the S&P 500 which is breaking out to all-time highs (above the prior February highs), something we have been able to say about the Nasdaq 100 for over two months. Additionally, breadth remains constructive for small- and large-caps and yesterday's price action appears to be the start of yet another rotation into cyclical value/”reopening” plays. Needless to say, our outlook remains bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher.

· S&P 500. After resting last week below 3400, the S&P 500 is breaking above the February highs and above this important 3393-3400 level -- a level we now view as short-term support followed closely by 3355. Every time there is a breakout attempt like this to all-time highs, one thing we need to watch for is the potential for a failed breakout. Only a break below 3355 support would be reason for caution... see chart below.

· Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Defensive areas of the market including Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) are hitting multi-year RS lows, a bullish sign for the broad market. Additionally, RS for biotech (IBB, XBI) has very likely peaked; another historically bullish sign for the broad market considering it has been a place to hide amid the pandemic. Additionally, yesterday's price action appears to be the start of another rotation into cyclical value/”reopening” plays such as Financials/banks, airliners, and cruises... see pages 2-4.

· Breadth Remains Constructive. Small- and mid-caps continue to outperform relative to large-caps (S&P 500); as long as this continues it is hard to take “bad breadth” arguments seriously. What's more is that advance/decline (A/D) lines and % of stocks above their 200-day MAs on the Russell 2000 & Russell 3000 have been making higher lows since March... see chart below and page 5.
Underlyings
Ballard Power Systems Inc.

Ballard Power Systems is engaged in the design, development, manufacture, sale and service of proton exchange membrane fuel cell products for a variety of applications, focusing on the power product markets of Heavy-Duty Motive (consisting of bus, truck, rail and marine applications), Portable Power, Material Handling and Backup Power, as well as the delivery of Technology Solutions, including engineering services, technology transfer and the license and sale of Co.'s intellectual property portfolio and fundamental knowledge for a variety of fuel cell applications. A fuel cell is an electrochemical device that combines hydrogen fuel with oxygen (from the air) to produce electricity.

Bloom Energy

Bloom Energy designs, manufactures, and sells solid-oxide fuel cell systems, or Energy Servers, for on-site power generation. The company's Energy Servers utilize a fuel cell technology. The company's solution, the Bloom Energy Server, is a stationary power generation platform. The Bloom Energy Server converts standard low-pressure natural gas or biogas into electricity through an electrochemical process without combustion.

Boise Cascade Co.

Boise Cascade is a wood products manufacturer and building materials distributor. The company's line of products is used primarily in new residential construction, residential repair-and-remodeling projects, light commercial construction, and industrial applications. The company has two reportable segments. The company's Wood Products segment manufactures laminated veneer lumber, I-joists, and laminated beams, which are collectively referred to as engineered wood products (EWP). The company's Building Materials Distribution segment sells a line of building materials, including oriented strand board, plywood, lumber, general line items such as siding, composite decking, metal products, insulation, and roofing, and EWP.

Canadian Solar Inc.

Domtar Corporation

Domtar is engaged in designing, manufacturing, marketing and distributing a range of fiber-based products including communication papers, specialty and packaging papers and absorbent hygiene products. Co. is also a marketer and producer of a broad line of incontinence care products as well as infant diapers. Co. operates the following business segments: Pulp and Paper, which consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of communication, specialty and packaging papers, as well as softwood, fluff and hardwood market pulp; and Personal Care, which consists of the design, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of absorbent hygiene products.

Eagle Materials Inc.

Eagle Materials, through its subsidiaries, is a supplier of heavy construction materials, light building materials, and materials used for oil and natural gas extraction in the U.S. The company's products are commodities that are used in commercial and residential construction; public construction projects; projects to build, expand, and repair roads and highways; and in oil and natural gas extraction. The company's business is organized into three sectors: Heavy Materials, which includes the cement and concrete and aggregates segments; Light Materials, which includes the Gypsum wallboard and recycled paperboard segments; and Oil and Gas Proppants, which are used in oil and gas extraction.

Enphase Energy Inc.

Enphase Energy is a global energy technology company. The company designs, develops, manufactures and sells home energy solutions that connect energy generation, energy storage and control and communications management on one platform. The company's semiconductor-based microinverter converts energy at the individual solar module level and, combines with its proprietary networking and software technologies to provide energy monitoring and control. The Enphase Home Energy Solution with IQ consists of four primary components: Enphase microinverters, the AC Battery?, an Envoy gateway, and Enlighten cloud-based software.

Enviva Partners LP

First Solar Inc.

First Solar is a provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions. The company designs, manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology, and also develops and sells PV solar power systems that mainly use the modules it manufactures. The company also provides operations and maintenance (O&M) services to system owners. The company's modules segment involves the design, manufacture and sale of cadmium telluride solar modules, which convert sunlight into electricity. The company's second segment is its systems segment, through which it provides power plant solutions, which include project development, engineering, procurement, and construction services and O&M services.

International Paper Company

International Paper is a producer of renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp and paper products with manufacturing operations in North America, Latin America, Europe, North Africa, India and Russia. The company's segments are: Industrial Packaging, which manufactures containerboard, such as linerboard, medium, whitetop, recycled linerboard, recycled medium and saturating kraft; Global Cellulose Fibers, which produces fluff pulp for making absorbent hygiene products like baby diapers, feminine care, adult incontinence and other non-woven products; and Printing Papers, which produces printing and writing papers, such as uncoated papers for use in copiers, desktop and laser printers and digital imaging.

James Hardie Industries Plc

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation

Louisiana-Pacific is a provider of building solutions serving the new home construction, repair and remodeling and outdoor structures markets. The company has four segments: siding, which includes LP SmartSide? Strand and Fiber trim and siding, as well as LP Outdoor Building Solutions? products for outdoor buildings; oriented strand board (OSB), which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel products; engineered wood products, which include LP SolidStart? I-Joist, Laminated Veneer Lumber, and other related products; and South America, which manufactures and distributes OSB structural panel and siding products in South America and certain export markets.

OWENS CORNING

Owens Corning is engaged in manufacturing and delivering a range of insulation, roofing, and fiberglass composite materials. The company's Composites segment includes vertically integrated downstream activities. The company manufactures, fabricates and sells glass reinforcements in the form of fiber. The company's Insulation segment includes a portfolio of high, mid and low-temperature products with a geographic mix of United States, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America, a market mix of residential, commercial, industrial and other markets, and a channel mix of retail, contractor and distribution. The company's products in the Roofing segment are laminate and strip asphalt roofing shingles.

Plug Power Inc.

Plug Power is a provider of alternative energy technology focused on the design, development, commercialization and manufacture of hydrogen and fuel cell systems used for the material handling and stationary power markets. The company's products and services include: GenDrive, which is a hydrogen fueled proton exchange membrane fuel cell system providing power to material handling electric vehicles, electric forklifts and ground support equipment; GenFuel, which is a hydrogen fueling delivery, generation, storage and dispensing systems; and ProGen, which is a fuel cell stack and engine technology that used in mobility and stationary fuel cell systems, and as engines in electric delivery vans.

RENESOLA ADS

Sky Solar Holdings ADR

SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells an intelligent inverter solution designed for power generation at the individual photovoltaic module level. The company's products consist mainly of power optimizers designed to maximize energy throughput from each and every module via constant tracking of Maximum Power Point individually per module; inverters, which invert direct current from the PV module to alternating current; a related cloud-based monitoring platform; and a storage solution that is used to increase energy independence and maximize self-consumption for homeowners by utilizing a battery that is sold separately by third party manufacturers, to store and supply power as needed.

Sunrun Inc.

Sunrun is engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems. The company's main solar service offerings are provided through its lease and power purchase agreements, which it refers to as its Customer Agreements. While homeowners have the option to purchase a solar energy system outright from the company, a majority of its customers choose to buy solar as a service through its Customer Agreements. With its solar service offerings, the company installs solar energy systems on its customers' homes and provides them the solar power produced by those systems. In addition, the company monitors, maintains and insures the system during the term of the contract.

Vivint Solar

Vivint Solar is engaged in providing distributed solar energy, which is electricity generated by a solar energy system installed at or near customers' locations, to residential customers through a direct-to-home sales model. The company's product offering include: Power Purchase Agreements, in which the company charges customers a fee per kilowatt hour based on the electricity production of the solar energy system, which is billed monthly; Legal-form Leases, in which the company charges customers a fixed monthly payment to lease the solar energy system; and Solar Energy System Sales, in which the company provides its customers the option to purchase solar energy systems for cash or through third-party financing.

Weyerhaeuser Company

Weyerhaeuser is a real estate investment trust. The company's business segments are: Timberlands, which provides delivered logs (grade logs and fiber logs), timber, recreational leases and other products; Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (ENR), in which Real Estate sells timberland tracts for recreational, conservation, commercial or residential purposes, whereas ENR sells rights to explore, extract and sell construction aggregates (rock, sand and gravel), industrial materials and oil and natural gas; and Wood Products, which provides structural lumber, oriented strand board, wood products, other products, and complementary building products.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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