Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Growth Sectors Continue To Improve -- Add ExposureRisk-on signals continue to pile up, which continues to support our constructive outlook. Building off of last week's report, growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications continue to improve and we recommend adding exposure (e.g., Bilibili BILI-US/9626-HK).
Index Overviews. Things remain status quo at the index level. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes remain in uptrends, with the latter two testing uptrend support. The MSCI EM index (EEM-US) continues to build a bullish base as it holds above major support at $52. US and European equities (S&P 500, STOXX 50) remain in uptrends. China's Shanghai Composite is holding above 3500 base support. Hong Kong's Hang Seng appears to be building a bullish base. Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) is consolidating... see page 2.
US Dollar. The US dollar (DXY) has been climbing ever since the recent FOMC meeting, leading to underperformance from non-US equities over this same period. Still, the DXY is approaching logical resistance at the downtrend, and as long as it remains below 93.50 we view it as a constructive sign for global equities... see page 3.
Global Discretionary vs. Staples. The global Discretionary vs. Staples ratio (MSCI ACWI Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples) displays a bullish reversal, a sign of improving risk appetites that is consistent with historical bull markets... see page 3.
Actionable Theme: Growth Sectors Communications & Technology. The global ex-US growth vs. value ratio is bullishly inflecting, meaning now is the time to add to growth Sectors such as Technology and Communications... see pages 4 and 6-9.
Actionable Theme: Energy & Industrials. Despite the recent appetite for growth Sectors, both Energy and Industrials (generally value Sectors) remain leadership and display actionable pullbacks -- remain overweight/add exposure. Industrials are particularly attractive within Europe and China... see pages 5 and 10-16.
BCE is a telecommunications and media company providing wireless, wireline, Internet and television (TV) services to residential, business and wholesale customers in Canada. As of Dec 31 2017, Co. operated three segments: Bell Wireless, which provides wireless voice and data communications products and services; Bell Wireline, which provides data, Satellite TV service and connectivity, and includes Co.'s wholesale business, which buys and sells local telephone, long distance, data and other services from or to resellers and other carriers; and Bell Media, which provides conventional, specialty and pay TV, digital media and radio broadcasting services and out of home advertising services.
BT is a communications services company, delivering products and services with industry-specific communications solutions and consulting expertise. Co.'s principal activities include: networked IT services; local, national and international telecommunications services; broadband and internet products and services; and converged fixed/mobile products and services. Co. operates five lines of businesses: BT Global Services, BT Business, BT Consumer, BT Wholesale and Openreach, providing services to around 6,500 large corporate and public sector customers, in more than 170 countries worldwide.
Cellnex Telecom SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the wireless telecommunications (telecom) business. Its activities are divided into three segments: Broadcasting infrastructure, Telecom site rental, as well as Network services and other. The Broadcasting infrastructure division comprises distribution and transmission of television (TV) and frequency modulation (FM) radio signals, operation and maintenance (O&M) of radio broadcasting network, as well as over-the-top (OTT) radio services, among others. The Telecom site rental division provides access to wireless infrastructure, primarily through infrastructure hosting and telecom equipment co-location, mainly for mobile network operators and other wireless and broadband telecom network operators. The Network services and other division offers connectivity services for a variety of telecom operators and radio communication, among others. The Company also develops 5th generation mobile networks (5G) through Alticom BV.
CyberAgent is an information technology company. Media segment is engaged in the operation of internet TV station "AbemaTV," free live streaming programs without subscription "FRESH!," blog service "Ameba," matching services "Tapple" and music streaming service "AWA." Game segment offers a variety of games for smartphones such as "GRANBLUE FANTASY." Internet Advertisement segment is engaged in the provision of internet advertising agency services. Investment Development is engaged in the corporate venture capital business, as well as the establishment and operation of investment fund. Others segment is engaged in the operation of smartphone media.
DeNA is engaged in the developing and operation of a wide range of mobile and online services including e-commerce, games and entertainment contents distribution. Co. operates in four business segments. Gaming business is engaged in the developing, operating and marketing mobile games. Co.'s principal "Mobage" social game platform in Japan hosts a wide range of free-to-play mobile games. E-commerce business is engaged in the e-commerce related services including "DeNa SHOPPING." Sports business owns and operates a professional baseball team "Yokohama DeNA BayStars" and operates Yokohama stadium. New business/others business is engaged in the operation of curation platform.
Naver is engaged in the Internet industry. Co. operates the search portal, Naver (www.naver.com) the online game portal, Hangame (www.hangame.com) the children's portal, Jr.Naver (jr.naver.com) and its first online donation portal, Happybean (happybean.naver.com). Co. along with its search portal, Naver, is engaged in the provision of Internet services to users, advertisers, publishers, and developers. Co. provides its owned and operated online properties and services to Internet users.
NHN Corporation, formerly NHN Entertainment Corporation, is a company principally engaged in the development and distribution of games. Through the operation of online game portal www.hangame.com, the Company develops and provides massive multiplayer online role playing games (MMORPGs), web boards, sports, and casual games. It also provides mobile games, including Line Disney Tsum Tsum, Line Pop 2, Youkai Watch Puni Puni, Crusaders Quest, Friends Pop and others. Additionally, the Company provides convenience payment services and webtoon services through developed applications, Payco and Comico.
Rogers Communications is a holding company operating as a communications and media company. Co. has four segments: Wireless, which provides wireless telecommunications operations; Cable, which provides cable telecommunications, including internet, television, and telephony services; Business Solutions, which provides network connectivity through its fibre network and data centre assets to support voice, data, networking, hosting, and cloud-based services for businesses, governments, and other telecommunications providers; and Media, which consist of media properties, including television and radio broadcasting, shopping, publishing, sports media and entertainment, and digital media.
Thomson Reuters provides source of news and information. Co. operates three business: Financial & Risk, a provider of news, information and analytics, enabling transactions and connecting communities of trading, investment, financial and corporate professionals, as well as a provider of regulatory and operational risk management solutions; Legal, a provider of online and print information, decision tools, software and services that support legal, investigation, business and government professionals; and Tax & Accounting, a provider of integrated tax compliance and accounting information, software and services for professionals in accounting firms, corporations, law firms and government.
Wolters Kluwer operates through four divisions: Health is a global provider of information for medical and health professionals; Financial & Compliance Services is a U.S. provider risk management, compliance, finance, and audit professionals the services they need to optimize risk and business performance, and ensure compliance with local, regional, and global regulation; Tax & Accounting is a provider of tax, accounting, and audit information, and services; and Legal & Regulatory provides customers with expert content, software, and services in the areas of law, business, and regulatory compliance in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific.
Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.
Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.
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