Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 46.72 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care, and gold miners) as the S&P 500 tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend that was broken last week... see chart below. Moreover, as we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is testing 1-year resistance at 34,280, the Nasdaq Composite is testing key resistance at 12,300, the U.S. dollar (DXY) appears to be moving higher after testing $101-101.50 support, the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are on the cusp of breakouts above 3.63% and 3.82%, respectively, and breadth remains weak. While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Downside targets on the S&P 500 continue to be at the December 2022 lows (3765) and/or the 2022 lows (3490).

DJIA, Nasdaq Composite. It is not just the S&P 500 that is testing important resistance, but also the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite, as referenced above. Needless to say, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives... see page 3.
10- and 30-Year Treasury Yields; U.S. Dollar (DXY). The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are back to test short-term resistance at 3.63% and 3.82%, respectively. A break above these levels would likely come alongside a pullback for the equity market indexes, while a move lower in yields would likely mean more short-term upside for equities. The DXY appears to be moving higher after holding above support at $101-101.50 for almost a month; continued strength in the DXY would be consistent with a pullback in the broad equity indexes... see page 4.
Technology, Financials, Semiconductors, Banks. Cap-weighted Technology (XLK) is testing 1-year resistance at $152, while Financials (XLF) test short-term resistance at $33.50-$34. Important bellwethers within these Sectors, including semiconductors (SOXX, XSD) and banks (KRE, KBE), are starting to break key supports (particularly the smaller-caps), providing more reason to get defensive... see pages 5-6.
Underlyings
Beazer Homes USA Inc.

Beazer Homes USA is engaged as a homebuilder. The company's homebuilding operations consist of the design, sale, and construction of single-family and multi-family homes. The company purchases land or obtains an option to purchase land, which, in either case, requires certain site improvements prior to home construction. When available in certain markets, the company also buys finished lots that are ready for home construction. The company has investments with land developers, other homebuilders and financial partners to acquire land positions, to manage its risk profile and to utilize its capital base. The company also acts as the general contractor for the construction of its new home communities.

Cavco Industries Inc.

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes distributed through a network of independent and the company-owned retailers, planned community operators and residential developers, marketed under a variety of brand names including Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Fairmont, Friendship, Chariot Eagle and Lexington. The company is also a producer of park model RVs, vacation cabins and systems-built commercial structures, as well as modular homes built under the Nationwide Homes brand. Each home contains a living room, dining area, kitchen, one to five bedrooms and one or more bathrooms, is equipped with central heat and hot water systems, kitchen appliances, floor coverings and window treatments.

Century Communities Inc.

Century Communities is engaged in the development, design, construction, marketing and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. The company builds and sells homes under its Century Communities and Wade Jurney Homes brands. The company's Century Communities brand targets a range of buyer profiles including: first time, first and second time move up, and lifestyle homebuyers, and provides its homebuyers with the ability to personalize their homes through certain option and upgrade selections. The company's Wade Jurney Homes brand targets first time homebuyers, primarily sells homes through retail studios and over the internet and provides no option or upgrade selections.

D.R. Horton Inc.

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding company. The company's business operations consist of homebuilding, a majority-owned residential lot development company, financial services and other activities. The company's financial services operations provide mortgage financing and title agency services to homebuyers in its homebuilding markets. The company's subsidiary, DHI Mortgage, provides mortgage financing services primarily to its homebuyers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. The company's subsidiary title companies serve as title insurance agents by providing title insurance policies, examination and closing services, primarily to its homebuyers.

Green Brick Partners

Green Brick Partners is a homebuilding and land development company. The company acquires and develops land, provides land and construction financing to its controlled builders and participates in the profits of its builders. The company is engaged in homebuilding process, including land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing and sales and the creation of brand images at its residential neighborhoods and communities. The company sells finished lots to its controlled builders or option lots from third-party developers for its controlled builders' homebuilding operations and provides them with construction financing and strategic planning.

International Game Technology PLC

KB Home

KB Home is a homebuilding company. The company builds a variety of homes designed primarily for first-time and first move-up, as well as second move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes and condominiums. The company's financial services operations provide various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where it builds homes and provide title services in certain of those markets. The company's financial services operations also provide mortgage banking services, including residential consumer mortgage loan originations, to its homebuyers indirectly through KBHS Home Loans, LLC, a joint venture the company formed with Stearns Lending, LLC.

Las Vegas Sands Corp.

Las Vegas Sands is a developer of destination properties (Integrated Resorts) that feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, restaurants and other amenities. The company owns and operates Integrated Resorts in Asia and the United States. Through its ownership of Sands China Ltd., the company owns and operates properties including The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, Sands Cotai Central, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao. In Singapore, the company owns and operates the Marina Bay Sands. The company's Las Vegas Operating Properties includes The Venetian Resort Las Vegas and the Sands Expo Center.

Lennar Corp. Cl B

Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar is a homebuilder in the United States, an originator of residential and commercial mortgage loans, a provider of title insurance and closing services and a developer of multifamily rental properties. The company's homebuilding operations include the construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes as well as the purchase, development and sale of residential land directly and through unconsolidated entities in which it has investments. The company operates under the Lennar brand name. The company creates and participates in joint ventures that acquire and develop land for its homebuilding operations, for sale to third parties or for use in the ventures' own homebuilding operations.

LGI Homes Inc.

LGI Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington, Tennessee, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Alabama, California, Oregon, and Nevada. The company's product offerings include entry-level homes, including both detached homes and townhomes, and move-up homes sold, which are sold under its LGI Homes brand, and its luxury series homes, which are sold under its Terrata Homes brand. The company's homebuilding operations are organized and managed by seven divisions: West, Northwest, Central, Midwest, Florida, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

M.D.C. Holdings Inc.

M.D.C. Holdings is engaged in the homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations consist of its subsidiaries that purchase finished or develop lots to the extent necessary for the construction and sale primarily of single-family detached homes to first-time and first-time move-up homebuyers. The company's financial services operations include: HomeAmerican Mortgage Corporation, which originates mortgage loans for its homebuyers; American Home Insurance Agency, Inc., which provides third-party insurance products to its homebuyers; and American Home Title and Escrow Company, which provides title agency services to its homebuilding subsidiaries and its customers in certain states.

M/I Homes Inc.

M/I Homes is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family residential homes. The company designs, sells and builds single-family homes on developed lots, which it develops or purchases ready for home construction. The company also purchases undeveloped land to develop into developed lots for future construction of single-family homes and, on a limited basis, for sale to others. The company has two operations: homebuilding and financial services. The company's homebuilding operations have two reporting segments: the Northern and Southern regions. The company's financial services operations support its homebuilding operations by providing mortgage loans and title services to the customers of its homebuilding operations.

Maple Gold Mines Ltd.

Meritage Homes Corporation

Meritage Homes is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in designing and building single-family homes. The company provides homes that are designed with a focus on first-time and first move-up buyers. The company also operates a title company, Carefree Title Agency, Inc. (Carefree Title). Carefree Title's core business includes title insurance and closing/settlement services the company provides to its homebuyers. The company operates an insurance broker, Meritage Homes Insurance Agency (Meritage Insurance). Meritage Insurance works in collaboration with insurance companies to provide homeowners insurance and other various insurance products to its homebuyers in the markets where the company builds homes.

NVR Inc.

NVR is engaged in the construction and sale of single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings, all of which are constructed on a pre-sold basis. The company conducts its homebuilding activities directly. The company's homebuilding operations construct and sell single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominium buildings under three trade names: Ryan Homes, which is marketed primarily to first-time and first-time move-up buyers; and NVHomes and Heartland Homes, which are marketed primarily to move-up and luxury buyers. The company's mortgage banking operations also include separate subsidiaries that broker title insurance and perform title searches in connection with mortgage loan closings.

PulteGroup Inc.

PulteGroup through its subsidiaries is engaged in the homebuilding business. The company also has mortgage banking operations, conducted principally through its susidiary, Pulte Mortgage LLC, and title and insurance brokerage operations. The company's homebuilding business includes the acquisition and development of land primarily for residential purposes within the United States. The company provides a variety of home designs, including single-family detached, townhouses, condominiums, and duplexes at different prices and with varying levels of options and amenities to its customer groups: first-time, move-up, and active adult.

Skyline Champion Corporation

Skyline Champion is a producer of factory-built housing in the United States and Canada. The company serves as a solution provider across complementary and vertically integrated businesses including manufactured construction, company-owned retail locations, and transportation logistics services. The company produces a range of manufactured and modular homes under a variety of brand names and in a variety of floor plans and price ranges. While most of the homes the company builds are single-family, multi-section, ranch-style homes, it also builds two-story, single-section, and Cape Cod style homes as well as multi-family units such as town homes, apartments, duplexes, and triplexes.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation

Taylor Morrison Home is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a residential homebuilding business and is a developer of lifestyle communities. The company provides a variety of homes across a range of price points. The company operates under the Taylor Morrison and Darling Homes brand names. The company also provides financial services to customers through its mortgage subsidiary, Taylor Morrison Home Funding, LLC, title insurance and closing settlement services through its title company, Inspired Title Services, LLC, and homeowner's insurance policies through its insurance agency, Taylor Morrison Insurance Services, LLC. The company's segments are: East, Central, West and Financial Services.

Toll Brothers Inc.

Toll Brothers designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges financing for residential single-family detached, attached home, master planned resort-style golf, and urban communities. The company also designs, builds, markets, and sells urban condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living?. The company operates its own architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, golf course development, and landscaping subsidiaries. The company also operates its own security company, TBI Smart Home Solutions, which provides homeowners with home automation and technology options. In addition, the company operates its own lumber distribution, house component assembly, and manufacturing operations.

Tri Pointe Homes Inc.

TRI Pointe Group is engaged in the design, construction and sale of single-family attached and detached homes through its portfolio of six brands across 10 states, including Maracay in Arizona, Pardee Homes in California and Nevada, Quadrant Homes in Washington, Trendmaker Homes in Texas, TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado and the Carolinas and Winchester Homes in Maryland and Virginia. The company has two businesses: homebuilding, in which the company acquires and develops land and constructs and sells single-family detached and attached homes; and financial services, which consists of mortgage financing, title and escrow services, and property and casualty insurance agency operations.

Vector Group Ltd.

Vector Group is a holding company. The company is engaged principally in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes in the U.S. through its Liggett Group LLC (Liggett) and Vector Tobacco Inc. subsidiaries; and the real estate business through its New Valley LLC (New Valley) subsidiary. The company's business segments were Tobacco, and Real Estate. The Tobacco segment consists of the manufacture and sale of conventional cigarettes. The Real Estate segment includes the company's investment in New Valley, which includes Douglas Elliman, Escena, Sagaponack and investments in real estate ventures.

Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a designer, developer, and operator of resorts featuring hotel rooms, retail space, an array of dining and entertainment options, meeting and convention facilities, and gaming. Through its subsidiary, Wynn Macau, Limited, the company operates two integrated resorts in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China, Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau. In Las Vegas, NV, the company also operates and, with the exception of certain retail space, own Wynn Las Vegas and Encore Boston Harbor, an integrated resort in Everett, MA, adjacent to Boston.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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