Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Stick With Energy and FinancialsIndexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
S&P 500. The S&P 500 held above short-term support at the 200-day MA (currently 4446); as long as this level holds we view it as a bullish sign for the SPX and broad market, as it would mean the January breakdown below the 200-day MA was a false breakdown. If the 200-day MA fails to hold, 4257 will be the next key level to watch, and we cannot be bearish if above 4257. Below 4257 could see another 8-10% downside. As for resistance, we are watching 4540-4555 followed by 4620-4630... see chart below. It is worth noting that we did not get a second consecutive 80% upside volume day this past Tuesday, leaving the possibility open for a potential retest of the 4222 low, or potentially new lows.
Mixed Indexes. Small-caps could be seen as neutral or bearish depending on which index you are looking at; the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains below $208 resistance while the S&P 600 (IJR) remains above $102.50 support. The same can be said of two different Nasdaq indexes; the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) remains below $109 resistance, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remains above $334 support. The moral of the story: be very selective... see pages 3-4.
Cyclical Value vs. Defensives. The ratio of cyclical value Sectors (Energy, Financials, Materials, Industrials) relative to defensive Sectors (Staples, Utilities, Health Care, REITs) has been moving sideways for nearly a year, but is testing resistance and is on the cusp of a breakout in favor of cyclical value. This is not something we would expect to see if the stock market was in serious trouble... see page 5.
Big Picture Trends. Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil. The US dollar shows some early topping signals. Bitcoin is breaking back above the key 39,500-40,900 level. High yield spreads are holding below the Dec. 2021 high of 375 bps for now... see pages 5-6.
Bank of Montreal is a financial services organization. Co. provides a range of retail banking, wealth management and investment banking products and services. Co. serves its clients through three operating groups: Personal and Commercial Banking, which provides financial services to personal and commercial customers; Private Client Group, which provides wealth management products and services to individuals and select institutional segments; and BMO Capital Markets, which provides clients financial and capital markets services to corporate, institutional and government clients.
Scotiabank is a financial services provider in North America, Latin America, the Caribbean and Central America, and parts of Asia. Through its three operating segments: Canadian Banking, International Banking, and Global Banking and Markets, Co. provides a range of advice, products and services, including personal and commercial banking, wealth management and private banking, corporate and investment banking, and capital markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$915,273 million and total deposits of C$625,367 million.
Cenovus Energy is in the business of development, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids ("NGLs") in Canada with refining operations in the U.S. Co. operates in two business segments: Upstream, which includes Co.'s development and production of crude oil, NGLs in Canada, is organized into two operations: Oil sands and conventional; and Refining and Marketing, which is focused on the refining of crude oil products into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries located in the U.S. This segment also markets Co.'s crude oil and natural gas, as well as third-party purchases and sales of product.
CNO Financial Group is a holding company for a group of insurance companies. The company's Bankers Life segment underwrites, markets and distributes Medicare supplement insurance, interest-sensitive life insurance, life insurance, fixed annuities and long-term care insurance products. The company's Washington National segment underwrites, markets and distributes supplemental health and life insurance to middle-income consumers at home and at the worksite. The company's Colonial Penn segment markets primarily graded benefit and simplified issue life insurance directly to customers in the senior middle-income market through television advertising, direct mail, the internet and telemarketing.
Deutsche Bank is a holding company acting as an international financial service provider. Co. offers a wide variety of investment, financial and related products and services to private individuals, corporate entities and institutional clients around the world. Co. has operations or dealings with existing or potential customers in most countries in the world. Co. is organized into the following six corporate divisions: Global Markets (GM); Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB); Private, Wealth & Commercial Clients (PW&CC); Deutsche Asset Management (Deutsche AM); Postbank (PB); and Non-core Operations Unit (NCOU).
Royal Bank of Scotland Group is a banking and financial services company. Co.'s activities are organized in franchise basis; Personal and Business Banking (PBB) comprising UK PBB and Ulster Bank RoI segment, which serve individuals and small businesses in the U.K. and the Republic of Ireland; Commercial & Private Banking comprising, Commercial Banking and Private Banking segment, which serve commercial, corporate and private banking in the U.K. and Western Europe; RBS International, which serves retail, commercial and financial institution in Jersey, Luxembourg and London; and NatWest Markets, which provides risk management and financing solutions through its trading and sales operations.
Royal Bank of Canada is a financial services company that provides personal and commercial banking, wealth management services, insurance, investor services and capital markets products and services. Co. serves personal, business, public sector and institutional clients through offices in Canada, the U.S. and 37 other countries. Co. is organized into five segments: Personal and Commercial Banking, which is comprised of Co.'s personal and business banking operations, and its auto financing businesses; Wealth Management, Insurance; Investor and Treasury Services; and Capital Markets. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.21 trillion and total deposits of C$789.64 billion.
Suncor Energy is an energy company. Co.'s operations include oil sands development and upgrading, onshore and offshore oil and gas production, petroleum refining, and product marketing under the Petro-Canada brand. Co.'s segments include: oil sands, which develop and produce synthetic crude oil and related products through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen; exploration and production, which include offshore activity, and the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; and refining and marketing, which include the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution and marketing of these and other purchased products, as well as a lubricants plant.
Toronto Dominion Bank provides financial services. Co.'s segments comprised of: Canadian Retail, which include Canadian personal and commercial banking businesses, Canadian credit cards, TD Auto Finance Canada and Canadian wealth and insurance businesses; US Retail, which includes the US personal and commercial banking businesses, US credit cards, TD Auto Finance US, US wealth business and the Bank's investment its subsidiary, TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation; and Wholesale Banking, which provides a range of capital markets, investment banking, and corporate banking products and services. As of Oct 31 2017, Co. had total assets of C$1.28 trillion and total deposits of C$832.82 billion.
UBS Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiary, UBS, Co. provides financial services including advisory services, underwriting, financing, market making, asset management and brokerage and retail banking. Co.'s operations are organized along five segments: Wealth Management (financial services to high net worth and ultra high net worth individuals as well as private and corporate clients); Wealth Management Americas (advice-based solutions for ultra high net worth, high net worth and core affluent individuals and families); Personal & Corporate Banking (provides financial products and services to private, corporate and institutional clients); Asset Management and Investment Bank.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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